Article

2007-10-05 Science & Technology

Avian Flu Mutating To More Easily H2H Strain, Not Yet Pandemic Strain

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Posted by Anonymoose 2007-10-05 16:39|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 This is the first bird flu doom-and-gloom we've heard for awhile. Their research grants must be running out.

Posted by Darrell 2007-10-05 17:41|| 2007-10-05 17:41|| Front Page Top

#2 I, for one, welcome our mutated virus masters.

Posted by Rex Mundi 2007-10-05 17:55|| 2007-10-05 17:55|| Front Page Top

#3 Darrell: just because you haven't seen more stuff on the progress of the Avian flu, doesn't mean it isn't out there:

http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

http://www.fluwikie.com/

https://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewforum.php?f=1

http://newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Bird+Flu

The bottom line is that an avian flu pandemic is seen by the worldwide health community as inevitable, and when it finally bursts out, it is going to be a mother.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-10-05 19:48|| 2007-10-05 19:48|| Front Page Top

#4 Ever since my childhood, Guam locals would simply chop off the heads/parts of known or preceived infected chickens, plus surrounding tissue(s) for good measure, then boil, broil, or barbecue the thing in a timely manner. I know of no one here on Guam thats ever gotten sick from Bird Flu per se. IMO > JUST MAKING THE WORLD SAFE FOR PROCESSED/FACTORY MEAT [read - BIG GOVT + BIG UNIONS? GLOBAL UNIONS?].

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-10-05 20:41|| 2007-10-05 20:41|| Front Page Top

#5 "an avian flu pandemic is seen by the worldwide health community as inevitable"
Even this scientist says "We don't know how many mutations are needed for them to become pandemic strains." The mutations required could take 200 more years to develop or maybe even not develop at all. This is Al-Gore-quality doom and gloom.

Posted by Darrell 2007-10-05 21:33|| 2007-10-05 21:33|| Front Page Top

#6 Darrell: Nope. The max time frame is about 2 years. This is because the animal vectors act much like a giant computer, continually deriving new and better strains, which then compete against each other. Thousands of H2H iterations will occur before even one of them is introduced to a human.

This current mutation may increase the number of human infections by a factor of 10 or 100 in the next year, as breeding in the upper trachea and sinuses is *the* most important mutation needed for easy H2H transmission.

And since the lethality of the disease is far worse than even the Spanish flu, its 2-week-or-so cyclic entry into H2H pandemic is going to be dramatic.

That is an outbreak, during which the disease silently spreads far beyond its boundaries, followed by about a two week hiatus, followed by exponential growth in the next outbreak.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-10-05 22:06|| 2007-10-05 22:06|| Front Page Top

#7 What the media aren't telling people is that if it mutates to a form more easily transmitted by humans, it could ALSO mutate into forms that are much less deadly. So while a lot of people might get it, it could mutate in such a fashion as to be no deadlier than typical influenza virii that circulate every year. To jump to the conclusion that it will be as deadly as it is now in its mutated form is simply fantasy. While that *might* be the case, chances are that it won't be the case.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2007-10-05 22:30|| 2007-10-05 22:30|| Front Page Top

#8 crosspatch: Again, as with so many other things associated with the Avian flu, it might transcend that as well. That is, one of the most lethal effects of the flu is that we have no immunity to it at all. In turn, this means that our immune response is dramatic.

This is called the "cytokine storm" effect, and has been documented with Avian flu. It means that a person's own immune system will destroy their lungs, even if the Avian flu mutates to a much less directly harmful strain. This is because the H5 factor is so totally alien that harmful or harmless, the immune system overreacts to fight it.

But so far, again unlike other flus, the Avian flu has managed to maintain its mortality rate at over 60%. At its height, the Spanish flu never beat 20% mortality. Flus typically never do that.

I once remarked that short of a nuclear bomb, the killer flu is the greatest high probability threat to the United States. And that was based on the idea that it would be no more deadly than the Spanish flu.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-10-05 23:07|| 2007-10-05 23:07|| Front Page Top

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