Article

2005-12-20 Iraq

UIA takes the lead in Iraqi election returns

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Posted by Dan Darling 2005-12-20 00:48|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 whats happening
either A. The shia, alienated by the Mosque bombings, etc stood even more firmly with the UIA than they did in January. So maybe that Reuters exit poll wasnt in Sadr City after all.
or B. The UIA parties, using their local control, have pulled off a Chicago style fraud, at least in Baghdad province, and maybe elsewhere

What could happen
A major tussle about the election returns.

IF UIA manages to stay united, and to shake off not only Sunni and Allawi pressure, but US pressure to revise things, there will be pressure for a broad govt. US ideal would then be a wall to wall coalition - UIA, Sunnis, Kurds, AND Allawi (well real US ideal would be for Dawa to break from SCIRI and Sadr, but thats unlikely) UIA will push to keep Allawi out. Getting SCIRI and the Sunnis to agree on extent of Iraqi federalism will be no easy feat.

The apparent inclination and ability of UIA,(esp SCIRI, IMO) to manipulate election returns is quite troubling.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-12-20 12:42|| 2005-12-20 12:42|| Front Page Top

#2 As incompentant as the UIA officials were in the interim govt, its hard to believe they were clever enough to manipulate the election.

Of course if they didn't manipulate the election, then it means that the Shia public didn't particularly care that they were incompenant in governance and that identity politics trumped it all.

Posted by mhw 2005-12-20 12:51|| 2005-12-20 12:51|| Front Page Top

#3 "As incompentant as the UIA officials were in the interim govt, its hard to believe they were clever enough to manipulate the election."

just cause they had difficulty running ministries in a modern manner, doesnt mean they couldnt pull off a local fraud. Certainly theyve been anything but incompetent in maintaining control of Basra and elsewhere. Much of the weakness at the center has been attibuted to Jaafari himself. I really doubt it was Jaafari who would have been directly involved in any fraud.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-12-20 12:54|| 2005-12-20 12:54|| Front Page Top

#4 LH is there some proof behind your allegations or are you speculating? Not that there is anything wrong with speculating, of course, but Iâm curious.

Posted by Secret Master 2005-12-20 13:12|| 2005-12-20 13:12|| Front Page Top

(click for full view)
BASED ON CURRENT DATA - From Iraqi Election Commission, inserted into Excel, and number-crunched...

Posted by BigEd 2005-12-20 17:45|| 2005-12-20 17:45|| Front Page Top

#6 Thanks alot BigEd.

Twafoq is the Sunni list.

Hewar is a Christian led list.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2005-12-20 19:36|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2005-12-20 19:36|| Front Page Top

#7 "It's going to be 'Let's Make a Deal," said Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "The important thing in some ways was that there was a large vote. The concerns that it would fall along ethnic and sectarian lines were validated."

Actually, that's comforting. It means that no faction maintains a clear majority so they must make a deal to form a coalition government.

Just because coalitions haven't worked in Italy (or Spain or half a dozen other places) doesn't mean they won;t work there.

Actually, coalition Parliaments do seem to work in some countries (Britain, Japan, for example).

At least it keeps the Iran-backed revolutionsists and ayatollah-toadies from gaining a significant hold on the government.

Posted by FOTSGreg">FOTSGreg 2005-12-20 20:55|| 2005-12-20 20:55|| Front Page Top

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