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2007-10-14

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Posted by Fred 2007-10-14 00:00|| || Front Page|| [13 views ] Top

#1 perhaps this time, the fight will be taken to Damascus, where it's funded and armed (with a lot of Iranian help). I think the Israelis have proven the Syrians have NO defense to attack. Time to disrupt Hezb's supply line? Or wait and cut off the snake's head and body at the same time?

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-10-14 00:09|| 2007-10-14 00:09|| Front Page Top

#2 Interesting analysis. I do think the major thesis is correct: Syria can't allow a new presidential election. To do so enshrines the March 14th Movement as the government for another five years.

Syrian foreign policy since the end of WWII has been to create a 'greater Syria'. While Ba'athist ideology may be dead, the territorial dream remains very much alive in the minds of PencilNeck and his cronies. Lebanon has to be subjugated, the Golan has to come back to Syria somehow, and then Jordan is next. That's greater Syria.

it's interesting that the Alawites, now declared official Shi'a, have been able to pull off an alliance with the Iranians given that most of their population is Sunni. If I were a world-class troublemaker and in charge of our own foreign policy, I'd try to exploit that in nefarious ways. The Syrians have had the luxury of playing offense the past twenty years since Assad's daddy crushed the Islamic Brotherhood. It's time to bring the fear back.

In the meantime, Syria-Iran-Hezbollah has to consolidate their grip on Lebanon. They need the whole nation-state to do their bidding so that they can continue their encirclement of Israel. So I think you've got it pretty close on this one, Fred.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2007-10-14 00:22|| 2007-10-14 00:22|| Front Page Top

#3 Good analysis.

Syria wants their colony back. But Iran wants both a deflection from the pressure being placed on them and a leverage for 'negotiations'. Lebanon would be that (Gaza might be the other, but Hamas proved they couldn't lead a parade out of a paper bag with the route marked and that they don't follow instructions well). Perhaps other nations that are supporting those two also have a hand in it.

Posted by Pappy 2007-10-14 01:19|| 2007-10-14 01:19|| Front Page Top

#4 Lebanon is coming

Don't get any on ya'.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-10-14 02:52|| 2007-10-14 02:52|| Front Page Top

#5 It feels like Lebanon is ready to flare up again. I think this will be both the "indirect" answer of Syria and Iran to the Israel/US attack last month. One of the big questions though is how the UNIFIL will deal (not deal) with this upcoming conflict.....

Posted by Zebulon Shomorong3242 2007-10-14 07:41|| 2007-10-14 07:41|| Front Page Top

#6 It doesn't feel like Ferdinand because there's no Triple Entente willing to back the Lebanese up against the Central Powers' bullying. Ima thinkin Czechoslovakia 1938 by proxies.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-10-14 08:22|| 2007-10-14 08:22|| Front Page Top

#7 If Lebanon erupts into full scale war, UNIFIL will either be taken as hostages, or left alone I think. Although this time, I don't think Israel will stop will just going after Hazbollah. Syria will pay the full price with full US (well, except for Rice) blessing.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-10-14 08:48|| 2007-10-14 08:48|| Front Page Top

#8 What is the relationship between the March 14th Movement and the Lebanese army ?

Posted by wxjames 2007-10-14 11:04|| 2007-10-14 11:04|| Front Page Top

#9 What is the relationship between the March 14th Movement and the Lebanese army ?

Don't know, but it's a great question.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2007-10-14 11:51|| 2007-10-14 11:51|| Front Page Top

#10 That's a good question. Going down the list of possibilities:

1. The Leb army would defend the present government. It's got the support of the populace, there's a new-found sense of pride and identity as a national force. However, it could also fragment. Problem is that doesn't have the strength or the assets to match Hesb'allah.

2. The Siniora government could request outside assistance; the French would likely respond. In that case, it would have to be done very quickly. The Leb army would have to hold out long enough for relief to arrive; that's not a likely scenario.

3. The U.S. could send support in conjunction with the French and any other forces. That too involves a time-lag or pulling out troops from Iraq. I suspect the Iranian or Syrian supported insurgency will stage sympathetic attacks to tie down coalition troops.

4. NATO could respond, especially if European troops are attacked. Given the Western Euros' current paucity of... concern(France aside - Lebanon is in their sphere of interest), that's as likely as me shedding 40 pounds by next week.

The one certainty is that the UN will be useless; China, Russia, and their proxies will see to that.

In any case, the clincher is that it all becomes a planned distraction, taking heat off Iran and to a lesser extent, Syria.

Posted by Pappy 2007-10-14 12:01|| 2007-10-14 12:01|| Front Page Top

#11 Do the French have the assets to respond significantly? I thought they had troops all over Francophone Africa, plus Afghanistan.

Posted by trailing wife 2007-10-14 12:48|| 2007-10-14 12:48|| Front Page Top

#12 How about the US Navy ? If we had a list of priority targets, we could independently whack Hezbollah keeping them from getting their shit together long enough to launch an effective campaign against the Lebanese army.

Posted by wxjames 2007-10-14 13:23|| 2007-10-14 13:23|| Front Page Top

#13 well a regional power, as France is wont to be, would see that a period of crisis/instability is coming, and project power to secure their troops, stabilize the population, and put down the insurrection. Where's the De Gaulle? that'll tell you how serious France is or osn't...

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-10-14 13:49|| 2007-10-14 13:49|| Front Page Top

#14 France is a bit mroe ready than you might imagine, thanks to Sarkozy. And if France is asserting itself in its old colonial areas as a savioer, then that brings the old Gallic Pride to the forefront - which does cross party lines there from what I can ell.

Posted by OldSpook 2007-10-14 15:11|| 2007-10-14 15:11|| Front Page Top

#15 Pappy, our forces could indeed help with an intervention in Lebanon. Problem is, they'd have to go through Syria. Hmmmm ...

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2007-10-14 15:12|| 2007-10-14 15:12|| Front Page Top

#16 I think that if anything happens this time, Israel will whack Damascus, hard. That's the best way to buy enough time to get its mainly reserve army together to take on Hezbollah. I also don't think you'll see much of a waiting game, using the Air Force to "neutralize" the Hezbollah rockets. Israel will strike with a vengence against the Litani, and anything that stands in its way to the river. I think you'll also see a huge attack on Gaza, to keep Hamas from attacking into Israel's southern flank. Whether they attack Fatah and the West Bank will probably be dependent upon what Fatah does. I do believe Israel's best chance is to totally neutralize everything between Beirut and the Litani. Fire and brimstone (napalm and willie pete) would be a great start, with iron bombs, JDAMS, rockets, artillery, CBUs, and anything else in the Israeli arsenal as backup. I don't think Israel will worry about "civilian" casualties this time, as they know Hezbollah will be hiding among civilians, and trying to be careful will only get Israeli soldiers killed. I wouldn't be surprised if a nuke or two went off somewhere in the Muddled East during the process, especially if Iran got involved. A nuke against Qom and another against IRGC headquarters would put the entire nation of Iran in disarray, and I believe Israel is both knowledgable of that, and willing to take the chance.

Things could get VERY interesting before Christmas.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2007-10-14 15:26|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2007-10-14 15:26|| Front Page Top

#17 OS - I could actually see France stepping up to the plate with Sarkozy in charge. We could also provide a "distraction" on the eastern border with air-runs, psy-ops, and encouraging "insurrection" among the Syrian minorities... sauce for the impotent gander, so to speak. Syria needs to be taken out hard and early so Nasrallah has no external support

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-10-14 15:49|| 2007-10-14 15:49|| Front Page Top

#18 I think that if anything happens this time, Israel will whack Damascus, hard. That's the best way to buy enough time to get its mainly reserve army together to take on Hezbollah.

Israel won't support the Lebanese government. However, it just might take on Hesb'allah's installations that are a threat to Israel.

Things could get VERY interesting before Christmas.

Yeah. Something(s) caused them to move up the timetable...

Posted by Pappy 2007-10-14 16:23|| 2007-10-14 16:23|| Front Page Top

#19 Israel faces no threat with the current Maronite/Shia/Sunnis mix barring Hezb intervention. If Syrian/Iranian/Hezb influence were removed (militarily, I assume), the country might just stabilize and flourish.. then get rid of the Paleo ~~Cold Sores~~ Refugee Camps

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-10-14 16:54|| 2007-10-14 16:54|| Front Page Top

#20 U.S. 6th Fleet is in the Mediterranean. This situation between Syria and Israel has been building for some time now. What capability does Syria have?

Posted by JohnQC 2007-10-14 17:59|| 2007-10-14 17:59|| Front Page Top

#21 Lebanon, Gaza, West Bank, Syria are just part of the Big Crock Pot that has been simmering for years now. Due to the inactions and messages of weakness of the Israeli government, Iran, Syria, and their respective proxies have been slowly but steadily encircling Israel. They have had their noses bloodied, but they have not been really wacked, like they should have to stop their activities.

There will be war here soon, like Fred predicts. The one thing going for Israel is that Hizb'Allah, Syria, et al will jump the gun and give Israel a chance to take them out. Israel better take this one, because if they don't, it will become just another stalemate, which pushes Isreal back further against the wall, making it closer to having them use their nuclear hole card.

The US has been derelict, too. There have been no serious consequences for Syria's dirty little nefarious business in Iraq. We have become a paper tiger. Condi's activities have been a joke and an international embarassment.

The US and Israeli govts have not done their homework, and a lot of good people in both countries will pay a heavy price.

Well, we are where we are and I hope that our respective governments do what is necessary and right and quick f*cking up. When you show weakness to thugs, the thugs move against you.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2007-10-14 19:01|| 2007-10-14 19:01|| Front Page Top

#22 JohnQC, I'm not the intel guy here, but I'll take a shot at the question, what capability does Syria have?

Conventional arms: not a lot. They have some quantity, but quality, training and maintenance are poor. Their air force isn't very good and would not stand up more than an hour against the IAF. They have tanks but these are mostly obsolete. Their army might fight well on the defensive for a little while until they got tired of being blasted and out-flanked.

They do have a vaunted air defense system, I'm told, but apparently no one threw the power switch the day the IAF hammered the nuke site.

Not conventional: Syria has a large quantity of SCUD-C and -D missiles, and some shorter range missiles. While they could mount conventional warheads on them, that would be nothing more than an irritant and an invitation for the Israelis to go ape on them. They're known for having substantial chemical wepaons, have an unknown but suspected biological weapons capability, and (especially now) have no nuclear capability.

Terrorist: they're great friends with the Hezbies and with various flavors of Paleo scum. They could easily use those connections to support a general attack on Israel.

That's the short version. If Dan Darling were here he'd give you the detailed version.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2007-10-14 20:05|| 2007-10-14 20:05|| Front Page Top

#23 How do these calculations change if Russia crashes the party?

Posted by Jules 2007-10-14 20:31|| 2007-10-14 20:31|| Front Page Top

#24 Jules, not in Russian interest. At least not at this time. Waiting for spoils to be easily attainable is the name of their game. Also, simmering and protracted conflics are very good for arms deals. Involvement would create a partial negative cash flow. Why to wreck good times?

Posted by twobyfour 2007-10-14 20:43|| http://www.twobyfour.info]">[http://www.twobyfour.info] 2007-10-14 20:43|| Front Page Top

#25 JohnQC, I'm not the intel guy here, but I'll take a shot at the question, what capability does Syria have?

Steve, they have a lot more than Hizbollah had by themselves, and look at what they were able to do.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2007-10-14 22:02|| 2007-10-14 22:02|| Front Page Top

#26 Syria needs to be taken out hard and early so Nasrallah has no external support

Absolutely, Frank.

Lebanon, Gaza, West Bank, Syria are just part of the Big Crock O Shit

Fixed that for ya, AP.

The one thing going for Israel is that Hizb'Allah, Syria, et al will jump the gun and give Israel a chance to take them out. Israel better take this one, because if they don't, it will become just another stalemate, which pushes Isreal back further against the wall, making it closer to having them use their nuclear hole card.

Word, AP. Too bad Muslims are so ~~overconfident~~ dense that they have no concept of this.

Jules, not in Russian interest. At least not at this time. Waiting for spoils to be easily attainable is the name of their game.

Le bingo, twobyfour. Three words: Low. Hanging. Fruit.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-10-14 23:07|| 2007-10-14 23:07|| Front Page Top

#27 We should have helped and encouraged Israel to fight Hezbollah during that last little dust up they had and NOT tried to arrange for any kind of truce. We should have flown our heavy bombers over southern Lebanon with a vengeance to pound the crap out of Hezbollah if for no other reason than they really are an extension of IRGC. My argument is that this upcoming nonsense could have been nipped in the bud at that time with decisive action. Hezbollah was hurt but not bad enough to keep them from claiming victory. Now, it seems, Pencil Neck in conjunction with Hezbollah and with support from Iran has declared war on Lebanon which will put Israel in mortal danger all over again.

Posted by Abu Uluque6305 2007-10-14 23:40|| 2007-10-14 23:40|| Front Page Top

23:56 Zenster
23:45 Abu Uluque6305
23:40 Abu Uluque6305
23:38 BA
23:38 JosephMendiola
23:18 BA
23:18 DMFD
23:11 Bright Pebbles
23:09 BA
23:07 Zenster
22:57 badanov
22:52 Nero
22:42 BA
22:36 BA
22:34 JosephMendiola
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22:26 JosephMendiola
22:25 Zenster
22:20 JosephMendiola
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22:02 Abdominal Snowman
21:57 Abdominal Snowman