Article

2005-03-17 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Washington and Hizbullah trade blows on disarmament

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Posted by Fred 2005-03-17 00:00:00 AM|| || Front Page|| [7 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 i dunno. Look at how the Sistani forces beat the Khomeinist/Sadrists in Iraq. Now granted Lebanon aint Iraq - A. Sistani aint located here B. The Shiites are a minority here, even if the largest C. The Shiites have a history of being oppressed by the Maronites and Israeli occupation, not by a Baathist dictator. Still, hes got to wonder, after Jan. 30th, if Khomeinism has a chance of dominating the Shiite community once force is put aside, and normal politics begins. By holding on to his weapons, and keeping the pot boiling, he keeps the Shiites isolated, and likely to turn to extremists like himself. I think he knows PRECISELY what hes doing.

And of course we CAN'T, realistically go in and disarm Hezb using US forces. Cmon, didnt the experience of Israel in the early 80s, and our own experience in Lebanon, teach us that? Lebanon politics is a swamp, and once you invade YOU become the issue, and the chess pieces that looked so favorable at first rearrange themselves to make your life hell. (oh, and we cant use the tactics Syria used) So hes right, wed rather broker a deal to disarm Hezbollah. But with the Lebanese, not with Syria or Iran. And we just might manage that, but it wont be easy, and will require great NUANCE.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-03-17 9:44:29 AM|| 2005-03-17 9:44:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 If the Iranians get knocked over, Hezbollah becomes irrelevant and goes out of business; no more money from da da. Hezbollah knows it; the Mullahs know it. That is why they making making political noises now.

When the times comes to knock off the ayatollahs, Hezbollah's and Iran's only hope for remaining a political force in the region is to 'legitimize' themselves.

Posted by badanov 2005-03-17 9:51:49 AM|| [http://www.rkka.org] 2005-03-17 9:51:49 AM|| Front Page Top

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