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2008-12-22 Home Front Economy

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Posted by tipper 2008-12-22 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 ...I've read more than a few articles in the last week warning that all we've seen so far is a windup to the big event: a catastrophic failure of several major banks and a Wall Street collapse down to the 5-6,000 range.

My question is this: I'm not a financier or a business major, and neither are any of my friends - but I know of NO ONE who didn't know and understand that homes were incredibly overpriced, that investments could not go on returning incredible yields forever, or keep selling lousy cars. Yet 'the smartest guys in the room' either didn't know or didn't care.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2008-12-22 06:09|| 2008-12-22 06:09|| Front Page Top

#2 They knew. However, that's what happens when special interests client democracy replaces voter constituent democracy, when those who kick into reelection campaigns have a greater say in the operation of the place than those upon whom the burden is ultimately placed. It's not about reality, it's about your piece of the action while it lasts.

Posted by P2k on holiday 2008-12-22 07:44|| 2008-12-22 07:44|| Front Page Top

#3 In spite of his gov't funded don't worry be happy 12 day Oahu holiday, I also believe Obama and what passes as our government see it coming. If the pattern of the Great Depression follows, and "bank holidays" come about, things will get ugly indeed. General Franks said we came very close to a declaration of Martial Law after 9/11. If banks close, supermarkets and gas stations could close as well. Gardening and rabbit farming never really made much of a comeback in urban areas after the last depression. Interesting times await us.

Posted by Besoeker 2008-12-22 08:14|| 2008-12-22 08:14|| Front Page Top

#4 Are you familiar with the expression "can't see forest for the trees", Mike?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2008-12-22 09:02|| 2008-12-22 09:02|| Front Page Top

#5 Mike, hindsight is 20/20 and recollections get selectively edited.

Hardly anyone here agreed with me when I was predicting Japan style stagnation and deflation, a year or more ago.

And yes, things will get worse in 2009. However, things always bottom out at some point and it's not clear until well afterward that the bottom has occurred.

Posted by phil_b 2008-12-22 09:18|| 2008-12-22 09:18|| Front Page Top

#6 Mike, some estimates are for a final DOW between 800-1500. Too much emphasis is put on the Great Depression for comparisons with this current problem.

Much can be learned from studying both the Panic of 1893 and the Panic of 1837, as they both had elements we see today that did not figure highly into the GD. (Have a look at their Wikis).

The Panic of 1893 shows what happens when the US government nears default, and 1837 shows what happens with a massive bond default.

Posted by Anonymoose 2008-12-22 16:48|| 2008-12-22 16:48|| Front Page Top

#7 I'm looking for the Dow to hit 400 on the news that Sol has fallen off the Main Sequence. Please keep this under your hat.

Posted by .5MT 2008-12-22 17:58|| www.cybernations.net]">[www.cybernations.net] 2008-12-22 17:58|| Front Page Top

#8 That's bad juju for my renewable energy portfolio. Should I sell before the supernova?

Posted by ed 2008-12-22 18:47|| 2008-12-22 18:47|| Front Page Top

#9 Anonymoose, the Panic of 1837 was also fueled by massive new tarrifs that hit the Southerners hard. Many went bankrupt. One reason for the later Secesion was because the Republican platform included passing a new tarrif that would impose a 48% cost on imported goods. In other words, if a merchant sent 1 million dollars worth of raw materials to England or France and got 1 million dollars' worth of finished products the Federal Government would get $480,000. No one could survive that.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2008-12-22 18:52|| 2008-12-22 18:52|| Front Page Top

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