Article

2007-08-13 Iraq

Economic policy mistakes hurt Iraq: US official

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Posted by 2007-08-13 00:11|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top
File under: Iraqi Insurgency

#1 Reasonable as far as it goes. But "unrest" and lethal quasi-military or terrorist activity are far from the same thing. I'd submit that the refusal (not too strong a word) to restore/establish order, and to crush resistance in the readily identifiable places it was centered, was far, far more important than economic malaise.

A young Iraqi will not take $400 to plant an IED if he thinks (1) there's a decent chance he'll be killed, wounded, or captured (2) there's a decent chance his neighborhood, clan, or family will be subject to property/business confiscation, preventive detention, and other harsh penalties (3) he's seen or heard about other communities that were essentially shut down, put on WFP rations, and had their military-age males detained or punitively monitored and restricted.

Establishing order through intimidation and force is very hard, but can be done and done fairly quickly. Undercutting the economic motivation for misbehavior is even harder, and by definition takes much, much longer. So which did we choose? Neither, in most of Anbar and other Sunni areas that were the key to the problem.

Biggest economic policy mistake - not deregulating petroleum and energy immediately. Maintaining artificial prices had the predictable distorting effect on the local economy, but even more important created huge mafias built on oil smuggling (i.e., gave life to existing, and created new, clan and organized criminal networks built on oil smuggling). These criminal networks are a key part of the overall problem with order and rule of law.

Posted by Verlaine 2007-08-13 01:08|| 2007-08-13 01:08|| Front Page Top

#2 OK Paul, let me explain the matter to you. As was pointed out by a man of extraordinary perception, people come in three categories: makers, fakers, and takers. Arabs are takers by preference, or fakers by necessity. Nothing anyone can do---short of extermination & re-population, can give Iraq a sound economy.

Posted by gromgoru 2007-08-13 07:15|| 2007-08-13 07:15|| Front Page Top

#3 Missed in this discussion is the reciprocal point: Terrorist activity hurts investment. You just have to look at the Kurdish and Shia areas to notice how much more economic activity there is in those areas.

The Sunni (like the Whites in South Africa) could have used their greater wealth and managerial expertise to regain a strong position in Iraq. Instead they tried to terroize their way back into power. Now, not only are they out of power, but they're poor besides.

Al

Posted by Frozen Al 2007-08-13 12:21|| 2007-08-13 12:21|| Front Page Top

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