Article

2011-02-05 Africa North

Debate: Will Egypt become a democracy within a year?

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Posted by ryuge 2011-02-05 00:00|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 This isn't about Democracy and there was no clear agitation by any specific leader before this. This is just anti Mubarak, not pro anything. Egypt will go from one dictator to another just as they always have throughout their history.

This didn't start with Tunisia, this started with the murder of the Coptic Christians.

Posted by crosspatch 2011-02-05 01:16|| 2011-02-05 01:16|| Front Page Top

#2 Egypt will go from one dictator to another just as they always have throughout their history.

If they're lucky. If they are not, Al-Ikhwān will give them a Theocracy that'll make Iran look like a model of enlightenment.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2011-02-05 06:03|| 2011-02-05 06:03|| Front Page Top

#3 The big question is not will they become a democracy, but could they become a republican-democracy?

What they have now, to a great extent, is like a European social democracy, with all its failings. They are ruled by a wealthy elite, the majority rules with disregard to the minorities, they have a bloated and corrupt bureaucracy and sky high unemployment.

And yet they have some good things as well. A fairly professional and well-liked military, considerable agriculture and industry. Lots of potential for growth and entrepreneurship.

Which points to what they need. They need much less government and regulation, and a more laissez-faire marketplace. They need a more secular government, especially the police and courts.

They also have some incredibly bad problems, starting with their 40% unemployment, but leading to the horrific problem that 10% of their population are infected with hepatitis C.

Posted by Anonymoose 2011-02-05 09:10|| 2011-02-05 09:10|| Front Page Top

#4 It doesn't seem like the anti-Mubarak protesters have much direction or organization. I'd worry that there are opportunists who would exploit the chaos such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. They do have organization and focus. I'd worry.

Posted by JohnQC 2011-02-05 12:55|| 2011-02-05 12:55|| Front Page Top

#5 Ayaan Hirsi Ali wrote an op-ed for the New York Times talking about exactly that concern, JohnQC. I'd no idea she'd been an active member of the Muslim Brotherhood in her youth.

In 1985, as a teenager in Kenya, I was an adamant member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Seventeen years later, in 2002, I took part in a political campaign to win votes for the conservative party in the Netherlands.

Those two experiences gave me some insights that I think are relevant to the current crisis in Egypt. They lead me to believe it is highly likely but not inevitable that the Muslim Brotherhood will win the elections to be held in Egypt this coming September.

When I was 15 and considered myself a member of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, there were secular political groups in the diasporas of Pakistanis, Yemenis and Somalis, who lived in exile in Nairobi like my family. These loosely organized groups had vague plans for building their countries into peaceful, prosperous nations. These were dreams they never realized.

The Muslim Brotherhood did more than dream. With the help of money from Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries, they established cells in my school and functioning institutions in my neighborhood. There were extracurricular activities for all age groups. There were prayer and chant hours, as well as communal Koran readings. We were encouraged to become volunteers, to help the indigent, to spread Allahs message. They established charities to which we could tithe, which then provided health and educational centers.

It is true that the movement was violent, but we tend to underestimate in the West the Brotherhoods ability to adapt to reality and implement lessons learned. One such adaptation is the ongoing debate within the network on the use of violence. There are two schools of thought within the network, and both of them invoke the Prophet Mohammed.

Those who want instant jihad hark back to the time when the Prophet had small armies that defeated massive ones, as in the battles of Badr and Uhud. The nonviolent branch of the Brotherhood emphasizes the Prophets perseverance and patience. They emphasize dawa (persuasion through preaching and by example) and above all a gradual multi-generational process in coming to power and holding on to it. Above all, they argue for taqiyyah, a strategy to collaborate with your enemies until the time is ripe to defeat them or convert them to Islam.

She lays out a powerful argument that unless the diverse secular, anti-Mubarak groups find unity in a powerful idea of what they are for, and work the politics of the people as effectively as the Muslim Brotherhood has been doing for decades, they will lose.

Posted by trailing wife 2011-02-05 14:26|| 2011-02-05 14:26|| Front Page Top

#6 I don't think this is a serious question. Especially in view of the issues raised by 'Spengler' on his Asia Times column, mentioned elsewhere today on the 'Burg.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-02-05 16:22|| 2011-02-05 16:22|| Front Page Top

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