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2007-09-18 Iraq

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Posted by ryuge 2007-09-18 07:24|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top
File under: Iraqi Insurgency

#1 The worst mistake, in Agresto's view, was the failure to establish law and order in the wake of the military victory, before undertaking the grandiose project of attempting to create democracy in Iraq.

One of thoàse problems faced by the Americans after OIF was that the intense agitprop by islamists, ~~Commies~~ "pacifists" and Euros (specially Chirac) against teh war and this being for oiiiiiiiilllllll (don't forget also the Euro playing into AlQuaida's hands in propaganda terms) put them under intense pressure to transfer power to Irakis as soon as possible. In addition Allied forces depend for tehir suplies from several unstable Muslim countries whose governemnts could have been toppled if American occupation had been too heavy handed. Americans didn't have the latitude to delay for sevrel years the transfer to a new government like in post war Germany or to dictate Constitution like in Japan.

It is easy to say that the Americans shjould have done it differently when you ignore teh constraints.

Now you can notice I am putting the problems and tghe dead at the feet Of Chirac and of the pacifist movement.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2007-09-18 11:59|| 2007-09-18 11:59|| Front Page Top

#2 Also, we get here the classical mistake of all academics, imagining that on the average, people will behave in an orderly fashion with only a modicum of coercion. There was a lot of pent up demand for payback and mayhem in Saddamland, and hey what, demand got served...

Posted by M. Murcek">M. Murcek 2007-09-18 15:16|| 2007-09-18 15:16|| Front Page Top

#3 Additionally he falls into the

-A therefore B fallacy.

Just because A didn't work (well, good enough, at all; choose one) DOESN'T mean that B would have worked any better and may, in fact have worked worse!!

My opinion was for a different post-war strategy but there's no evidence that it would have been better.

Posted by AlanC 2007-09-18 16:57|| 2007-09-18 16:57|| Front Page Top

#4 I have to agree with AlanC.

The Shia were watching us to see if we were going to replace one group of Sunnis with another one. Had we kept the Baathists around we would have had 60% of Iraq mad at us instead of 20% that we actually did.

The bigger problem was that we were ignorent of Iraqi customs and language so we couldn't explain to them what we were trying to do. As we have become more familiar, our relations with the Iraqis is becoming much better.

The other "what if" involves the Sunnis. The deal they are taking now is basically the same one that Bremmer offered them in 2003. If they had taken the offer instead of Al Qaeda's they'd be alot better off today.

Al

Posted by Frozen Al 2007-09-18 18:36|| 2007-09-18 18:36|| Front Page Top

#5 Frozen Al, My wife the Kindergarten teacher has always told me about the "teachable moment".

When we were raising our two boys she would point out that there were certain times that a lesson would sink in, and others when it would just bounce off.

You had to wait for the former and strike while the iron was hot (to mix metaphors). My job requires the same. Sometimes you just have to let the client fail before they will take your advice.

Iraq was the same way.

My idea was that we should have spent the early days running the central government for them; and teaching / turning over the local stuff (garbage collection like stuff) as soon as possible to the leaders at the local level. As they develop the skills to run government at that level build up regions or provinces and then go for the whole enchilada.

Of course, that assumes that the rest of the world / Demonrats gave us the needed time and that's one hell of an assumption.

Posted by AlanC 2007-09-18 21:05|| 2007-09-18 21:05|| Front Page Top

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