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2006-04-15 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

US allies losing ground on Irans nuclear advance

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Posted by Fred 2006-04-15 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Even presuming an indigenous, wholly Iranian-specific/dev uranium bomb, various bloggers on differ sites believe that Iran can realistically or potentially produce 1-4 low-yield uranium-based bombs, or at least 1-2, by end-of-summer and end-of-year 2006. All agree that once Iran succeeds in dev a uranium bomb(s), Iran will continue to intensify its dev towards missle-capable, plutonium-based nuke arsenals - WINDS OF CHANGE has posts reminding their membership that China, vv proxies North Korea and Pakistan {Alq Khan network], has been wilfully engaging in [anti-US] nuke proliferation, including enrichment/bomb design tech, for 10 years now. For now, in 2006 the main threat to American and Israeli interests are tech transfers to extremist groups - a nuclear event(s), regardless of magnitude, occurring in the ME only is still cause for America's concern, and still cause for US-led mil action againt Iran. Osama and AQ are already reported or believed to in possession of Russian Mafia/Black market-supplied "suitcase" bombs.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-04-15 00:58|| 2006-04-15 00:58|| Front Page Top

#2 Suitcase nuke reports are rubbish.

Posted by john 2006-04-15 08:00|| 2006-04-15 08:00|| Front Page Top

#3 You know, it really is tiresome how many people cry foul at the first sign of U.S. unilateralism, but call for just that whenever the U.S. uses multinational institutions, be they 6-party talks with the Norks, or the U.N. in the case of Iran.

Posted by Perfessor 2006-04-15 08:15|| 2006-04-15 08:15|| Front Page Top

#4 If Osama had a nuke weapon, he would have used it long ago.

As regards the Iranian Uranium bomb.. it is a mistake to assume it is a Little Boy gun type weapon too large to deliver on a missile.

The 4th Chinese nuclear weapon test in 1966 was delivered by a DF-2 missile. The design of that weapon was provided to Pakistan.
It is an implosion type weapon - less than 1 meter in diameter and weighing 500 kg.

Here is a photo from that Chinese test

Read this

IMPACT OF CHINESE COMMUNIST NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRESS ON NATIONAL SECURITY

REPORT OF JOINT COMMITTEE ON ATOMIC ENERGY
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

JULY 1967

The missile-delivered fourth Chinese test demonstrated that
the Chinese now have the capability to design a low yield fission
warhead compatible in size and weight with a missile.

October 27, 1966: Low intermediate (20 to 200kilotons).
As in the other tests, there is no evidence that plutonium was used.

All of the Chinese detonations have utilized enriched uranium (U 235 ) as the primary fissionable material. Uranium-238 was also present in all tests. The detonation of any device which also contains U 238 results in some fissioning of the U 238. The debris from their third and fifth tests indicated some thermonuclear reactions had involved lithium-6 in those devices.

Posted by john 2006-04-15 08:21|| 2006-04-15 08:21|| Front Page Top

#5
Iran took Chinese beryllium for nuclear weapons

15:39 2005-09-01
Iran obtained 20 kilograms (44 pounds) of beryllium for its nuclear weapons program from China last year, an Iranian opposition group claimed Thursday.

This further decreases estimates of the HEU needed for the Iranian bomb.

Whereas 60 kg would have been needed for a Little Boy design, the Fat Man design would require only 20 kg.

However this isn't 1944. The 1966 Chinese weapon was small enough to fit on a missile. This tells you (a) more advanced explosive lens design (b) beryllium reflected core (c) smaller overall weapon.

With the use of neutron reflector shells, the Chinese design probably uses <15 kg of HEU.

Posted by john 2006-04-15 08:47|| 2006-04-15 08:47|| Front Page Top

#6 As in the other tests, there is no evidence that plutonium was used.

All of the Chinese detonations have utilized enriched uranium (U 235 ) as the primary fissionable material

Ah John! Questions finally answered. I was afraid the Persians were building a tamper for a fusion weapon.

Posted by 6 2006-04-15 09:52|| 2006-04-15 09:52|| Front Page Top

#7 You gotta crawl before you can walk.

Serious design experience is needed before a nation can develop thermonuclear weapon. The Chinese have not, as far as we know, proliferated this design type.

A program with a lot of technicians, working from blueprints, like Pakistan, North Korea and Iran, is unlikely to achieve this jump in capability.
Note that even Israel, going from the traitor Vanunu's photographs, doesn't seem to have developed true two stage fusion weapons. The design Vanunu exposed was a sloika type device.
And Israel has real physicists working on their program.

Another nation with real physicists is India.
It took them more than 25 years before they had a two stage thermonuclear weapon. Granted, a lot of this was political reluctance to order development. They have yet to test it at full yield (quite problematic for their test site and their shaft construction techniques).

Posted by john 2006-04-15 13:16|| 2006-04-15 13:16|| Front Page Top

#8 One question is would the Chinese repeat their proliferation of U 235 ?
They provided several bombs worth of material to Pakistan. They later provided Pu.

Would they have the nerve to do the same with Iran?

Posted by john 2006-04-15 17:41|| 2006-04-15 17:41|| Front Page Top

#9 I strongly suspect that the package for Iran will include visits from SF supported inspection teams to conduct on site BDA of known atomic sites. If we found traces of Chinese fissionable materials I think MFN would be out the window. That's a big risk for China.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-04-15 17:59|| 2006-04-15 17:59|| Front Page Top

21:39 Asymmetrical Triangulation
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