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2020-03-18 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Iran warns 'Millions' of its citizens could die from coronavirus

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Posted by Fred 2020-03-18 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

#1 overnight another 100+ deaths in iran and another 1000+ new infections (official figures)

Iran is, if not the worse case situation for this disease, it is close to it. However, given the essentially 'no prevention' policy the govt had until recently, the virus has surely spread to almost the whole country and if they were going to hit 1M, they would be having 5000 deaths per day by now from the disease.

Probably the official figures are low but its hard to believe they could cover up 5000 deaths per day.

Posted by lord garth 2020-03-18 09:49|| 2020-03-18 09:49|| Front Page Top

#2 See my calculations on the other thread, LG.

Even in this worst case - and we're in the dead of winter now, when heavily-polluted Iran faces its worst air conditions and highest incidence of respiratory disease each year - even now COVID deaths in Iran will be of the same order of magnitude as annual traffic fatalities in that country.

The US equivalent to this absolute worst case would be CA. 100k deaths in 2020. Tops.

That's a very bad flu season. That is NOT a "pandemic," or anywhere close to one.

What utter madness.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-18 09:55|| 2020-03-18 09:55|| Front Page Top

#3 doing calculations based on Iran official data is a problem because the numbers are unreliable

but in Italy, the numbers of deaths is probably pretty reliable even if the numbers of infected isn't so great

the past few days seem to show a plateau in deaths

could be it is a top plateau, could be a plateau before a step increase

if you are into analysis, that country would be one to watch

Posted by lord garth 2020-03-18 10:45|| 2020-03-18 10:45|| Front Page Top

#4 In a modern society with decent sanitation there is a natural limit to how many people one can infect.

That number's probably between 2 and 3. So with reasonable social distancing in place, the curve will inevitably flatten. It will not take 9 months or a year or even 6 months. More like weeks.

This will happen soon in Italy and it will sooner or later happen in Iran and anyplace modern and with basic public health measures, so long as people stop congregating en masse.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-18 10:58|| 2020-03-18 10:58|| Front Page Top

#5 Even that cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, topped out at n infection rate of 20 percent. On a cruise ship, for Allan's sake.

Obviously there is a high degree of immunity to this among the population, and the death rate while higher than the flu is still lower than for other epidemics in history.

We are not going to see "millions of deaths" in any country, not even in Iran. That's absurd.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-18 11:16|| 2020-03-18 11:16|| Front Page Top

#6 Most likely from lead poisoning if they don't chill out and getting uppity against the Ayatollahs

Posted by Frank G 2020-03-18 11:20|| 2020-03-18 11:20|| Front Page Top

#7 another interesting case to follow is Israel

today they reported another 90 infections bringing the total infected to over 400 but with no fatalities

perhaps this says something about Israel's intensive care units

Posted by lord garth 2020-03-18 11:35|| 2020-03-18 11:35|| Front Page Top

#8 Lex, thanks for the perspective. It is BADLY needed amidst all the hysteria and panic.

Posted by Tom 2020-03-18 13:27|| 2020-03-18 13:27|| Front Page Top

#9 It is BADLY needed amidst all the hysteria and panic.

AND lack of facts, other than body counts.

Posted by Skidmark 2020-03-18 14:30|| 2020-03-18 14:30|| Front Page Top

#10 The problem, as has been pointed out, is the opportunity for the tyrant-wannabes to be tyrannical ie The New York Commie and "his shelter in place" his type will use this as an excuse to accrue much power to himself. Also see the anti-2nd A moves in Ill & CA.

Posted by AlanC 2020-03-18 16:23|| 2020-03-18 16:23|| Front Page Top

#11 Most likely from lead poisoning if they don't chill out and getting uppity against the Ayatollahs

That's what I'm reading.

Posted by swksvolFF 2020-03-18 16:47|| 2020-03-18 16:47|| Front Page Top

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