Ask any student at Kabul University if the West lost the war in Afghanistan, and you will get an emphatic no. Given an opportunity, they have grabbed it ‐ they are the first generation in 30 years to have aspirations beyond struggle, death and martyrdom. Don't be tellin' da Champ.
The university is humming with new life, interest and hope. Afghanistan's demography is weighted toward the young, and they are impatient for change. In this supposedly traditional society, male and female students mix in a relaxed way. In a media studies class, 20-year-old Massouda spoke of her hopes for the future and of how much had already changed. "Life for women is now very different," she said.
On every patch of open ground young men play soccer and cricket in enormous, sprawling games in which it is hard to tell where one sport ends and the other begins. The Afghan cricket team is a source of huge national pleasure and pride, and traditional pursuits banned by the Taliban are also back with an exuberance all their own. Or maybe Champ figures this is what happens when American ceases to interfere.
Beyond the mess, dust, mud, poverty and insecurity, this is a nation that has taken its soul back from the bandits and the Taliban, and is reveling in the experience.
Afghanistan is challenging the prevailing view in much of the West that intervention has failed and that a return to power by the Taliban is inevitable. Of course, there are major threats to deal with: mass unemployment, conflict and precarious geography. The Taliban could threaten the nation for some time to come, but they will only return to power if the West loses patience and cuts funds the Vietnam Model or if there is a colossal misjudgment by the Afghan government. Even though members of the Afghan political class sometimes appear more preoccupied with their own status than with the complex business of governing, they are unlikely to make that mistake. Preoccupied with their status? Make me think of another politician. Several, in fact.
Even Helmand is not the failure that many suppose. But the poppies and the war have been pushed to the margins of this huge province. The main populated zone remains mostly poppy-free and secure. Better roads and improved public services mean it is becoming prosperous. For the first time, there are girls in school here, and the first big civil engineering projects are under way in the complex network of canals and waterways to drain clogged channels and restore fertile farmland.
Another significant development is that Afghan soldiers are increasingly likely to come from the Pashtun south. In the early years after the Taliban were removed, the army was exclusively drawn from the north, and in the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, its soldiers were seen as foreign invaders, just as U.S. and U.K. forces were. Despite taking high casualties, the Afghan army has no problem with recruitment, and the troops are well-motivated.
There are other questions, though, about whether this force can be sustained, beyond its high casualty rate. Last year, NATO increased its funding for Afghan forces to $5.1 billion. Hard questions remain about where this money is going and whether it is being spent well. The amount is about equal to the funding of Turkey's armed forces, but Afghanistan has none of the sophisticated weaponry, or ability, of that midsize NATO country.
A country with extraordinary opportunities in agriculture, tourism and trade in crafts and carpets is marking time ‐ it is not embroiled in an all-out war, but it is not exactly at peace either. If its politicians were as good as its generals and its cricket team, things might be different.
Let us hope Mr. Loyn is correct in his assessment.
David Loyn is the BBC's Afghanistan correspondent.
Posted by: Bobby ||
03/09/2015 00:00 ||
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#1
Kabul university's "new life" can be ended rather abruptly and permanently, by methods we are all too aware of. My personal opinion is that things will go from bad to worse in Afghanistan. I do hope I'm wrong.
#2
Strategypage pointed out that, while 100,000 people have died since 2002, that is still a lot less than before the US arrived. The sad truth is that the period 2004 - 2014 is the least violent since the 70's.
Add in the fact that most of the fighting is along the Pak border, and rest of the country comes off as "peaceful."
Posted by: frozen al ||
03/09/2015 11:55 Comments ||
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#3
It's a little too easy to picture those relaxed male and female students applying for asylum when their not so relaxed Talibunny friends take over.
[DAWN] Jailbreaks are troubling enough, but truly disturbing are reports that indicate jail staff may have actually aided in the escape.
According to a report by BBC Urdu, which quotes a member of the team investigating the escape, the prisoners established contacts with the guards posted outside their cells, and in fact convinced them of the rightness of their cause, 'brainwashing' them in the words of the report. Beyond this, the bully boys' accomplices on the outside apparently established contacts with the jail staff, taking care of their 'needs'.
Unfortunately, none of this comes as a surprise. There have been many cases where both criminals and murderous Moslems have bribed or bullied jail staff into providing better facilities or even cellphones and such.
Nor is this the first time we have heard of those who murder in the name of religion in fact radicalising jail and police staff while being behind bars.
Soon after the arrest of Mumtaz Qadri, the assassin of Salmaan Taseer, a mobile phone video emerged of Qadri happily reciting naats while in police custody. Even more shocking is that the coppers in fact take turns to sit next to him while he does so, and there is little doubt that they know they are being filmed.
In fact, it seems as if they want to be filmed sitting next to this man, whom a disturbing number of people consider to be some kind of holy warrior.
It should come as no surprise, then, that at least one such person was willing to not only listen to Qadri's warped views, but to also act on them. In October last year, a prison guard who had been deputed outside Qadri's cell for three weeks went and shot Muhammad Asghar, a mentally ill 70- year-old who had been sentenced to death in a blasphemy case. Luckily, Asghar survived and subsequent investigation revealed that the guard had in fact been taking 'religious lessons' from Mumtaz Qadri. He wasn't the only one to eagerly listen to Qadri's sermons either, and the initial inquiry also revealed that Qadri had 'prepared' two other guards to go and hunt down other persons accused of blasphemy.
All this took place in an atmosphere where Qadri was treated less like a criminal who had murdered a prominent politician, and more as a star, a sought-after preacher of the faith. In an AFP story in the aftermath of Asghar's shooting, other inmates complained that Qadri was given special treatment and was exempt from the routine work that they were made to do.
As for radicalisation in prisons, it's apparently the gift that keeps on giving. The same story also quotes a convicted murderer as saying that a prison guard had tried to persuade him to murder two persons accused of blasphemy who were in the same jail as him. The argument made was that this was the only way he could atone for his sins.
It is, of course, well known that prisons around the world do serve as finishing schools for criminals, providing an opportunity for inmates to network, recruit and exchange notes. In Pakistain, the problem is compounded because of the incarceration of snuffies along with the general jail population, and one shudders to think of the kind of seeds hardcore snuffies have planted there.
Certainly, we know that their message and rhetoric is convincing, as evidenced by the seemingly unending supply of killers they possess. Certainly it ties in with our general reluctance (fear?) to question any rhetoric that is couched in religiosity, no matter how nihilist or bloodthirsty it may be.
But philosophical debates aside, all this points to a serious problem that needs to be addressed. It seems daunting no doubt, as every time a hole is plugged one finds that there are at least a dozen more that demand attention. But such is the nature of the existential war Pakistain is fighting; it is one that demands constant adaptation, constant vigilance and zero tolerance.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/09/2015 00:00 ||
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#1
Prison, then Islam. Seems to have a catchy ring to it.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Ask any student at Kabul University if the West lost the war in Afghanistan, and you will get an emphatic no. Given an opportunity, they have grabbed it ‐ they are the first generation in 30 years to have aspirations beyond struggle, death and martyrdom.
Another significant development is that Afghan soldiers are increasingly likely to come from the Pashtun south. In the early years after the Taliban were removed, the army was exclusively drawn from the north, and in the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, its soldiers were seen as foreign invaders, just as U.S. and U.K. forces were. Despite taking high casualties, the Afghan army has no problem with recruitment, and the troops are well-motivated.
