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2006-10-07 Iraq

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Posted by GolfBravoUSMC 2006-10-07 17:57|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 The only reason I can think of why they won't break off is because the US ask them not to.

Posted by djohn66 2006-10-07 19:40|| 2006-10-07 19:40|| Front Page Top

#2 There are some practical issues for an independent Kurdish state. For one thing, it would provoke a strong pushback from Turkey, and whatever pushback Syria and Iran could generate -- these countries have Kurdish minorities and they will want to be sure those minorities don't break away to join into a larger Kurdistan.

It matters, because Kurdistan would be landlocked and therefore dependent on is neighbors for getting oil out and other supplies in. Plus being a relatively small country bordered on ALL sides by hostile neighbors .... sucks, to say the least.

Posted by lotp 2006-10-07 19:47|| 2006-10-07 19:47|| Front Page Top

#3 Oil = Money

Money talks - Bullshit Walks!

If their is a Buck to be made Syria and Turkey will find an accomodation. Both need Oil and both have empty trans-shipment pipelines from Iraq.

Posted by GolfBravoUSMC 2006-10-07 20:30|| 2006-10-07 20:30|| Front Page Top

#4 True enough. But don't underestimate how serious Turkey's military is about holding onto their Kurdish territories.

Posted by lotp 2006-10-07 20:36|| 2006-10-07 20:36|| Front Page Top

#5 Or that the thought hasn't occured to them that they could add Iraqi Kurdistan onto the bits they already occupy and get the oil while cutting the "middlemen" out of the equation.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2006-10-07 20:46|| 2006-10-07 20:46|| Front Page Top

#6 Yup. And, they control the flow of water from the rivers.

Back in the early 90s I met a senior Turkish minister who was quite open about the fact that in the middle east, water can trump oil as the basis for power.

Posted by lotp 2006-10-07 20:55|| 2006-10-07 20:55|| Front Page Top

#7 interesting discussion. I think that the Kurds will stay with Iraq. There are many benefits to being in a federation rather than alone. They will probably work out an arrangement for more independent rule. Our states were originally seperate entities. But I would expect from them something more like the EU should have been. The reasons to stick together are many for them and if they do, they will all be stronger and better because it will force a sort of secular rule. But so far their culture doesn't show much of a propensity to realize the benefits of working together. So who knows.

Posted by anon 2006-10-07 21:02|| 2006-10-07 21:02|| Front Page Top

#8 If Iran is taken down, then all bets are off - I still like a chunk of northern Syria for that Med port - none of the givens today will have quite the same flavor... except maybe Turkey, it'll still be a back-stabbing schizo paranoid undeserving of any of the support it currently receives from the US (e.g. EU membership). The Generals are certainly a nuanced bunch of assholes.

The Kurds are playing the game with the wise skill of a people who've been screwed by almost everyone on the planet.

Posted by .com 2006-10-07 21:22|| 2006-10-07 21:22|| Front Page Top

#9 Condoleezza Rice's visit to Kurdistan on Friday underlined American worries that Kurds may be pushing too hard too soon for autonomy powers

The Kurds will take a couple more years to consolidate their hold over the provinces containing Mosul and Kirkuk (doubling the size of Kurdistan and massively increasing their oil reserves). They know this and I suspect the point of this autonomy talk is to goad the Shiias into their own autonomous region.

Posted by phil_b 2006-10-07 23:30|| 2006-10-07 23:30|| Front Page Top

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