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Area: WoT Operations    WoT Background    Non-WoT    Local News    Politix   
IDF declares 'ready for war,' after rockets slam Israel, killing one
Today's Headlines
Headline Comments [Views]
Page 4: Opinion
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2 11:55 swksvolFF [19] 
5 09:57 Skidmark [29] 
5 16:59 Frank G [15] 
11 11:38 Tom [23] 
1 08:57 Skidmark [19] 
7 15:30 NoMoreBS [26] 
Page 1: WoT Operations
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Page 3: Non-WoT
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Page 5: Russia-Former Soviet Union
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Page 6: Politix
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-Land of the Free
Furious Wyoming ranchers slam Biden administration's eco plan to turn 1.3MILLION acres into protected land that will be more destructive than 'the Civil War, Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined'
[Daily Mail, where America gets its news]
  • Plans for Rock Springs Management Area would slash available grazing by thousands of acres

  • Ranchers fear they could lose farms entirely if proposals go ahead

  • Mining, timber and energy production could also be curbed
Posted by: Skidmark || 10/07/2023 09:19 || Comments || Link || [19 views] Top|| File under: Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life, & Kleptocrats

#1  I remember when Mao sent the intellectuals to the farms to work. I'm starting to think these 'federal regulators' need to be sent to Montana and Alaska to live for a year in the 19th Century before they engage in any more nonsense.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 10/07/2023 11:52 Comments || Top||

#2  "The Cheney Ranch"
Posted by: swksvolFF || 10/07/2023 11:55 Comments || Top||


-War on Police-
Two Murders‐and the Cost of Luxury Beliefs
[h/t Instapundit] Recently, two high-profile supporters of "justice reform" were murdered.

At 4 a.m. on Monday, Ryan Carson, a 32-year-old social justice and climate change activist, was walking with his girlfriend in Crown Heights, Brooklyn, when he was stabbed to death by a stranger. Only a few hours earlier in Philadelphia, activist and journalist Josh Kruger was shot and killed in his home.

And two Democratic lawmakers who voted to "redirect funding to community-based policing reforms" have been recent victims of violent crime.

...Of course, these people did not deserve harm because of their support for soft-on-crime policies. But I’ve long argued that many people who hold "luxury beliefs"—ideas and opinions that confer status on the upper class, while often inflicting costs on the lower classes—are oblivious to the consequences of their views. Support for defunding the police is a classic example.

Luxury beliefs can stem from malice, good intentions, or outright naivete.

But the individuals who hold those beliefs, the people who wield the most influence in policy and culture, are often sheltered when their preferences are implemented.

Some online commenters have said that my luxury beliefs thesis is undermined by these tragic events, because the victims were affluent and influential—and they still suffered the consequences of their beliefs.

But the fact remains that poor people are far more likely to be victims of violent crime. For every upper-middle-class person killed, 20 poor people you never hear about are assaulted and murdered. You just never hear about them. They don’t get identified by name in the media. Their stories don’t get told.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the poorest Americans are seven times more likely to be victims of robbery, seven times more likely to be victims of aggravated assault, and twenty times more likely to be victims of sexual assault than Americans who earn more than $75,000. One 2004 study found that people in areas where over 20 percent of inhabitants live in poverty are more than 100 times more likely to be murdered than people in areas where less than 10 percent of residents live in poverty.

...A study from 2014 found that strong support for a policy among the middle class has virtually no effect on whether that policy will be adopted. In contrast, strong support among Americans in the top income decile—those who earn at least $173,000 a year—doubles the probability that a policy will be adopted.

Who was most likely to champion the fashionable "defund the police" cause in 2020 and 2021?

A nationwide survey from YouGov found that Americans in the highest income category were by far the most supportive of defunding the police. Among Democratic voters, white Democrats were more likely to support reducing police funding than black or Hispanic Democrats.

...French sociologist Pierre Bourdieu argued that "distance from necessity" signals high social class. Similarly, in his book Class: A Guide Through the American Status System, Paul Fussell points out that the presence of physical danger is a marker of low social class. For instance, among occupations, a big reason why being a diesel mechanic or an electric power line installer is considered working class—while being a schoolteacher is middle class—is that the former jobs are more dangerous.

The vast majority of educated people have never been in a real fight or experienced serious physical injury. On occasion, I’ve wondered if this is why many of them believe words are "violence." They have never known serious physical pain. I recently spoke with an editor at a prestigious magazine who explained how shocked he was to learn from Tara Westover’s memoir Educated how frequently people who work in junkyards experience cuts, scrapes, bruises, and burns. Physical pain—even bodily soreness—was just not a reality in this person’s world.

I had a professor in college who liked to say that common sense is like air: the higher you go, the thinner it gets. Sadly, it will probably take more high-profile deaths and attacks for people to wake up. When a bunch of peasants are killed, the luxury belief class shrugs. But when the nobility and petty nobility are targeted, the narrative shifts. It’s only when those in positions of influence and privilege feel the consequences of their beliefs and policies that real change is seriously considered.

IMO, the only thing capable of scaring these people is Vlad Putin
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 10/07/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [23 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Reality: That which does not go away just because you stop believing in it.
Posted by: M. Murcek || 10/07/2023 7:15 Comments || Top||

#2  I'm told I should not find amusement in these "evolution in action" type deaths, but I do.
I also consider that the ones telling me that are same ones who want to tell me what to think. So I give it the same weight.
The phrase that best fits here is "pour encourager les autres". Let's see if their friends are actually capable of learning through first hand events.
Posted by: ed in texas || 10/07/2023 8:21 Comments || Top||

#3  What les autres are encourager to do: Murdered Activist’s Friends Start GoFundMe, Hustle for Donations So They Can Skip Work
Posted by: M. Murcek || 10/07/2023 8:38 Comments || Top||

#4  Ryan Carson's girlfriend refused to give a description of the murderer to police saying she didn't want to further the spread of racial stereotypes. What is wrong with these people?
Posted by: Deacon Blues || 10/07/2023 9:06 Comments || Top||

#5  What is wrong with these people?

They aren't Darwinizing themselves nearly fast enough.
Posted by: M. Murcek || 10/07/2023 9:16 Comments || Top||

#6  Philadelphia journalist Josh Kruger was shot dead by teen he was ‘trying to help’: police
The Philadelphia journalist gunned down inside his home earlier this week was an acquaintance with his alleged killer and was “trying to help him get through life,” police said on Friday.

Philadelphia police named Robert Davis, 19, as the suspect in the death of freelance reporter Josh Kruger in his Point Breeze neighborhood.

Davis allegedly shot Kruger seven times in the chest and abdomen while the journalist stood at the base of his stairs inside his home around 1:30 a.m. on Monday as the teen fled the area.

Kruger, 39, left his home in search of help before collapsing on the street where he was found and rushed to a hospital but was pronounced dead less than an hour later.

“At this time we believe that Mr. Kruger was trying to help Mr. Davis, and they were lovers acquaintances,” said Philadelphia Police Department Lieutenant Hamilton Marshmond. “He was just trying to help him just get through life.”
Posted by: Frank G || 10/07/2023 9:35 Comments || Top||

#7  I think that is exactly it. Probably getting the kid high, and surprise!

'Let me help you...with them pants.'
Posted by: swksvolFF || 10/07/2023 9:49 Comments || Top||

#8  Got a few more that "need some help":

Posted by: DooDahMan || 10/07/2023 9:55 Comments || Top||

#9  The most dangerous thing you can do is to help normies realize lefty moral posturing is something they should just ignore. When Joe Average stops worrying about how he is viewed by the left, it's game over.
Posted by: M. Murcek || 10/07/2023 10:15 Comments || Top||

#10  Time for Trump to read "The Snake" again.
Posted by: bman || 10/07/2023 10:59 Comments || Top||

#11  These people are among the very few lefties actually living near the underclass. Most of them live in nice, affluent, lily-white suburbs far from the action. And so pay no price at all for the luxury beliefs the codify into law and force on others.
Posted by: Tom || 10/07/2023 11:38 Comments || Top||


Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
How Bad is US intel on Ukraine? Intel Round Table wLarry Johnson & Ray McGovern
Posted by: badanov || 10/07/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [29 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Beliefs interfere with comprehension.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 10/07/2023 1:59 Comments || Top||

#2  Intriguing interview indeed, particularly logistics facts of the conflict stated by Johnson. McGovern's point 15:16 comment on the 2016 "Russian hacking of DNC emails."

Seth Rich to the courtesy phone please. Mr. Seth Rich.
Posted by: Besoeker || 10/07/2023 5:43 Comments || Top||

#3  Sited at interniew above:

CIA apologist David Ignatius - A hard choice lies ahead in Ukraine, but only Ukrainians can make it

I can almost see the confirming head nods and Miami cafe table fist pounding from the Bay of Pigs Veterans Association – Brigade 2506.

Like Pelosi, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may also be moving to a much smaller office. Wall? Handwriting? Hopefully Zelenskyy will leave a forwarding address for historians and the Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL) .
Posted by: Besoeker || 10/07/2023 5:54 Comments || Top||


#5  Beliefs interfere with comprehension.

Kinda like Covid numbers.
Posted by: Skidmark || 10/07/2023 9:57 Comments || Top||


China-Japan-Koreas
Is China embedding military-aged males inside the U.S. in preparation for war with the United States?
[LawEnforcementToday] Law Enforcement Today recently reported about the number of military-age Chinese males entering the United States via the porous southern border, using the so-called “Darien Gap.”

That is a favored route for illegals to travel from South America to the United States.

This is a way for Chinese nationals who would otherwise be prohibited from entering the country to join the millions of illegal aliens who have entered the US since Biden’s installation on January 20, 2021.

What does that mean? It means that thousands of young Chinese males, who fall into the demographic of those who would serve in the Chinese military, are allowed into the United States, free to scatter about the country until their asylum “court dates,” often set many months, if not years, from when they cross our border, Michael Snyder writes in Substack.

As with most illegal aliens who have entered the United States, where they went or what they are doing is unknown. Since none are here on student visas, it is a certainty they are not studying molecular biology at Harvard.

Fox News reports the number of Chinese nationals being encountered at our border far exceeds any such encounters in history. And those are the ones who are caught at the border by Customs and Border Protection, not the so-called “gotaways” who evade detection:

So far in fiscal year 2023, U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered nearly 40,000 Chinese nationals on both the southern and northern borders, far surpassing the approximately 23,500 and 27,800 encountered in fiscal years 2021 and 2022, respectively.

In July, more than 6,000 crossed the border, just two months after the COVID-19 rule that allowed for expelling illegal migrants quickly—known as Title 42—expired.

Most illegal Chinese aliens arrive in the United States having started their journey in Ecuador. From Yahoo News:

The Chinese migrants typically start their journey in Ecuador, which is visa-free for Chinese citizens, as per The Diplomat. From there, they head to Necoli, a town on Colombia’s northern coast, which then leads to the Darien Gap, a 66-mile dense jungle reportedly filled with armed guerillas, drug traffickers, and deadly biodiversity. Some who undertake the treacherous journey allegedly pay smugglers up to $35,000 for help.

Needless to say, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas and Joe Biden are on top of this potential threat to national security, correct? Not quite. In fact, they are doing nothing about it, which is frustrating many Republican lawmakers.

House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) expressed outrage over the administration’s handling of the southern border and their apparent ignorance of the Chinese threat. He also believes the Chinese Communist Party is sending these men to the United States for a specific purpose.
NEXT QUESTION:
Are the LSD's in on it?
Or, just stupid to the Military ramifications and reality of OPEN BORDERS?
Posted by: NN2N1 || 10/07/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [26 views] Top|| File under: Commies

#1  the number of military-age Chinese males entering the United States

Fleeing the draft?
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 10/07/2023 1:47 Comments || Top||

#2  Some may even be studying to become airline pilots. They are no doubt on the FBI's radar.
Posted by: Besoeker || 10/07/2023 5:17 Comments || Top||

#3  If it turns out so, the entire Pentagon will need to be destroyed and the land salted for blatant failure to secure the border. Their first and only mission is protection of the Homeland.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 10/07/2023 6:51 Comments || Top||

#4  Of course they are. They are also being positioned in case of non-war. Agents of inflence, if you will.
Consider the numbers of immigrants, that after coming through in more usual paths, have then been seen to be gathering intel for Bejing. Rising to levels of trust and influnce, and then betraying that trust. (Titan II, anyone?)
At this point I have much more regard for Vietnamese (that I may have traded ground fire with) than Chinese trying to escape "circumstances".
Posted by: ed in texas || 10/07/2023 8:32 Comments || Top||

#5  Cali lab?
Foreign plane engine parts?

Somebody's playing a long game.
Posted by: Skidmark || 10/07/2023 8:59 Comments || Top||


#7  Imagine embedding tens of thousands of actual sleeper agents and willing associates, who conduct extensive critical infrastructure targeting assessments, develop influence and subordinate networks, prepare and conduct political and economic influence operations and even develop leadership and management control of key nodes of water, fuel, communications and food systems. Now imagine a President that forces the border control and immigration system to admit them virtually un-verified or located. Now imagine it using dark money and corruption to advance self-destructive forces and policies that corrosively sap the power, culture and national unity of its professed main adversary. Think it can't happen? It already has!
Posted by: NoMoreBS || 10/07/2023 15:30 Comments || Top||


Government Corruption
Joe Biden's latest loan giveaway spits on average Americans AGAIN
[NY Post] If you’re wondering why the national debt has crossed $33 trillion and is still growing, start with the fact that President Joe Biden just loves spending other people’s money.

For example, he can’t quit student-loan giveaways.

Last week saw him approve another $9 billion in "relief" (including outright cancellation), destined for 125,000 borrowers.

That brings the total so far to $127 billion for 3.6 million borrowers.

And that eye-watering number would be higher still if the Supreme Court hadn’t tossed Biden’s initial loan-giveaway plan, which would’ve cost taxpayers at least $400 billion — though the president went right on forgiving loans afterward.

It also doesn’t take into account the vast overall cost of Biden’s income-driven repayment scheme for loans — the SAVE Plan.

(The name is a bad joke: All it will do is spend.)

That, per the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget model, will cost Americans $475 billion over the next decade.
United States

And he’s taking the money of the less affluent — i.e., people who did not go to college — for a giveaway to blue-state doctors and lawyers, favored members of his political coalition.

As patronage goes: chef’s kiss!

But it gives the lie to Biden’s endless blathering about his concern for the economic hardships of average Americans.

He’s beyond adept at squeezing them to juice up his electoral prospects.

And that’s all he’s adept at: spend, spend, spend.

That drunken-sailor spending is a key reason his policies have been complete failures on the economy, delivering nothing but massive pain in the form of high inflation — largely triggered by his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and sustained by his laughably misnamed Inflation Reduction Act.

Even now, as there are very mild signs that inflation is starting to slow, he’s still stoking the fire under it.

In utter defiance of the highest court in the land (so much for the norms he and fellow Democrats claim to treasure so deeply).

There may be another legal challenge to Biden’s loan malarkey down the line. It may even succeed.

But the president’s proven that he spends money when he can and when he can’t.

And when the basic principles of economics all suggest it’s the exact opposite of what he should do.

Biden’s doubled the federal deficit this fiscal year, to $2 trillion: the highest ever outside a recession or national emergency and 7.6% of GDP.

And the new loan handout proves there’s no end in sight, barring an electoral loss for Biden or massive GOP congressional victories in 2024.

He just. Doesn’t. Give. A. Damn.
Posted by: Frank G || 10/07/2023 09:37 || Comments || Link || [16 views] Top|| File under: Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life, & Kleptocrats


Biden Approves Continuation Of Border Wall After Getting 10% Kickback From Construction Company
[BEE] U.S. — President Biden restarted construction on Trump's border wall Thursday after his son inked out a deal to secure a 10% kickback from the construction company.

"Hunter is the smartest guy I know," said Biden. "I'd like to see Trump get a 10% rebate on anything, Jack."

A reporter was reportedly expelled from the White House Press Corps after pointing out that the rebate constituted a bribe. "Sir, it's not a rebate. They upped the price by 10% and then gave you the difference so they wouldn't lose money on the deal. Why are you openly accepting kickbacks?"

The president fell down a flight of stairs before he could answer the bold accusation.

The Biden-era sections of the border wall are allegedly made out of a weaker material than Trump-era sections and will even feature revolving doors in some areas.

Conservatives have been critical of the president's border wall additions. "Why are we wasting money on an intentionally ineffective border wall when we could be sending the money straight to Ukraine?" asked Sen Lindsey Graham. "The president gets 10% back either way."
Posted by: Besoeker || 10/07/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [15 views] Top|| File under:


#2  There is a show called 'shameless' on Netflix, the character "Frank" must have been based on Hunter!

Posted by: Seeking Cure For Ignorance || 10/07/2023 0:29 Comments || Top||


#4  "If you want a friend in Washington, get a dog."

So Joe got - not one, but a total of three, and they were all removed for biting. There's a message there!
Posted by: Bobby || 10/07/2023 15:07 Comments || Top||

#5  So Joe got - not one, but a total of three, and they were all removed for biting.

The dogs weren't the problem. The owner is
Posted by: Frank G || 10/07/2023 16:59 Comments || Top||


Rand Paul's Expose Of Anthony Fauci Reads Like A Bioweapon Spy Thriller
[Federalist] Deception presents massive evidence for two propositions: Covid was created with U.S. funding, and Fauci covered up his responsibility for creating that situation.

Most books by politicians are ghostwritten, poll-tested, reputation-whitewashing, score-settling mental baby food. Sen. Rand Paul’s book out today, Deception: The Great Covid Cover-Up, instead reads like a mash-up of the true-crime and spy thriller genres.

It’s an in-depth accounting of how one man — Anthony Fauci — may be responsible for not only creating the Covid-19 outbreak but for turning an accident into a global catastrophe. It emphasizes that all the dangerous conditions that unleashed Covid persist, and could easily lead to another, far worse pandemic any time now through incompetence, hubris, or terrorism.

Paul documents that the man sitting on "the biggest pile of infectious disease funding in the world" used that massive influence over "science (TM)" to cover up his involvement with Frankenstein science that appears to have unleashed a laboratory-worsened disease on the world. The devastating consequences have only begun to appear.

This isn’t conjecture. Paul publishes the receipts in this 423-page thriller, one assumes in an attempt to provide posterity key evidence that weak and evil men like Fauci are still working to obscure, vilify, smear, and contaminate.

THE CRIME
Deception presents reams of evidence for two propositions: Covid was created in a Wuhan lab with U.S. research funding, and Fauci was sly and powerful enough to cover up his responsibility for creating that situation. In fact, the vast majority of unprecedented pandemic repression measures the developed world took can be considered a diabolical exercise in bureaucratic butt-covering.

It wasn’t just self-protection by corrupt scientists like Fauci, but also by myriad intelligence and defense agencies. You see, U.S. (and certainly other) security agencies are funding bioweapons and related research that has already created other amped-up viruses like Covid, Paul shows. They say they’re trying to catalog recipes for souped-up viruses in order to prevent future pandemics, but, well, let’s just say the world may have experienced one of the top risks of that ethically monstrous endeavor already.

Voters learning Covid leaked from a lab that applied for U.S. national security funding for coronavirus enhancement could bring the house down on the very security agencies funding these means of worldwide pandemics and terrorist tools, Paul argues. The same is true for Fauci and U.S. scientific funding programs like those he ran.

So these very powerful institutions had more than enough incentive to brutalize the world to keep their money spigots wide open. You can thank that massive, effective cover-up effort for increasingly totalitarian impositions including the Internet Iron Curtain descending on the West.

THE COVER-UP
Paul shows the damning circumstantial and direct evidence indicating that as soon as Fauci was aware of Covid, he swung into action to hide that he’d funded its creation through NIAID grants to EcoHealth Alliance, ignoring the consequences to innocent millions across the world. One key means of this is "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2" paper, or "Proximal Origins." Fauci commissioned and pre-approved this paper (Paul, 32), which he later used as a weapon to beat out of public discourse any arguments the virus was grown in a lab he funded with U.S. taxpayer dollars.

"Proximal Origins" was published in Nature Medicine on March 17, 2023. It is the No. 3 most-linked of the nearly 400,000 research articles tracked of a similar age, says its Altmetric count. Three of its authors, Paul shows — Kristian Andersen, Edward Holmes, and Robert Garry — emailed Fauci late on Jan. 31, 2020, to say the virus looked to their professional eyes like it was human-engineered, and therefore leaked from a lab.

Andersen and Holmes also said so the next day on a conference call with international virologists (Paul, 21). Four days later, on Feb. 4, 2020, however, the "Proximal Origin" authors were showing Fauci a draft of their paper arguing the exact opposite.

"So, the very day they [Andersen and Garry] were privately 60-80 percent sure the virus came from a lab leak, they completed the first draft of a paper entitled ’Proximal Origin,’ which argued against a lab leak and became, as Jeff Carlson and Hans Mahncke put it, ’the media’s and the public health establishment’s go-to evidence of a natural origin for the virus.'" (27). Four days after emails and other evidence show him privately saying the virus looked engineered, Andersen was publicly calling lab-engineering claims "crackpot theories."

"A lab leak origin was quickly dismissed as a ’fringe theory’ by the Washington Post and a ’conspiracy theory’ by the New York Times" in February 2020 because those publications relied on these same scientists Fauci paid to protect his power and reputation from the truth, noted Michael Barone this summer. It’s yet another example of how what the same publications’ fact-checkers rate as "reliable" is indeed reliable — reliable super-spreading of government disinformation.

Fauci didn’t just use his dragon’s hoard of taxpayer gold to influence scientists and reliably gullible media outlets. He also used it to influence top U.S. intelligence, national defense, and health agencies.
Rest at link
Posted by: Beavis || 10/07/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [19 views] Top|| File under: Commies

#1  Gee, Fauci briefed the CIA just last week.
Before the cell phone communication alert test.
Before the Israeli attacks.
Posted by: Skidmark || 10/07/2023 8:57 Comments || Top||


Home Front: Politix
Hillary Clinton: MAGA ‘cult members' need ‘deprogramming'
[HILL] Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton railed against supporters of former President Trump during a new CNN interview, comparing those who still support the former president after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection to members of a cult.

“Maybe there needs to be a formal deprogramming of the cult members,” she said in a clip released late Thursday.

“And sadly, so many of those extremists, those MAGA extremists, take their marching orders from Donald Trump, who has no credibility left by any measure,” Clinton added. “He’s only in it for himself.”

She predicted Trump will likely be the 2024 GOP presidential nominee, and she believes President Biden can beat him again.

“One will wreck our democracy. One violates the law on a regular basis. One appeals to the worst in our collective psyche. The other gets things done,” she said in the interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “Why is that a hard choice?”

A Trump-affiliated super PAC denounced Clinton’s comments early Friday, saying they are akin to her wanting “re-education camps.”

“President Trump has said countless times that they are only coming after him, because he stands in their way from coming after you — and Hillary Clinton just confirmed that to be true,” Make America Great Again Inc. spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said. “Tens of millions of Americans will reject the Democrat Party’s re-education camp agenda in November 2024 when we make Donald Trump the 47th President of the United States,”
Posted by: Besoeker || 10/07/2023 09:47 || Comments || Link || [18 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Non-MAGA 'reprogramming' available by appointment only.
Posted by: Besoeker || 10/07/2023 9:51 Comments || Top||

#2  God damn - she's still bitter after all these years?
Posted by: Raj || 10/07/2023 10:38 Comments || Top||

#3  ...remember. Believe them when they say it.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 10/07/2023 12:17 Comments || Top||

#4  ^Amen
Posted by: Rex Mundi || 10/07/2023 13:19 Comments || Top||

#5  Any more questions about the need for the 2nd amendment?
Posted by: AlanC || 10/07/2023 14:51 Comments || Top||

#6  In a less politically charged era this kind of statement would inevitably raise the question of just precisely what it is that she 'needs'.
Posted by: Cesare || 10/07/2023 15:13 Comments || Top||


Israel-Palestine-Jordan
How lulled attitudes to Gaza led Israel into a terror-filled nightmare - analysis
[JPost] We were awakened by sirens in Jerusalem this morning at around 8:15 in the morning. It was unusual. It was also unbelievable that rockets would be fired at Jerusalem without warning.

In past conflicts, such 2012 when rockets first targeted the city, and in 2014 and 2021, there was a long lead-up to the attack. Today the silence was pierced and there was a profound sense of lack of security, and a sense of a major change in the kind of conflict we are facing.

The scenes of attacks by Hamas terrorists along the Gaza community is something out of nightmares. Hamas has been trying to infiltrate communities along the border in the past, and use tunnels to launch attacks, but Saturday, October 7 was a different kind of attack. The large number of points of infiltration and the fact that terrorists entered communities and paraded around, taking videos of themselves next to destroyed vehicles or next to victims of their attacks, brings an immense feeling of lack of security.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Hamas is an enemy that is well known. Israel has been fighting Hamas for decades. During the Second Intifada the group began to increase its abilities, using rocket and mortar fire to terrorize civilian communities in Gaza and on the border of Gaza. After Disengagement, Hamas began to stockpile rockets and weapons. It used these to conduct the raid in June 2006 in which IDF soldier Gilad Shalit was captured. He was held in Gaza for five years.

After 2006 Hamas continued to fire rockets at southern Israel, targeting Sderot and communities near the border. Hamas expanded the range of its rockets, striking Ashkelon for the first time in 2008. The rocket fire led Israel to launch Operation Cast Lead, and a ground incursion into Gaza. There had been several smaller operations before this major conflict, including Summer Rains and Hot Winter, but 2009 appeared to be a turning point in the size of the conflicts to come.

Hamas benefited from the Arab Spring and the chaos that unfolded in Libya and in Sinai, importing more weapons and stockpiling an arsenal of rockets. By 2012 the terror group felt confident enough to launch rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem during the operation Israel dubbed Pillar of Defense. Here, Hamas and Israel stepped back from the brink of another ground incursion. Hamas was also shifting resources at this time to build tunnels. The tunnels were for smuggling but Hamas also began to try to tunnel under the border of the Gaza Strip to strike at Israeli communities. In the next round of fighting in 2014 Israel destroyed at least 34 tunnels and struck thousands of targets in Gaza. At the time Hamas had an arsenal of some 10,000 rockets and many of them were destroyed or used in the war. Iron Dome was now increasingly a key to Israel’s defenses as the volume of rocket fire increased in each conflict. For instance, Hamas fired more rockets in just a few hours on October 7, 2023 than it did in many of the early multi-day conflicts with Israel.

A TURNING POINT: THE 2014 WAR
The 2014 war marked a kind of turning point. The tunnel threat showed how Hamas wanted to try to get under the border and threaten Israeli communities, such as the kibbutzim and moshavim along the border. In addition Hamas used sea-borne commandos to try to infiltrate a beach near Zikim. They were neutralized by Israel.

After 2014 there was a shift in Israeli strategy. Ground incursions ended and Israel used its air force increasingly to conduct precision strikes in Gaza. In general the large number of casualties of the 2009 and 2014 wars would not be seen again. In addition Israel focused efforts on Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as Hamas sometimes preferred to stay out of conflicts on the border. There were exceptions, such as Operation Guardian of the Walls, when Hamas fired rockets at Jerusalem in 2021. More representative of the era 2014 to 2023 was Operation Black Belt, which began with the targeting of PIJ commander Baha Abu al-Ata.

However, there were disputes about how best to handle Gaza. Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman resigned in November 2018 because he opposed a ceasefire in Gaza. It’s important to understand this because over the years Gaza took on secondary importance to other issues. A new smarter security fence was built and Israel attempted to prevent tensions in Gaza from spiraling into conflicts. This was not always successful, but in general Hamas threats were checked. Hamas resorted to new tactics, launching a wave of riots and protests along the fence in 2018, which it dubbed the ’Great Return March.’ However, Hamas threats appeared to fail. Nevertheless it also appeared that it could heat up the border whenever it wanted and the number of short-term operations, such as Shield and Arrow in May 2023, seemed to occur with increasingly regularity.

Gaza was on the back burner in terms of a sense of security threats because Iran-backed proxies have been increasing threats elsewhere. For instance, after 2018 when the Syrian regime returned to the Golan and defeated the Syrian rebels there, Iran-backed proxies have been active closer to the Golan. Iran has also been working with Hezbollah and Hezbollah has increased its arsenal of weapons and its power. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have also increase their threats and Iran uses them to support a network of pro-Iranian outposts across Iraq and into Syria. As such the big threat is Iran and its proxies. Israel even launched a short operation in Jenin in July. Hamas in Gaza appeared isolated, unable to even get more funds from the usual sources, such as Qatar. With Israeli normalization agreements growing in the region, Hamas seemed to present an outdated ideology living in the past.

This seems to have lulled people into a false sense of security. I spent time on the Gaza border covering wars since 2009. Prior to that I was also on the border during the Disengagement. While rocket fire increased, the success of Iron Dome also appeared to provide adequate protection.

Much of that sense of security has now been shattered. The massive attacks on October 7 led to chaos at the border and a meltdown in the sense of security. It’s unclear what comes next, and whether this attack will be seen as similar to the shock of 1973, or the sense of failure some felt in 2006 during the war in Lebanon. Will it reshape thinking about the challenge Hamas poses in Gaza? Despite numerous rounds of conflict, Hamas continues to pose a large threat through rockets and now has shown that it can coordinate deadly attacks on the ground. Hamas has shown in the past that it can kidnap and hold hostages. It did that with Shalit and also Hamas continues to hold two Israelis; Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed and it holds the bodies of IDF soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, who were killed in 2014. Hamas has enjoyed the privilege of running Gaza and threatening attacks at times of its choosing. It is unclear if that privilege will now come to an end.
Posted by: Frank G || 10/07/2023 09:27 || Comments || Link || [28 views] Top|| File under: Hamas

#1  I would not be surprised if this was intended to be another of Iran’s beloved pincers, only once again the West Bank piece was neutered ahead of time by ongoing Israeli arrests, and Hezbollah prevented from participating as well.
Posted by: trailing wife || 10/07/2023 17:06 Comments || Top||



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