#2
They're new, a hybrid from India, called Naga Jolokia (Bhut Jolokia, Ghost Chili, Ghost Pepper, Naga Morich). Properly grown, they have over 1,000,000 Scoville units, and as high as 1.6M units.
By comparison, habanero peppers average between 200,000 and 300,000 SU, and jalapenos average between 2,500 and 10,000 SU.
In other words, holy &$^@%&^#^&*! is that a hot pepper.
Veterans make up one in four homeless people in the United States, though they are only 11 percent of the general adult population, according to a report to be released Thursday.
And homelessness is not just a problem among middle-age and elderly veterans. Younger veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan are trickling into shelters and soup kitchens seeking services, treatment or help with finding a job.
The Veterans Affairs Department has identified 1,500 homeless veterans from the current wars and says 400 of them have participated in its programs specifically targeting homelessness.
The National Alliance to End Homelessness, a public education nonprofit, based the findings of its report on numbers from Veterans Affairs and the Census Bureau. 2005 data estimated that 194,254 homeless people out of 744,313 on any given night were veterans.
In comparison, the VA says that 20 years ago, the estimated number of veterans who were homeless on any given night was 250,000.
Some advocates say the early presence of veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan at shelters does not bode well for the future. It took roughly a decade for the lives of Vietnam veterans to unravel to the point that they started showing up among the homeless. Advocates worry that intense and repeated deployments leave newer veterans particularly vulnerable.
"We're going to be having a tsunami of them eventually because the mental health toll from this war is enormous," said Daniel Tooth, director of veterans affairs for Lancaster County, Pa.
While services to homeless veterans have improved in the past 20 years, advocates say more financial resources still are needed. With the spotlight on the plight of Iraq veterans, they hope more will be done to prevent homelessness and provide affordable housing to the younger veterans while there's a window of opportunity.
"When the Vietnam War ended, that was part of the problem. The war was over, it was off TV, nobody wanted to hear about it," said John Keaveney, a Vietnam veteran and a founder of New Directions in Los Angeles, which provides substance abuse help, job training and shelter to veterans.
"I think they'll be forgotten," Keaveney said of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans. "People get tired of it. It's not glitzy that these are young, honorable, patriotic Americans. They'll just be veterans, and that happens after every war."
Keaveney said it's difficult for his group to persuade some homeless Iraq veterans to stay for treatment and help because they don't relate to the older veterans. Those who stayed have had success - one is now a stock broker and another is applying to be a police officer, he said.
"They see guys that are their father's age and they don't understand, they don't know, that in a couple of years they'll be looking like them," he said.
After being discharged from the military, Jason Kelley, 23, of Tomahawk, Wis., who served in Iraq with the Wisconsin National Guard, took a bus to Los Angeles looking for better job prospects and a new life.
Kelley said he couldn't find a job because he didn't have an apartment, and he couldn't get an apartment because he didn't have a job. He stayed in a $300-a-week motel until his money ran out, then moved into a shelter run by the group U.S. VETS in Inglewood, Calif. He's since been diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder, he said.
"The only training I have is infantry training and there's not really a need for that in the civilian world," Kelley said in a phone interview. He has enrolled in college and hopes to move out of the shelter soon.
The Iraq vets seeking help with homelessness are more likely to be women, less likely to have substance abuse problems, but more likely to have mental illness - mostly related to post-traumatic stress, said Pete Dougherty, director of homeless veterans programs at the VA.
Overall, 45 percent of participants in the VA's homeless programs have a diagnosable mental illness and more than three out of four have a substance abuse problem, while 35 percent have both, Dougherty said.
Historically, a number of fighters in U.S. wars have become homeless. In the post-Civil War era, homeless veterans sang old Army songs to dramatize their need for work and became known as "tramps," which had meant to march into war, said Todd DePastino, a historian at Penn State University's Beaver campus who wrote a book on the history of homelessness.
After World War I, thousands of veterans - many of them homeless - camped in the nation's capital seeking bonus money. Their camps were destroyed by the government, creating a public relations disaster for President Herbert Hoover.
The end of the Vietnam War coincided with a time of economic restructuring, and many of the same people who fought in Vietnam were also those most affected by the loss of manufacturing jobs, DePastino said.
Their entrance to the streets was traumatic and, as they aged, their problems became more chronic, recalled Sister Mary Scullion, who has worked with the homeless for 30 years and co-founded of the group Project H.O.M.E. in Philadelphia.
"It takes more to address the needs because they are multiple needs that have been unattended," Scullion said. "Life on the street is brutal and I know many, many homeless veterans who have died from Vietnam."
The VA started targeting homelessness in 1987, 12 years after the fall of Saigon. Today, the VA has, either on its own or through partnerships, more than 15,000 residential rehabilitative, transitional and permanent beds for homeless veterans nationwide. It spends about $265 million annually on homeless-specific programs and about $1.5 billion for all health care costs for homeless veterans.
Because of these types of programs and because two years of free medical care is being offered to all Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, Dougherty said they hope many veterans from recent wars who are in need can be identified early.
"Clearly, I don't think that's going to totally solve the problem, but I also don't think we're simply going to wait for 10 years until they show up," Dougherty said. "We're out there now trying to get everybody we can to get those kinds of services today, so we avoid this kind of problem in the future."
In all of 2006, the National Alliance to End Homelessness estimates that 495,400 veterans were homeless at some point during the year.
The group recommends that 5,000 housing units be created per year for the next five years dedicated to the chronically homeless that would provide permanent housing linked to veterans' support systems. It also recommends funding an additional 20,000 housing vouchers exclusively for homeless veterans, and creating a program that helps bridge the gap between income and rent.
Following those recommendations would cost billions of dollars, but there is some movement in Congress to increase the amount of money dedicated to homeless veterans programs.
On a recent day in Philadelphia, case managers from Project H.O.M.E. and the VA picked up William Joyce, 60, a homeless Vietnam veteran in a wheelchair who said he'd been sleeping at a bus terminal.
"You're an honorable veteran. You're going to get some services," outreach worker Mark Salvatore told Joyce. "You need to be connected. You don't need to be out here on the streets."
#1
I really find it hard to believe the larger NAEH numbers. I also do not believe the VA numbers of 20 years ago (250K? give me a break). Sounds like the people who generated the old VA numbers migrated to NAEH.
I am a vet. I am a Vietnam vet. I am a disabled vet. I see lots of vets. I don't see anything like the NAEH numbers.
Shades of Stolen Valor.
Posted by: Whiskey Mike ||
11/08/2007 9:22 Comments ||
Top||
#2
I heard this on the radio and had the same reaction. It looks as legitimate as the polls the MSM uses to convince everybody the donks will win every election.
Given that they don't have terrible casualties, military defeats or torture scandals to trumpet, they are sending this up as the new meme to show how terrible the war is.
#3
I have read a number of articles over the years, done by some actual investigative reporters (I'm sure they got shunned for it) and others who state that remaining homeless takes some serious effort. The vast amount of help available from govt and private charities, especially religious ones make it very easy to find at the very least shelter you can stay in, generally without any real effort.
The articles point out the vast majority of homeless are mentally ill that do not accept help or desire to change due to their illness.
#4
"The only training I have is infantry training and there's not really a need for that in the civilian world," Kelley said in a phone interview. He has enrolled in college and hopes to move out of the shelter soon.
THE HORROR! This is as stupid as that family with three SUV's that the MSM used to highlight the plight of those without health insurance.
Remember, lots of these kids joined the army because they didn't have a job in the first place. Now the kid can go to college on a GI bill and we are supposed to cry in our beers over his plight.
#6
These numbers are probably based on many homeless self-identify as vets. I talked to two homeless "vets" when volunteering serving dinner at the local shelter...both claimed to be ex-USAF (I live near a major Air Force base). Turned out neither could identify what their AFSC had been or what units they were in. One said he had been a "bombadier" in Vietnam, the other said he had been a "mechanic", but couldn't tell me what kind (jet mech, airframe repair, hydraulic specialist, crew chief, etc.) I have no way to tell if what either of these gentlemen said was true or false. Neither showed me an ID card or DD-214, but they both were very sincere and seemed to truly believe what they said.
#7
I got really close to punching a guy who claimed to be a Vietnam Vet, who I quickly calculated would have been 16 years old in 1972. It is very hard not to maim such people.
And most real vets are too damn polite to them. Look what Kerry had to do before they finally lost patience.
But if I EVER meet one that really pisses me off, like claiming to be a "Green Beret SEAL Medal of Honor 'winner'", I known of a small biker gang, all of whom have their service decorations tattooed on their arms and chest. I'm sure they will be more than glad to discuss the matter with the fraud.
#8
I'd like to echo what Scotty said, a number of homeless panhandler types have discoverd claiming to be a veteran increases the amount of sympathy.
Also the definition of homeless used by most orgnizations is not what we think. Something like 95% of all homeless are homeless for less than a week while they get into contact with someone or get back on their feet thus the line " on any given night were veterans." These are folks that hit a patch of bad luck, not folks that are pathetic the way we think of when we think of homeless.
#9
The following is about Viet Nam, but since the same meme is being crafted under your very eyes (not to think there aren't vets in very hard conditions, psychologically or materially, of course) :
"Back, around the late 70's Teddy Kennedy had a $10 million government grant to have a building in Boston for all the homeless Vietnam veterans. Several of guys gave testimonies about how they ended up on the street after Vietnam, but I got the military records of those individuals and virtually none of them were Vietnam veterans," he said.
Burkett said other investigations have shown that very few "homeless veterans" were in the military.
Another myth he dispelled was the incarceration rate of Vietnam veterans. The prisons are not full of criminal veterans, Burkett said.
"I went to the bureau of prisons and got the statistics, the demographics. At the time there were 1 million men in prison. 55% of those in prison are black, only 10.5% Vietnam Veterans are black. 80% of the incarcerated do not have a high school degree. As I mentioned 90% of Vietnam Veterans do have a high school degree. You can't get in the military with a felony conviction and 80% of the incarcerated have a felony conviction as a youth offender. About 75% came from broken homes, but about 80% of Vietnam Veterans came from a 2-parent home," he said.
...
#11
The other thing is if you're talking Vietnam you have a draft army that is going to have a different disposition than the regular population (seeing that college deferments and such) you're gonna get higher stats than with a highly motivated voluntary military.
#12
I just watched an advertisement on CNBC for our local rescue mission. I missed the figures, but the text read one in X vets are homeless and had them standing around a trashcan fire, warming themselves as they sang the Star Spangled Banner. It was VERY offensive.
It's funny, because I had one of their money solicitation envelopes on my bill pile as I was going to send a donation for Thanksgiving. I ripped it up. Jerks. I wonder if they paid for that commercial or if the dems gave them the air time for free.
The rescue mission used to provide Christian services but they were forced to stop because they received govn't money. Nice to see that the tax money for the homeless is going for election propaganda instead. Even if the airtime was free, someone had to pay to produce it. Shameful. Sadly - the homeless will suffer from becoming political footballs for the dems. I'm sure they don't care, as long as they win.
#13
E Larson - USAF gags include looking for 100 feet of flight line or asking Ops about B1-RDs (birds),GU-11s (Gulls),or a BA-1100N with ST-Rings (ballon with strings).
Posted by: Bangkok Billy ||
11/08/2007 15:52 Comments ||
Top||
#14
According to my father, two of the favorite gags of the Missile Crews to play on the new guys was:
1. The PA Gurgle Test - Basically flush the toilet and count how many times it gurgles
2. Stuffing an old fashioned alarm clock behind an screwed on empty panel in the panel section for the silo/perimeter alarms. Always set for a nice time like 2-4 am. To even get at the thing, you had to figure out which blank panel it was behind and unscrew it.
#15
The local homeless advocates like to talk about how there are 2500 homeless people in a city of 95000. The mayor had the cops count all of the homeless in town and they came up with around 20 give or take. I guess it just depends on what your definition of "Homeless" is.
#16
FRONTPAGE MAGZ > LAMENTING THE SOVIET COLLAPSE. PProf argues that the post-USSR/COld War prob for the world is UNJUST RAPACIOUS CAPITALISM, ERGO ANSWER = PROPER RESPONSE TO COUNTER THE FORMER IS SOCIALISM. Move along boyz - clearly obviously NO FASCISTS-FOR-COMMUNISTS,
LIBERTARIANS/ANARCHISTS-FOR GOVTISM, etc. HERE!?
#17
These numbers, even without the sympathy card for Vets, are WAY over-inflated. I go to work in downtown Atlanta (the Black "Mecca") and see what I used to think was a HUGE homeless problem. I'm in a newer Fed. gov't building (one of those "social experiments", where they plopped a whole bunch of Fed. employees in the most rundown part of town, hoping to "spruce it up."), at virtually "ground zero" for homelessness in Atlanta. And, on any given day, I recognize maybe 30-40 homeless folks walking around. Only 3-4 of them do I recognize as being there day-in/day-out, and all of those definitely have mental illness issues.
I'd be willing to bet there aren't 194,254 homeless folks across this entire nation, especially if we mean truly homeless.
Posted by: BA ||
11/08/2007 21:10 Comments ||
Top||
#18
After living with Mrs. Bobby and me for five years, Bobby's brother got turned out - with six week's notice - and became a homeless person for a month. Then he got a job as a dorm monitor with a Christian college and seems quite happy now, thank you very much.
He has since thanked me for helping him on his path, by the way.
Posted by: Bobby ||
11/08/2007 22:47 Comments ||
Top||
An actual Iraqi comments on actual good news actually happening:
I know those who are wedded to the idea of a failed Iraq are calling me a deluded idiot and worse. But things are improving slowly. My relatives in Baghdad say there's no comparison; things are much better than they were six months ago. They can visit friends in different areas and walk about the neighbourhood in the evening.
Frankly, I don't understand why so many mock us for wanting a future for Iraq. Is your hatred for George Bush so great that you prefer to see millions of civilians suffer just to prove him wrong? In some instances, sad to say, it's more like "if a few million people living under tyrrany is the price of electing Democrats, it's a price we're willing to pay." In others, it's Bush hatred, or America hatred. In still others, a desire to follow the latest trend in elite opinion.
It really comes down to this: you are determined to see Iraq become a permanent hellhole because you hate Bush. And we are determined to see Iraq become a success, because we want to live.
Posted by: Mike ||
11/08/2007 12:48 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[1 views]
Top|| File under:
#1
It's too bad that they can't know that the majority of Americans do support them. It's just a small percentage who do not - but unfortunately they are a very well funded minority with a very big megaphone.
There is growing popular dissatisfaction with the poor performance of local administrations across Iraqs southern provinces and the growing pressures practiced by clerics who are trying to Islamize the society.
To make matters worse are the atrocities committed by some militias and the bitter fighting among ruling parties in which ordinary citizens pay the highest price.
I think clerics and politicians in Prime Minister Malikis United Iraq Alliance realize this dissatisfaction may lead to an awakening movement similar to the one that has taken place in Anbar province in the western part of Iraq.
Continued on Page 49
#1
I'm not sure that it is viable strategy to attempt to force a secular viewpoint in such a religious area. Democracy functions in Christian nations because Christ told adherents to "render unto Ceasar". Christianity was about the soul and was never meant to be about the government in this world, even though Church governments did form and wield great power.
I don't know - very interesting article. I think that someone somewhere needs to find a way to bring the Shia clerics on board to the benefits of a more secular govnt. Short of converting them to another religion.... it's gonna be tough.
#3
ouch. That has merit in the same ruthless sort of way that killing opposing politicians would have merit. But in the end, I suspect the backfire of such an action would burn far more of the forest than the original fire would ever accomplish. Better for the long run to bring the clerics on board. Maybe the mafia tactics of comprising photos would work well here. How do you make these people see that the Koran is not good advice for civilized living? That is the real challenge.
#1
The two young women featured in this piece (Melissa and Kelly) have not really studied islam or, if they have, then they simply don't understand what they've read. They're both more in the mold of what I think took place regularily on the college campus in the 1930's: Hey...let's become communists! It's revoluntionary and since we're the first on the block to convert, that makes us soooo hip and coooool.
Spit.
Posted by: Mark Z ||
11/08/2007 11:02 Comments ||
Top||
#2
Let's wish them luck changing the religion they've chosen as much for the sparkles on the hijab as because it puts them in revolutionary solidarity with... whomever. Their odds aren't good, but if they can attract enough Americanized Muslims to fight for their faith, Islam will have a chance of coming through this conflict its puritans have created.
#3
This reminds me of two bits of personal experience from my college years.
First, an american woman who married a Muslim and had a child. She was soon risking her life to retrieve the child which was kidnapped to the ME by her husband.
Second, a band-following Dead-Head. Defined his entire existence and I witnessed his popularity and vast network of hippie friends in the pre-concert parking lots. He did a 180 and embraced a christian cult because it filled some void in his life. Some people are just into extremes.
Posted by: Captain Lewis ||
11/08/2007 12:10 Comments ||
Top||
#6
It did not bode well that every mosque I visited practiced strict gender segregation.
Welcome to Islam, Baby!
As a feminist with a minor in women's studies, I have never found this sort of restriction necessary or beneficial.
I guess the part about "women's liberation" didn't stick too well, now did it?
During a study circle called a "halaqa," at a mosque in north Atlanta I was told music was "haram," or forbidden. As a fan of bluegrass, classic rock, reggae, hip-hop, jazz, folk, pop, opera and just about any other musical style, I found this edict impossible to swallow.
Get used to it, you've intentionally chosen the world's most intolerant creed and this ban on music is just the beginning.
I was also told that because Arabic is not my native language, I was not qualified to interpret religious text.
Notice how the person who told you this was a MAN?!?
Finally, on one of the holiest days of the Islamic calendar, Eid al-Fitr, the day celebrating the end of the monthlong fast during Ramadan, my good friend Kelly Wentworth attended the congregational prayer at one of the largest mosques in Atlanta. The sermon vilified the "West." The imam, or religious leader, told the congregation that Islam is incompatible with "Western" values, and the "West" is a corruption. My friend returned home that night incensed. After all, she and I are the West and were inspired by our Western ideas to choose Islam. In all of my studies, Islam was the one faith most compatible with so-called Western thought. It is because I live in the West that I have the freedom to practice Islam. I do not feel the need to choose between my spiritual path and Western values. Both Islam and the West are integral parts of who I am. Needless to say, I was disappointed and frustrated.
Yet, you idiotically maintain that "Islam and the West are integral parts of who I am". You are a cognitively dissonant moron and a dangerously cognitively dissonant moron at that.
#7
Hmm. I might have to visit and check it out, just out of curiosity, since its right down the road. However, I wonder how much of a "community" two Western women converting to Islam really make? If its just the three of us at their meeting, that would be awkward - not quite sure why they are in the news - I could see them on fark.com but why the AJC?
It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming; It is a SCAM. Some dastardly scientists with environmental and political motives manipulated long term scientific data to create in allusion of rapid global warming. Other scientists of the same environmental whacko type jumped into the circle to support and broaden the research to further enhance the totally slanted, bogus global warming claims. Their friends in government steered huge research grants their way to keep the movement going. Soon they claimed to be a consensus.
Environmental extremists, notable politicians among them, then teamed up with movie, media and other liberal, environmentalist journalists to create this wild scientific scenario of the civilization threatening environmental consequences from Global Warming unless we adhere to their radical agenda. Now their ridiculous manipulated science has been accepted as fact and become a cornerstone issue for CNN, CBS, NBC, the Democratic Political Party, the Governor of California, school teachers and, in many cases, well informed but very gullible environmental conscientious citizens. Only one reporter at ABC has been allowed to counter the Global Warming frenzy with one 15 minutes documentary segment.
I have read dozens of scientific papers. I have talked with numerous scientists. I have studied. I have thought about it. I know I am correct. There is no run away climate change. The impact of humans on climate is not catastrophic. Our planet is not in peril. I am incensed by the incredible media glamour, the politically correct silliness and rude dismissal of counter arguments by the high priest of Global Warming.
In time, a decade or two, the outrageous scam will be obvious. As the temperature rises, polar ice cap melting, coastal flooding and super storm pattern all fail to occur as predicted everyone will come to realize we have been duped. The sky is not falling. And, natural cycles and drifts in climate are as much if not more responsible for any climate changes underway. I strongly believe that the next twenty years are equally as likely to see a cooling trend as they are to see a warming trend.
#1
Huh? After every Ice Age - and the last one ended only 10,000 years ago - ice packs recede. There is slow warming for thousands of years and then cooling begins. Annual climatic changes are so slight and their effects so marginal that Gore-catastrophism is Pollyannish. That said, the alarmists are eating up comments by Ice Age deniers. So let's rely on science and not anti-Goreism. Science will marginalize his pack of clowns.
#2
I don't think it is necessarily so slow. Here's an article posted here a little while ago that suggests that these temperature changes can be quite abrupt.
#3
I am a bit worried that when the scam will be finally obvious, it will damage the field of science for a while; general public will think twice/thrice about funding.
Well, OTOH, it may have a positive effect of intollerance to sci con jobs afterwards, a silver lining on a cloud.
#4
ION, watched COMET HOLMES last nite from Mangilao, Guam - unlike previous nites, there appeared to be REDDISH COLORS/AURAS to what was before whitish or whitish-yellow, indic to me that Holmes is truly breaking into two. Reminded me of Napoleon and sister Josephine, Phoebus Apollo and sister Phoebus Cyntheia, etc. MADONNA and her song "JESSIE" [Jesus]. *RUMORMILLNEWS > as of 11/5/2007, Holme's coma is getting bigger and now comprises over 1/2 the size of the Moon, despite suppos "leaving" the Terran System??? IN ANOTHER FUTURE TIME > WORLD MAY YET SEE THE FLYING, INTERTWINING WHITE DRAGON + RED/BLACK DRAGON(S) OF ARTHURIAN-MERLINIAN LORE. D *** NG IT, TIME TO SMOKE ANOTHER CIGARETE LIKE PEPE LE PEU!?
#5
COMET HOLMES > Victim of a COSMIC SHOOTOUT? Ala the COLOR OF MONEY and "Vincent" as Tom Cruise - IT IN THE WAY THAT YOU USE IT....Mary Elizabeth Mastroantonio.
#7
The skeptics need to create a basic data table to refute the MMGW crowd. Each data set must have a source reference from a major scientific organization. It must also be organized to include the various measurement standards and conversion factors, such and Gigatons and Pentagrams (roughly equivalent).
The table should start with ttl CO2 in the atmosphere, about 800 Gigatons.
Then it should have amount of natural CO2 sourced annually, and amount of natural CO2 sunk annually. With a breakdown of major sources and sinks.
Then it should have amount of man made CO2 sourced annually, and amount of man made CO2 sunk annually. With a breakdown of major sources and sinks.
Then, the cumulative amount of post-industrialism man made CO2 in the atmosphere, as a percentage of the total (determined by isotopic differences between natural and man made CO2). And association with what is believed to be the increase in atmospheric concentrations in that time (now said to be about 100ppm). This needs to be more current than the oft-quoted, but old Mauna Loa measurements.
Then it should have a list of the greenhouse *factors* (to include things like cloud cover and soot, not just gases and water vapor), and the greenhouse gases percentage of influence within them. And man made all greenhouse gases percentage of that percentage.
Then it should have a list of the greenhouse gases, broken down by gas type and its individual percentage of influence among the gases, both natural and man made. And man made CO2s percentage of that.
Finally, it needs to include and quantify external factors influencing planetary warming, such as cosmic radiation and solar intensity.
Creating such a data table will aid immeasurably in refuting the MMGW crowd. And the sources will be cross examined, so need to be available online.
#9
Nah, Brer. "Speaking Truth to Power" is only when the moonbats rant off about something. If someone calls them on their bullshit, it's either ignored or used as proof that this person "sold out", "refuses to face reality", is "ignorant".....you get the idea.
#10
It is rather impressive how the hype, hysteria and politics of global warming have gotten out ahead of the science. And by impressive I mean disturbing and stupid.
#11
I am a bit worried that when the scam will be finally obvious, it will damage the field of science for a while; general public will think twice/thrice about funding.
That would be good. It would create the environment in which a learning moment can occur. The scientists could learn they are human and that when they lie to other people, other people make them pay a price when they finally discover the truth the scientists have hidden.
It's the same kind of moment the borrowers and lenders who brought us the subprime mess need to have. We spend too much time and money insulating people from the consequences of their own mistakes which only allows them to err longer and makes the final correction much more painful than would be necessary if we were less sympathetic to people suffering for their own stupidity in the first place.
#14
The scientists could learn they are human and that when they lie to other people, other people make them pay a price when they finally discover the truth the scientists have hidden.
Could we bring back burning at the stake? Or some other horrific form of execution from the middle-ages. It might make future grifters think twice.
Posted by: Hupeager Prince of the Danes1987 ||
11/08/2007 14:02 Comments ||
Top||
#15
He has done no original research in this field.
Over a half century studying the weather is decent for me. He knows more than all those "scientists" put together. Hardly a layman.
Let me tell you about this guy. I watch him every night here in San Diego. He is by far the most seasoned weatherman in the nation. Yes, he did found the weather channel but has also been a TV weatherman since 1953 when TV was new. He has seen these fads come and go. Of course this is the mother of all hoaxes. After years of watching him every night I can tell you he is just a downright sensible guy. Oh, and by the way, his forecasts are the most accurate around here and the only ones I will listen to.
List of countries and details at link
Its no secret that the dollar is on a downward spiral. Its value is dropping, and the Fed isnt doing a whole lot to change that. As a result, a number of countries are considering a shift away from the dollar to preserve their assets. These are seven of the countries currently considering a move from the dollar, and how theyll have an effect on its value and the US economy.
What does this all mean?
Countries are growing weary of losing money on the falling dollar. Many of them want to protect their financial interests, and a number of them want to end the US oversight that comes with using the dollar. Although its not clear how many of these countries will actually follow through on an abandonment of the dollar, it is clear that its status as a world currency is in trouble.
Obviously, an abandonment of the dollar is bad news for the currency. Simply put, as demand lessens, its value drops. Additionally, the revenue generated from the use of the dollar will be sorely missed if its lost. The dollars status as a cheaply-produced US export is a vital part of our economy. Losing this status could rock the financial lives of both Americans and the worldwide economy.
#1
REDDIT is almost ballistic = happy about the new dollar woes. *WATCHINGAMERICA.com [Little Green Footballs] > AL-KHALEEJ News - EVEN IF AMERICA MAKES CHANGES, GLOBAL DISASTER STILL LOOMS, or title to that effect.
#2
Frankly, perma-war strategies are effecting US foreign policy by scaring off allies. In 2002, Rummy hinted that the GWOT could become an endless "slog." Wheels spin.
In the big picture, I view the 200.000 people - personally innocent/civily culpable - who died in the Hiroshima/Nagasaki nukings, as collateral damage, unfortunate by necessary. The US dollar would explode in value if the President announced that his government would take the necessary steps to end the GWOT by Christmas. What's stopping him? Some compelling need to buy Arab oil with a decimated dollar? Some obsession with nation building on liberal-democratic blueprints, in territorial entites where liberty and democracy are anathema? Some perceived eternal values, which didn't exist until after 1945?
Voter interest in the unwinnable war in Vietnam, abated by 1975. History repeats.
#3
"the necessary steps to end the GWOT by Christmas"
Thats gotta be one of the most dumbassed things I've ever seen in print here at the burg.
GWOT stopping doesnt depend on us, it depends on THEM. We can stop any time we want, but they will keep coming. Its their ideaology, ther religion. We are the great Satan and a trheat to islam and therefore must be converted or destroyed.
We triued ignoring them even to the poitn of not strikign hard about Kobar toers, etc.
It got us 9/11. Are you so stupid to have forgotten that?
#4
Old Spook:
You aren't old enough to remember exactly HOW the US pushed the Soviets out of Iran, post WW2.
I hear you: we don't do that because we don't do that, and that is self-evident because it is unthinkable to think of it as non self-evident. And the wagon-burners put away the bow and arrows because they found our rhetoric bombs and tee pee building blueprints, so compelling.
#6
This is bad, bad, bad. Once they go off, they ain't never coming back, and it has been a huge advantage to pay the world in dollars. This, more than anything else, will bring America low.
#7
McZoid, what has your comments have to do with the price of beans? The Islamists won't stop just because we surrender. The price of oil will not decrease until the world economy collapses or the Dem's finally agree to develop ALL alternatives. And these countries that don't like US currency controls will probably crash their own currencys thru sheer greed or socialist stupidity.
#8
This is getting off the track of Rantburg. One goal of al-Qaeda was to severely damage the US economy & weaken US influence abroad by so doing. What little damage al-Qaeda has done along these lines has been dwarfed by what we have done to ourselves, by US economic & industrial policies since 1973.
The main (probably the only) way for the price of imported oil to decrease is for a sufficient number of would-be consumers to quit buying it, either going out of business or out of existence. Barring some weird miracle, the days of cheap oil are over. Developing all alternatives to oil imports will not make a significant difference in the price of oil. The best that can happen is that alternatives will mitigate the pain of import withdrawal & permit our economy to evolve towards less dependence on oil imports.
The US dollar will explode in value all right, perhaps not as badly as the Zimbabwe national currency, but it is moving along these lines.
#9
Remember the "Northern Peso", cca 1/2002 @ USD 0.62?
Little changed since then, Canadian economy did not grow into stratosphere. In my view, there is hardly anything to support the current exchange rate, as there was nohing to support it then. Ideally, the value of canuckian loonie should be at about $0.75-$0.80 US, which would reflect the real purchasing power when comparing both currencies.
But vis-a-vis Euro, the disparity is even more apparent.
Vague feeling something fishy may be going on, mayhaps, in part.
#10
Another thought... or rather prediction... within some 5 years, Euro will be shrinking so fast that the current decrease of USD value would seem like a hiccup. Some European countries will drop Euro like a hot potato and revert to their original national currencies, for te sake of self-preservation.
#11
TT8048:
I advocate the use of nuclear blackmail against the Wahabist/Khomeinist terror states. They would not only surrender; they would at long last start the liquidation of Islamofascists. But they might attain allies, if US authorities continue to predict perma war, financed by perma deficits.
Cause of deficits: perma war. Effect of deficits: lower US dollar and higher oil import costs. Solution: Quick-victory. Obstacle: adherence to Post World War 2 values
#12
McZoid, I understand what you're saying, but I consider it rather a simplistic frame. Along those lines, but the protracted was is here to stay for foreseeable future, whether we like it or not, only that specific theatres can be handled with more intestinal fortitude, that's for sure. Iraq probably won't be repeated, although I would argue to the last breath that it had to be done that way.
#14
I feel the high price of oil is more of a demand problem than a supply problem, which is an indicator that the world economy is picking up.
Oil prices will rise until they dampen worldwide economic growth and some turn to coal, nuclear, hydro, solar, etc.. Which countries will be hit hardest? We'll see. Although it has started to switch over, China is still closer to using coal-based energy technology for their own economy than the US is it seems to me, so they shouldn't have as bad a time with it as the US. If China gets out of the oil consumption market, prices should drop significantly, and the US economy will pick up again. I don't know where India is on the curve, or where it is getting its energy from.
#15
protracted was is here to stay for foreseeable future And they have always been there too. There are fewer years when civilizations are NOT in protracted wars than the other way around. It's just a part of this crazy world we live in. It is only this ridiculous 60's generation that burned out their brains and thought you could end a war by not showing up.
Gorb, you make a good point.
We have our own natural resources, so if the dollar tanks, it will hurt us, but we can just bring the jobs home again. What worries me more is Saudi money buying up our infrastructure while the dollar is cheap.
#18
I'm not convinced that the WoT per se really has anything to do with the eventual success of the US economy.
In my lifetime, I've seen similar things said about Euroland (twice now), the old Soviet Union, Japan, and China. In the end, all proved to be nothing more than scares and a means for sensationalists to get their face in print and on TV (sort of the Paul Ehrlich's of economics).
I'm not suggesting that when dollars as a commodity are worth less that there are no negative potential effects. But viewing a currency simply as a commodity disconnected from the rest of the economy is overly simplistic.
We fought, and largely funded, the Cold War from 1946 until a few years ago. Because of our commitment to fight that war, Euroland was able to divert large sums of its GDP (that it couldn't have if it had to bear the entire cost of the Cold War) to vast socialist projects and business infrastructure that even had we wanted to do so, we couldn't match at home because we were engaged in a protracted struggle to prevent the human race from becoming communist-controlled. In the process, we suffered oil shocks much greater proportionally than the one we have now, had an internal front against our nation and civilization opened up at home by leftists living here, and had to undergo a legislature and at least three presidents (LBJ, Nixon, and Carter) who bought into perpetuating the labor market structure of the early 1950's way beyond it being an economically smart or feasible thing, collectivism, hyperregulation of business, and cultural Marxism.
Yet at the end of it all, the U.S. came out OK, and Euroland became a demographically doomed sea of pessimism and collectivism and autocracy, the Soviet Union went away, Japan's economy has been much attenuated (some would say stagnant), and China is so dependent on world markets and their own weirdly valued currency that they are always two steps away from collapse.
This current (pardon the pun) devaluation of the dollar, and threats by countries and runway models and entertainers, to switch from the dollar is chicken little stuff. The US economy and the dollar may be experiencing these hiccups, but in the end, WoT or not, things will be fine.
Posted by: no mo uro ||
11/08/2007 6:45 Comments ||
Top||
#19
Once the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is lost regaining it will be difficult to impossible. There is still time to correct the slide, but it would require belt tightening on a scale that the American people may not support.
We would need for the Fed to significantly raise interest rates. Also, we would need to raise taxes while simultaneously cutting Federal spending to generate budget surpluses. The domestic economy is already slowing but strong global demand and decent strength in exports would keep a recession short, if it happens at all.
This is not an appetizing prospect but it is the natural consequence of decades of neglect which built the National Debt to titanic proportions.
#20
I don't agree with all of your mechanisms, Snakes, but I get what you mean about America not wanting to do the difficult thing or even listen to the facts about it. As an example, a while back I suggested on this site that exposure to world labor markets would mean that all but entrepreneurs and the most highly skilled specialized professionals are going to have to resign themselves to a diminishment of living standards and lifestyle until the global labor market became essentially level. For my trouble, I had two posters threaten physical harm to me and my family.
People who perform unskilled or semiskilled jobs, or are skilled but in a field where there are large numbers of others who can perform the same task, have a lot of psychological baggage and a huge sense of entitlement as far as material wealth and income stream security go, because the boom times of the immediate postwar era have been coopted (wrongly) into our national dialogue and consciousness as the "norm" for human existence when in fact it was a unique time in history and will not ever be duplicated - that period was an historical anomoly.
I think that once we get past those unrealistic expectations about lifestyle and income stream security (what some have called the "revolution of rising expectations) we will do the necessary hard things, but I suspect it will take the demise of the baby boom generation for this to be so - another twenty or so years.
Posted by: no mo uro ||
11/08/2007 8:14 Comments ||
Top||
#21
SS9460: I somewhat agree with you, but what currency would the "world" switch to? The Euro (pshaw!)? Chinese yen (which is so "manipulated" that the smart folks wouldn't touch it with a 10' pole)?
I agree with your consensus that we need to get the FEDdebt under control and pronto, but RAISING taxes is not the way to do it. Cutting spending, yes, but raising taxes? No way. Remember, we've cut taxes significantly (since 2001), and the revenues to Treasury Dept. have SKYROCKETED. We're only having massive debt because of record Fed. spending, including the WoT.
Yet, if we cease "taking the fight to them," what'll happen if we get struck again? Another strike on NYC alone would cause many "the sky is falling" chicken-littles to run from the US as far as money goes. China (and to a lesser extent, Saudi) could effect us somewhat by calling on the US debt they own. But, they shoot themselves in the foot (especially China) if they p!ss off their major market (Chinese goods to US consumers and Saudi oil to US consumers).
Posted by: BA ||
11/08/2007 8:18 Comments ||
Top||
#22
After reading the article, I'm not sure I'm so scared now. Most of these countries are already moving away from the dollar, and the quotes the author uses often resides in time 3-4 years ago. For Pete's sake, Sudan, Iran and Russia are listed as 3 of the 7....they could move off the dollar and we wouldn't even notice, especially Sudan! China and Saudi MIGHT be 2 nations to worry about, but then again, they shoot themselves in the foot by p!ssing off their markets. Venezuela bartering in oil (instead of trading in $)? The royalties/taxes off that probably amount to 1/10th of 1% of our total revenue stream to the US Treasury. The "top 2" nations she lists may be cause for concern, but the others are probably miniscule at best.
Posted by: BA ||
11/08/2007 8:27 Comments ||
Top||
#23
If the dollar falls far enough and enough confidence in it is lost the EUro will begin to look good. The EU wants to sell EUros. That's why they print a 500 EUro note (for drug dealers). We're helping them.
It's all about one thing, financial discipline. And we don't have it. This is Bush's biggest problem and it was the best thing about Clinton; the Dollar. This is why big business has left Bush and the Republicans. They have become the weak currency party.
Look at what Bush has done; tax cuts, uncontrolled deficit spending, medicare prescription program, no progress on entitlements, loose money policies. Bernanke is heading to become another G. William Miller.
Bush wouldn't be so vulnerable to the donks if he weren't helping them so much.
#24
It's all about one thing, financial discipline. And we don't have it.
Who does? The Euros? Humor.
It's the story of the bear chasing a group of people. You don't have to be faster than the bear, just one other person. The problem for everyone else is that we have the keys to the car.
Not Humor; Truth. The EUros are doing a better job of keeping their currency house in order than we. Or do you think all those people selling dollars for EUros are wrong? They're betting real money, you're just ranting. That should tell you something about how badly we are doing.
You just made the same mistake that has been discussed up thread.
Tax cuts DON'T HURT!!!! The problem is the other area SPENDING, and there I agree with you.
If there was one REALLY big mistake Bush made after 9/11 it was not using that as a lever to demand mega-cuts in Federal spending. That's what Americans should have been asked to sacrifice.
#27
I like tax cuts, too. But it really doesn't matter whether the borrowing comes about from to little income or too much outgo. Too much uncontrolled borrowing is a bad thing and evidence of deeper underlying problems. People are losing confidence in the dollar as a store of value.
#29
We are the hegemon. The same rules don't apply to us as to the bit players. That's why they take all that cash from us and hold it as reserves, because they have confidence that we are the big dog and we will back them up because we've got the power to run things. Red China does not hold $1,000,000,000,000,000 in debt from any of those other countries. And that amount is growing by hundreds of billions each year.
That confidence in the hegemon that underlies the system being shaken. That's what this is about, confidence. Everybody is overleveraged. But they are counting on the US to support the system when it starts to strain. If we don't, we won't get to be the hegemon any longer.
And don't think the Chinese won't continue to put pressure on the dollar right through to the election in 11/08. They want their lap dog back in the WH and they are willing to play a little chicken on the way. And their nerves won't give out nearly as quickly as the nerves of the bankers who have only started to write off all their sub-prime sins.
This is not about any rational analysis of facts. It is about what frightened little men do when they are scared by the bogey man in the dark of night. And that is what is happening to bankers all over the world right now. Lowering US interest rates may have steadied Wall Street's nerves for a day or two, but it has scared everyone else to the point where they'll do dumb things:
Commodore Schrepke: This is insane!
Captain Finlander: Now don't worry, Commodore. The Bedford'll never fire first. But if he fires one, I'll fire one.
Ensign Ralston: Fire One.
#30
They're betting real money, you're just ranting.
And may I point out that the banks through their corporate fronts also bet money and lost their bets big time in the subprime game. Just because people/corporations play with creative accounting at the billions level doesn't make them necessarily smarter.
#31
if you devalue the dollar (ala Argentina) say give everyone 10 cents on the dollar, then who gets the shaft, Bush and Co. could easily afford this devaluation, they would still be very Rich. The US middle class, the ones who put checks and balences into our society would be pretty much eliminated and with them those Pesky constraints to unlimited corpoRATE " PROFIT TAKING"
get ready to get screwed by the elites in the USA, but remember, you did it to yourselves.
#32
This is Bush's biggest problem and it was the best thing about Clinton; the Dollar. This is why big business has left Bush and the Republicans. They have become the weak currency party.
Funny, I remember the interest rates dropping in the 90's. I remember Ross Perot saying we needed to increase interest rates back in the Bush/Clinton/Perot election and then the interest rates falling steadily for 8 years when Clinton was in office.
For the BDS folks all evils can be solved by blaming Bush and they never stop to think maybe we need to work together as a nation rather than simply blame Bush and the Republicans. Both sides of the aisle are working against us. Clinton and the Dems won't save you and until you realize that it has become the People v/s the Princes in congress (both sides) we are just going to squabble and not come up with real solutions.
#33
For my trouble, I had two posters threaten physical harm to me and my family.
no mo uro, I vaguely remember when you wrote that. On behalf of the ladies and gentlemen of Rantburg, I apologize for the threats. That kind of thing is not acceptable.
#34
Clinton's ONLY claim to economic fame was that he happened to be in office when the U.S. was the only place mass producing computers and peripherals and software, and the rest of the world had to buy them from us. Period. Had he been in office and raised taxes and the regulatory burden the way he did without the huge sales in small computers and ancillary technology that occurred, our economy would have tanked.
Anyone who gives credit to Clinton any credit for the affluence of the 1990's simply isn't seeing the big picture. The power of the dollar would have been even stronger then (and now) if interest rates were allowed to rise to cover the true cost of borrowing money. With increasingly centralized and politicized banking, that has become less likely.
We run the risk of becoming stagnant like Japan if we don't get interest rates up into a range that represents the real cost of money.
Posted by: no mo uro ||
11/08/2007 12:48 Comments ||
Top||
#35
Clinton and Rubin ran a strong dollar policy because the bond market was read to whack them if they didn't. Bush hjas run a weak dollar policy to stimulate exports. Now it's biting him in the ass.
Both Clinton and Bush benefited primarily from being in office while the baby boomers were in their prime productivity years while there were relatively few younger inexperienced workers entering. This is a benefit that will disappear beginning on the watch of the next incumbent.
#36
This is not about any rational analysis of facts. It is about what frightened little men do when they are scared by the bogey man in the dark of night.
Nail. Head. Markets are driven by Fear or Greed! Right now Fear is in the drivers seat as a result of years of uncontrolled Greed. The chickens are indeed coming home to roost.
#37
Once the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is lost regaining it will be difficult to impossible. There is still time to correct the slide, but it would require belt tightening on a scale that the American people may not support.
The value of the dollar was tied to the price of oil after going off the gold standard, leaving us at the mercy of our good friends, the Saudis and others in the neighborhood. Terrorist disruption in supply could cripple the global economy. We need to find a new standard to peg the dollar to so we can afford to become energy independent and prosper from the fruits of our own labor.
#39
I have no problem with a lower dollar. It will do wonders for our deficit and drive production back to the USA.
Unfortunately, if there was a rush to get out of Treasuries, the result would be a spike in long term rates, inflicting further damage on the real estate market. (More likely, a slower trend would be overshadowed by the shaky structure of that market which is contributing to most of the downside momentum, resulting in defensive rate cuts by the Fed.)
#40
The deficit keeps falling because of high tax revenues. The result, as I understand it, is that fewer Treasuries have been sold -- I believe the longer term units are no longer available at all. If that's so, isn't the U.S. less exposed than it would have been previously if other countries really do dispose of some of their dollar holdings?
#41
I was referring to the current account deficit, not the federal budget deficit. But you are correct, at the time of the tax cut debate, a surplus was expected to cause problems in the financial markets:
Interestingly, Mr. Greenspan is concerned that the federal budget surplus will be destroyed too quickly, ultimately forcing the Treasury to offer premium prices to buy out foreign investors and holders of 30-year bonds who don't want to sell. The Fed also would face constraints in operating monetary policy: Normally, the Fed buys Treasury bonds to create money and sells them to soak it up. The Fed chairman further fears that the Treasury, having wiped out the national debt, would come trampling into the capital markets to invest its surpluses in private securities. Its judgments of whether to buy, say, AT&T or Microsoft, might just possibly be politically motivated.
#42
Oh, international trade? You're getting into deeper waters than I can swim in, KBK. But as far as I do understand, a lower dollar means the other countries are more likely to buy our stuff, and we're less likely to buy theirs, yes? Balance of payments and things? (Trailing daughter #2 wants to study economics, and plans to manage my finances after Mr. Wife dies. We all feel safer that way.)
The 2nd largest oil exporter on the planet (Iran) decided several months ago not to take US dollars for payment for oil. This has forced countries to sell their dollars in order to pay Iran.
This pushes the dollar lower in relation to the other currencies that Iran accepts for oil. This means that while foreign oil is more expensive in dollars, US goods become cheaper to foreign countries.
This also causes currencies like the Euro to rise which makes goods priced in Euros more expensive for non-Euro countries.
We can build a dozen new nuclear plants and get around the higher cost of oil and be left with US goods being cheaper causing a manufacturing boom here.
Iran is just doing this to piss off the US and Europe for our sanctions. It is temporary. At some point Iran will be flush with Euros and need dollars for something ... probably to pay for imported gasoline and diesel ... and so they will then need to buy dollars and things will equalize again. Right now it is a big game of chicken with the US and Iran staring at each other seeing who will blink first. Will the US give up sanctions if the dollar falls far enough or will Iran finally get sick from a diet of so many Euros ... the world waits the outcome.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
There is growing popular dissatisfaction with the poor performance of local administrations across Iraqs southern provinces and the growing pressures practiced by clerics who are trying to Islamize the society. 
