Article

2011-02-05 Africa North

Beware: Egypt's Army is Still Full of Egyptians

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Frozen Al 2011-02-05 12:56|| || Front Page|| [7 views ] Top

#1 The author Jerry Pournelle has many sensible things to say about the situation in Eqypt without the wishful thinking contaminating most other commentators, a lengthy quote:
The Army is now apparently trying to stop both protestors and counter protestors from reaching the city center. I have heard little about logistics operations: the Army has to feed its troops. Who is feeding the -- people, crowds, mobs, gangs, goons, protestors, choose a noun -- in the public squares? Supplying those manning the barricades has always been the major problem when revolutionaries try to take over a country by barricading the city streets. Napoleon III thought to end Parisian revolutions by rebuilding Paris, tearing down buildings and widening major boulevards, paving them without the cobblestones which Parisian had used to barricade the narrow streets of Paris in more than a dozen uprisings. That didn't save the Second Empire, but it did change the course of the revolt after France's defeat by the German Second Reich. But the Third Republic is another story for another time.

Food supplies are running low. The Army has the logistics to feed crowds. Which crowds will it feed? Without food and water, big protest crowds have a limited existence.

The Voice of America has chosen the protestors. This will not be remembered fondly by the Army, which would be far happier with an orderly change from Mubarak to another government with a President of the Army's choosing. Note that an instant departure by Mubarak is likely to benefit organized political groups -- such as the Muslim Brotherhood, read Hamas -- since Mubarak has not allowed much in the way of an organized opposition. If Egypt is to have an orderly successor with some voice for the opposition -- about the best anyone can hope for -- then the opposition needs some time to organize. If Mubarak goes tomorrow, they will not have that, and if that is followed by a "fair" election, it is likely to look a bit like Gaza when it ends. That is known as one man, one vote, once, and has been the fate of many African nations. We can endure chaos in the Congo; Egypt is a different story.

If Egypt democratically elects a pro-Hamas government, the "land for peace" deal under which Israel gave back Sinai and let Egypt have a border with Gaza will be remembered with contempt and fear.

The United States should not rejoice at the precipitate fall of an ally who has maintained the peace. Egypt needs reforms; but the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas are not the answer. The Mamelukes know this. They also know that if the President -- their President and Commander in Chief -- flees from a Cairo mob. the world will be a different place. The Hashemites and Saudis know this also.

It is not yet time for the American people to dance in the streets as much of the Arab world did on September 12, 2001.

=================

I note that the crowd is now described as "tens of thousands." If government have to fall because 100,000 people turn out to barricade the capital, we are in the kind of world envisioned by the Framers, who built Washington DC with the Capitol in the center, and broad open streets and malls radiating from it -- designed so that one regiment of Federal soldiers could defend it with a battery of cannon. The crowds would have been smaller in those times, of course, but rule by a capital city mob was one of the options rejected by those who designed DC. The Convention was held two years before the French Revolution, but the evolution of the Federal government came simultaneously with the turmoil that followed 1789.

Plebiscitary democracy is no friend of good order or the American republic. An instant election in Egypt will reflect the abilities of the organized against the disorganized.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-02-05 16:31|| 2011-02-05 16:31|| Front Page Top

#2 Tough shit, if we can't deal with a change in government in Egypt then we have bigger problems that we can dream of. I suspect the juices can take care of the 3 passes again if necessary. No big deal, let 'em find their way or let 'em get lost again.

Posted by Zombie Hillary Lover 2011-02-05 17:19|| 2011-02-05 17:19|| Front Page Top

#3 Zombie, that's not even a half-intelligent troll.

Egypt sits at the nexus of the problems in the Middle East. It has a border with Israel, Gaza, Sudan and Libya. It's right in the middle. It has a thin veneer of a pro-western military officer elite and a substantial proportion of the male population that has both military training (compulsory draft there) and a strong dislike towards the West, America and Israel.

Our power to 'deal' with a change in government there is limited. Our aid goes mostly to their military. Cut that and you cut the last strings that keep that military oriented towards us. We have little leverage over Mubarak now that Bambi has chosen to cut him down in his hour of need. We have no leverage over the Muslim Brotherhood (e.g., the Egyptian version of Hamas). We have no leverage over its catspaw, ElBaradei. We have no leverage with other opposition parties in Egypt because -- there aren't any other opposition parties in Egypt.

It's said that a big part of the rebellion in Egypt today is a middle class rebellion, led in part by people who are tired of oafs and thugs running the country. But they aren't organized and they'll lose out in the end.

We'll end up with either a Mubarak beholden to his new vice-president, Suleiman, and on the outs in September, or Suleiman taking power now with the understanding that America is pretty much useless to him, or another military strongman, or a Muslim Brotherhood run government led by ElBaradei and backed by the Iranians.

Tough shit, indeed.

That last option will precipitate a new war. Israel will NOT allow a mobilized Egyptian army in the Sinai; the whole point of the Camp David accords was Israel giving up the Sinai in return for a guarantee that Egypt would NOT move in its military. With all the problems Israel has on its northern border and with Gaza, it simply can't allow itself to have a 'three-front' war.

It won't.

So keep talking tough, Zombie, and let's see how quickly you dive under your bed when the shooting starts.

Posted by Steve White 2011-02-05 17:59|| 2011-02-05 17:59|| Front Page Top

#4 Keep in mind that Israel's "Land for peace" deal with Egypt is tied closely to the West's "Oil for Jihad" deal.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-02-05 18:58|| 2011-02-05 18:58|| Front Page Top

00:01 RandomJD
23:26 Thing From Snowy Mountain
23:13 JosephMendiola
22:49 JosephMendiola
22:30 JosephMendiola
21:57 Fire and Ice
21:30 Shieldwolf
21:04 trailing wife
20:55 JohnQC
20:52 tu3031
20:47 USN,Ret
20:46 swksvolFF
20:13 Uncle Phester
20:04 Joger Oppressor of the Lichtensteiners9577
20:01 Water Modem
19:55 Glenmore
19:50 tipper
19:14 Zhang Fei
19:12 Skidmark
19:01 GolfBravoUSMC
18:58 Anguper Hupomosing9418
18:55 Anguper Hupomosing9418
18:54 Procopius2k
17:59 Steve White