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2023-03-27 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
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Will Russia be able to reconcile Syria and Saudi Arabia?
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[REGNUM] Unlike Turkey or Qatar, the fate of the Syrian opposition or the creation of a transitional executive body is not so important for Saudi Arabia, despite declarations and statements. At the current stage, as before the start of the civil war, Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon remains a fundamental issue for Riyadh.
 Saudi and Syrian officials say the countries are moving closer to an agreement to restore diplomatic ties after talks brokered by Russia. In particular, the issue of resuming the work of the Saudi Consulate General in the SAR and Syria's participation in the League of Arab States (LAS) is being discussed in essence. A decision on these issues can be made after the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which falls at the end of April.
Continued from Page 4
These events take place against the backdrop of China's successful Saudi-Iranian normalization mission, and Moscow, in turn, demonstrates that it does not intend to give up the initiative and continues to assert itself as a key arbiter in the Middle East. At the same time, Russia intends to continue playing on two fields simultaneously, making efforts to normalize relations both between Damascus and Ankara, and Riyadh and Damascus .
THE PATH TO NORMALIZATION BETWEEN RIYADH AND DAMASCUS LIES THROUGH MOSCOW
 After a failed attempt to arrange a visit by the Saudi foreign minister to Syria immediately after the earthquake, when the first Saudi plane carrying humanitarian supplies arrived in the SAR in early February, Russia continued to work on the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement.
Apparently, relevant negotiations were held with the Saudi side during a visit to Moscow by KSA Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on March 9.
In response to Saudi peace initiatives over the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian side put forward its own plan to normalize relations between Riyadh and Damascus. With Syria, this issue could be discussed during a visit to Russia by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on March 15.
Russia's talks with Syria and Saudi Arabia on the topic of normalization were accompanied by covert trips to Saudi Arabia by high-ranking representatives of the Syrian regime to resolve the most pressing problems.
So, last week, according to the Arab media , KSA was visited by General Maher al-Assad , commander of the 4th Panzer Division and the president's younger brother. It was reported that the purpose of the visit of the influential “commander” is related to the problem of drug trafficking from Syria.
Probably, Saudi Arabia, as a precondition for the normalization of relations, drew the attention of Damascus to the need to combat smuggling and drug production in this country, primarily the Syrian captagon, which filled the black markets of the Gulf countries, and in particular Saudi Arabia, becoming a real disaster there.
The division, led by Maher Assad, controls the areas of southern Syria, where illegal border crossings to Jordan are located, through which the captagon enters the Gulf countries.
Somewhat earlier, also in March, according to Saudi sources , the curator of all Syrian security services, General Ali Mamluk , and the director of Syrian intelligence, General Hossam Luqa, visited Riyadh and held talks with Saudi Arabian officials. This was already the second visit of the Mamluk to the KSA. The first one took place back in 2019 . It was then that relations between the SAR and the KSA began to gradually improve, and observers started talking about "forming the basis for new relations between Damascus and Riyadh."
One should also pay attention to the recent visit of Bashar al-Assad to Oman, which, along with the Saudi-Iranian normalization and Russian mediation, could push the KSA to intensify contacts between Riyadh and Damascus.
In particular, following the results of Assad's trip to Muscat, some Arab sources indicated that the Syrian president offered mediation in resolving the Yemeni crisis and was ready to call on the Houthis and Iran to make concessions.
In turn, Saudi Arabia may be interested in Syria's intervention in the situation in Lebanon: Damascus is able to influence the resolution of the political crisis in this country, taking into account Saudi interests. If the SAR succeeds here, it will mark the gradual return of Syria to the pragmatic policies of Hafez al-Assad , the father of the current president.
The latter managed to maintain a balance in relations between Damascus and Riyadh and be both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the KSA, a guarantor of Saudi interests in Lebanon.
HOW HAFEZ AL-ASSAD BALANCED BETWEEN IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA
After Hafez al-Assad came to power in the SAR in 1970, he restored relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia, severed during the rule of the left wing of the Ba'ath Party in the 1960s. Assad Sr. was able to enlist the support of the KSA on many of the problems facing Damascus.
In August 1973, the Syrian President visited Riyadh, where he held talks with King Faisal. The latter promised Syria and Egypt assistance in their planned military operation against Israel. And he kept his word by imposing an oil embargo that provoked a global energy crisis after the US and a number of European countries began emergency deliveries of weapons to Israel against the backdrop of the successful advance of the Syrian and Egyptian troops.
In 1974, King Faisal himself visited the SAR. The outcome of the trip was the mediation of Saudi Arabia between Syria and the United States, which led to a decrease in tensions between Damascus and Washington.
Thus, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger initially did not intend to include Syria as a participant in the Arab-Israeli negotiations. He believed that President Assad's anti-American rhetoric would ensure that no US secretary of state would be welcome in Damascus. But it was King Faisal who convinced Kissinger of the need to include Syria as the main participant in any Arab-Israeli negotiations.
And the very next year, 1975, the new Saudi king Khaled, Faisal's successor, announced that Saudi Arabia supported Syria's position in the civil war in Lebanon. Moreover, the KSA went even further and during the 1976 Arab League (LAS) summit in Riyadh, dedicated to the events in Lebanon, "covered" Syria when its troops entered Lebanon, not allowing condemnation of this step.
The Saudi-Syrian "entente" continued, even despite the support of Riyadh and Damascus on different sides in the Iraqi-Iranian war.
The KSA took the side of Iraq, while the SAR took a pro-Iranian position - largely due to the common threat with Tehran that posed to both countries from the regime of Saddam Hussein . Nevertheless, Hafez al-Assad again visited Riyadh in 1981 and settled all differences with the Saudi leadership.
The closest strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and Syria developed during the reign of King Fahd , who became "custodian of both holy places" in 1982.
Then Saudi Arabia and Syria concluded an agreement in 1989 in Taif, which put an end to the civil war in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia guaranteed its interests through the influential magnate Rafik Hariri , who became the prime minister of Lebanon and was the de facto financier of the House of Saud, while Hafez al-Assad ensured the safety of Saudi assets in this country with the Syrian army corps deployed on Lebanese territory.
Assad also gave personal guarantees to King Fahd, backed up by the Syrian military presence in Lebanon, promising to keep the pro-Iranian Lebanese group Hezbollah under control, and successfully coped with this task.
Finally, in 1991, Assad sent an armored division to Saudi Arabia to support his Arabian ally against Saddam Hussein after Iraq occupied Kuwait. Syrian troops took part in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm. Damascus' participation in the Iraqi campaign was determined not by the support of the United States, but by close ties with the House of Saud.
HOW BASHAR AL-ASSAD UPSET THE BALANCE SET BY HIS FATHER
Bashar al-Assad, who came to power in Syria in 2000, not only failed to contain Hezbollah in Lebanon, but soon found himself under Iranian influence himself.
After the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri, who represented Saudi interests in Lebanon, the Syrian president supported Hezbollah, which Saudi Arabia accused of this crime. From the point of view of Riyadh, the provisions of the Taif agreements and the balance in Lebanon were upset in favor of Iran and Hezbollah, on the side of which Bashar al-Assad took the side.
Saudi-Syrian relations escalated further during the 2006 war in Lebanon, when Assad called them "half-humans " in response to criticism of the Hezbollah raid on Israel by the Saudi king and other Arab leaders .
Saudi Arabia withdrew its ambassador to Syria in 2008, and King Abdullah boycotted the Arab League summit in Damascus. Although the next year the king made an attempt to return Bashar al-Assad to the policies pursued by his father, and personally arrived in Damascus, Assad remained true to his alliance with Tehran.
This predetermined Saudi Arabia's support for the Syrian opposition during the civil war and the gap between the states, which can be overcome before our very eyes.
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It should be borne in mind that, unlike Turkey or Qatar, the fate of the Syrian opposition or the creation of a transitional executive body (provided for by UN Security Council Resolution 2254) is not so important for Saudi Arabia, despite declarations and statements.
At the current stage, as before the start of the civil war, Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon remains a fundamental issue for Riyadh. If the Syrian authorities do not demonstrate their readiness to pursue a more pro-Arab rather than a pro-Iranian policy, then the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia is unlikely to move far enough.
March 26, 2023
Kirill Semenov
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Posted by badanov 2023-03-27 00:00||
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File under: Govt of Saudi Arabia
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