The date is July 27, 2012, and in London the Olympic Games are about to begin. For months, the British people have been looking forward to the jamboree of patriotic enthusiasm.
But now that the day is here, the mood feels heavy with gloom. The crowds are thin, the drizzle pours down. The Union Flags hang forlornly in the dull breeze.
Even the nation's new Prime Minister, the blinking, stammering Ed Miliband, cuts a remarkably limp figure, a melancholy leader for a nation sunk in misery.
Several thousand miles away, across the cold seas of the South Atlantic, the atmosphere could hardly be more different. For in the capital of the Islas Malvinas, the archipelago formerly known as the Falkland Islands, an Argentine victory parade is underway.
Though victory in the Second Falklands War was secured only a few weeks ago, the islands' conquerors have already been busy.
At the tiny airport that serves Puerto Argentino formerly Port Stanley a gigantic mural commemorates the soldiers from the mainland who lost their lives.
Beside the old Anglican cathedral, draped with a massive blue-and-white flag, the statue of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner gazes impassively out to sea.
For the Iron Lady, as her adoring country-men call her, the war was a turning point, securing her place in South American history for all time.
But for Britain, battered by months of economic austerity, it was a tempest that swept away the Coalition government and destroyed any lingering illusions that the United Kingdom was still a serious power.
As the Argentine troops parade triumphantly down Avenida Leopoldo Galtieri, a few miserable islanders stand and watch. Many have already booked their flights back to Britain, sick of the Spanish road signs and posters of Diego Maradona.
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#3
The big issue is air cover. If they don't get more air cover to the Falklands now they'll be unable to do so after any shooting starts. In the last war they had a carrier and a large tanker that they converted to a carrier for Harriers. Now they have no carrier at all, since they retired HMS Ocean and the new carriers have yet to (and likely will never) be built.
A submarine loitering in the region would also help.
But I'd get a squadron of modern aircraft in: Typhoons, or even Tornado GR4s. They aren't really needed in Europe after all so it makes sense to deploy them. Yes, it's a logistical strain of the first order, but the Argies need a clear signal: look all you want but don't touch.
I'd also get a modern anti-air battery in, and some high quality ground forces. The latter need not be overly numerous, but rotating in a battalion of Paras or infantry, with logistics, along with a few squads of SAS or other special forces, would certainly let the Argies now that there would not be such a thing as a quick snatch of the islands.
How to pay for this? Let the oil exploration continue and put a small tax on whatever is pumped out from the sea bed in the economic zone.
Posted by: Steve White ||
12/24/2011 14:16 Comments ||
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#4
And as it turns out, my drivel is well preceded by this Wiki source that outlines the Falklands defense. They have naval and infantry assets as well as an air presence. The only thing I'd add is a few more Typhoons.
I should read more before I comment.
Posted by: Steve White ||
12/24/2011 14:26 Comments ||
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#5
They have a total of four combat aircraft present on the islands. A couple squadrons would be much better.
#6
Sure. It's a combination of the limits of their budget, the logistics and what they perceive the threat to be. They have intel that you and I certainly don't have so perhaps they know that the Argies can't do much.
Posted by: Steve White ||
12/24/2011 14:41 Comments ||
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#10
'This week Argentinas claim to the Falklands has been powerfully reinforced, declared an article in the Guardian yesterday. Apparently, the political climate in Latin American countries has changed in favour of the Argentine claim, so we should consider consigning the Falklanders to the mercies of a nation they fear and despise. This may strike you as peculiar reasoning, but perhaps things will become clearer if I tell you that the article is by Richard Gott. Thats the same Richard Gott who, while on the staff of the Guardian, received expenses from the Soviet Union red gold, as he put it in return for well, that has never been clear. I would have thought Gotts views on sovereignty were compromised, to say the least, but then this is the paper that just ran an article giving Václav Havel a good kicking for undervaluing the achievements of Communism.
#11
If Argentina was smart they'd take over the islands diplomatically. Position the conflict as a colonial issue to fool the rubes that barely pay attention to politics but still feel guilty over colonial remnants. They would then offer to allow the locals to stay if they wanted as English ex-patriots and give mineral rights for a set amount of time to the UK.
This would (a) appear totally peaceful and convince a lot of westerners to side with Argentina against the evil colonials. It would also being the de armament process in the Falklands and allow the UK to begin any mining operations.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
