Article

2008-07-10 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Transition from La Nina to Neutral Underway in Equatorial Pacific

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Posted by mhw 2008-07-10 11:42|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top

#1 There is a seasonality to La Ninas making them more common in the northern winter. So, this may be just a temporary respite.

Posted by phil_b 2008-07-10 12:20|| 2008-07-10 12:20|| Front Page Top

#2 El Nino dumps rain on California and leaves Australia in drought. WHat does La Nina do? I thought it did the exact opposite.

Posted by rjschwarz 2008-07-10 12:52|| 2008-07-10 12:52|| Front Page Top

#3 The effects of El Nino and La Nina are strongest in the equitorial regions and weaker in the mid latitudes.

However, generally La Nina correlates with more numerous tropical storms in the Atlantic and fewer tropical storms in the E.Pacific.

La Nina also correlates with higher precip between 35N and 45N lattitude in the US.

The way this works in a causal sense isn't really understood very well; the correlations are thought to be the result of the atmospheric response to the ocean surface temps but no mathematical model has yet been developed which shows significant skill (i.e. beats regression to the mean climatology) in predicting these effects.

Posted by mhw">mhw 2008-07-10 13:59|| http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/]">[http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/] 2008-07-10 13:59|| Front Page Top

#4 El Nino and La Nina are the 500 pound gorillas of weather. And they are also indicative of the system as a whole, which is why they are so important. For instance, during this solar quiescent period, if La Nina reappears, and reappears strongly, it could make for a very cold winter.

This March, for example, the phenomenon had sea temperatures in SE Asia down by 2C degrees. This is why it was kicking butt on temperatures all over the northern hemisphere.

Conversely, a weak El Nino may stabilize falling temps, giving us a milder winter. The system seems to have a corrective mechanism, instead of a reinforcing one, so this is possible as well.

We shall see. But the one thing I wouldn't expect would be a strong El Nino.

Posted by Anonymoose 2008-07-10 14:24|| 2008-07-10 14:24|| Front Page Top

#5 I blame Bush

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-07-10 14:41|| 2008-07-10 14:41|| Front Page Top

#6 I blame dead anchovies.

For more information I'll have my PR staff talk to your PR staff. Thanks

Chimmey

Posted by Doc O Brian 2008-07-10 16:01|| 2008-07-10 16:01|| Front Page Top

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