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2008-07-10 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Is Tehran Bluffing?
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Posted by tu3031 2008-07-10 14:43|| || Front Page|| [5 views ]  Top

#1 For example, older Shahab-3 variants use highly-voliatle liquid fuel, which must be loaded onto the missile before it can launch

Does it smell like dawg food?
Posted by .5MT 2008-07-10 16:51|| www.cybernations.net]">[www.cybernations.net]  2008-07-10 16:51|| Front Page Top

#2 Iran is trying to do two things. First, they need to support oil prices. They feel they can damage us by keeping the price of oil high. Early in the week oil prices were on the way down and were nearly $10 a barrel less than they had been the week before. So Iran makes a bunch of statements and bingo ... the price goes back up on "supply jitters" in the minds of futures traders.

Secondly, Iran would rather rain destruction on others as retaliation rather than an outright first strike so being provocative is in their interest if it precipitates an attack on them. In their minds, that then gives them the justification they need to unleash terrorist attacks globally, attack Israel and probably unleash Hezbollah in Lebanon again.

Playing into this thinking would be security agreements Iran has with Russia, China, and Syria. If Iran is attacked, those mutual defense treaties come into force.

Of course Iran is bluffing, and they will continue to bluff until they feel they have the strength to completely eliminate Israel in a first strike and then they will do that regardless of the consequences because they don't mind martyring their entire population to do that.

In short ... the current government if Iran is insane. So don't go attempting to find rational explanations for irrational organizations, you are just wasting time.
Posted by crosspatch 2008-07-10 17:37||   2008-07-10 17:37|| Front Page Top

#3 You know it's funny. I remember reading an article back when the Shah was still in power that claimed that Iran was the powerhouse of the mid-east and that militarily, they were aiming for a position where the US would be hard put to beat them in a limited war.

Regardless of the accuracy of the analysis - it was MSM - it seems that these guys are continually pooping in the punchbowl.
Posted by Don Vito Cromp5558 2008-07-10 18:09||   2008-07-10 18:09|| Front Page Top

#4 Here's another worry for the persians. If any other enemy of Israel (take your pick) launches a strike which is not immediately traceable - as in within a few days, who is the most likely suspect? Now, who counts both Iraq and Israel and enemies, or at least rivals, and wouldn't mind seeing a little mutual mayhem? Finally, if all that happens, would Iraq in any way want to deny culpability and shift the blame?

All that is certainly a worry for Israel, but hasn't Iran dangerously exposed themselves to attack and retaliation from known and hidden enemies?

I suppose the remaining step is for Israel to simply pre-emptively blame Iran - not that it may alter anything.
Posted by Pearl Jeager2939 2008-07-10 19:01||   2008-07-10 19:01|| Front Page Top

#5 I know ima being in bad form for saying this from my Arm-Chair..

b.. but...

LETS F'N ROCK IRAN!
grrrr
Posted by RD">RD  2008-07-10 20:50||   2008-07-10 20:50|| Front Page Top

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