Article

2005-04-25 Africa: Subsaharan

U.N. starts getting Angola virus outbreak under control

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Posted by Fred 2005-04-25 00:00:00|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 There are widespread problems in taking samples and confirming the presence of the virus. Its unclear to what extent the reduction in cases is due to tigher classification criteria. The government has removed from the total about half the previously reported cases outside Uige.

Posted by phil_b 2005-04-25 12:11:29 AM|| 2005-04-25 12:11:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Phil, when you look at the SARS numbers, you find the same thing. The ending total was no where near the number originally reported. Also, remember that about 1/3 of the cases are "presumed" to have happened before the virus was identified on March 21. Sloppy data from WHO and an initial and understandable urge to classify everything as Marburg.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2005-04-25 8:34:34 AM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2005-04-25 8:34:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Chuck, I agree, but my point was the increase in cases may have been overstated previously and now the decline may be understated becuase of reclassification of cases. Hence the decline in new cases may be more apparent than real. It does look like it is declining but there is still plenty of opportunity for Marburg to spread to places that are much harder to access than the provincial capital. North east Angola is a big place with almost no roads. What will WHO, MSF do with an outbreak in a place (or places) that can only be accessed on foot.

Posted by phil_b 2005-04-25 7:13:41 PM|| 2005-04-25 7:13:41 PM|| Front Page Top

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