Article

2009-04-12 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

UNIFIL on its way to disintegrating w/ Polish pullout

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Posted by lotp 2009-04-12 00:00|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 Less human shields for Hizbullah.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2009-04-12 06:22|| 2009-04-12 06:22|| Front Page Top

#2 An excellent opportunity for UNIFIL to be replaced by a few of the more orderly, mixed Iraqi divisions. Undoubtedly, Hizbollah would try it on against them, and the Iraqis would kick seven bells out of Hizbollah.

The Iraqis would demilitarize the heck out of southern Lebanon, and they know how. And the Lebanese Shiites would feel very safe with them instead of Hizbollah.

The Syrians wouldn't dare mess with the Iraqis. And even the Israelis would be sweetness and light to them.

By just being there, it would put a serious damper on Hamas as well. Egypt would be happier with less Iranian influence on their doorstep.

This is just the gift that keeps on giving.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-04-12 13:40|| 2009-04-12 13:40|| Front Page Top

#3 The problem, Anonymoose, is that the Iraqis are not necessarily any fonder of Israel than the rest of the Muslim Middle East; Israel therefore cannot assume increased security as a result of Iraqi quashing of Hizb'allah nonsense.

Posted by Pancho Unusock2445 2009-04-12 19:06|| 2009-04-12 19:06|| Front Page Top

#4 Pancho Unusock2445

Whoops! Lost my cookie for a moment.

Posted by trailing wife in Buffalo 2009-04-12 19:07|| 2009-04-12 19:07|| Front Page Top

#5 Oh, I'm sure the Iraqis have no great love for Israel, but this would be a national prestige assignment. The issue here really isn't Israel, but Sunni and Shiite, with a healthy dollop of Christian. In essence, what they left back home.

The situation they would be put in could be very carefully crafted, so that Iraqi Kurdish Peshmurga, who get along fairly well with Israelis, would be on the border proper. This might even result with some mutual diplomacy between the Israelis and the Kurds, which would be a good thing.

This would leave the Iraqi Shiite and Sunni to essentially take over the job of Hizbollah, being non-threatening to the Shiite Lebanese, while their Sunnis would reassure both the Sunni Lebanese and the Sunni powers that Lebanon wasn't going to be converted to a Shiite nation.

The Hizbollah would be on the outs, as would support for Hamas, and the Syrian Alawite Shiites would be wary of the the threat posed by their own Sunni majority.

Ironically, it might work very well, with the big losers being Iran and Syria. A more stable Lebanon would be the big winner.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-04-12 19:22|| 2009-04-12 19:22|| Front Page Top

#6 Thank you, Anonymoose. Your argument now makes a great deal of sense to me.

Posted by trailing wife in Buffalo 2009-04-12 19:48|| 2009-04-12 19:48|| Front Page Top

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