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2020-05-01 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
All Of The Coronavirus Models Were Wrong
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Posted by Clem 2020-05-01 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11133 views ]  Top

#1 This all starts with the Chinese and their lies, and the stooges they use in the press and UN (WHO). Models may have been right, but they were fed faulty data and based on faulty assumptions thanks to the Chinese disinformation, so we have the results of Garbage In, Garbage Out.

The Chinese must be made to pay.
Posted by Marilyn Tojo7566 2020-05-01 01:24||   2020-05-01 01:24|| Front Page Top

#2 Thanks, TW.

There are several issues here.
(a) Chinese lies and ripoffs.
(b) Willingness to act quickly and decisively.
(c) Civilization vs MBAs.
(d) Drawing the right conclusions.

(a) There can be no argument that China deliberately infected the rest of the world, and then attempted (largely successfully) to profit from the tragedy. Moreover, it profited by flogging defective products - which killed people.

(b) We've seen that countries like Italy & France, who started by not taking the problem seriously, had a lot more death at the beginning than Germany. They've recovered and now doing as well as anybody else.

Which brings us to the next factor.

(c) Places which tried to "minimize economic impact", like UK & Holland suffered grievously - until they gave it up. Their economies still will be more damaged than German (or Israeli). If we exclude NYC - for which there ought to be a reckoning, we see that countries that went into lockdown early had a lot less casualties - and, on the long run - a lot less damage to the economy, than countries who listened to economists. It is like war. These who concentrate on the essentials win*.

(d) Drawing the right conclusions means preparing for the future. In Israel we're building separate hospitals/hospital wings for infectious diseases. In USA they send hospital ships away - instead of sending non-CV19 patients (whom Lex constantly mentions) to them and bulldozing the temp hospitals that Army Corps of Engineers build for them. Are you people brain-dead? Can't you see further than the end of the current quarter?

*A few concluding remarks. Here we hear a lot of staff about
(1) But my business, my business!
(2) But my freedom, my freedom! The constitution!
(3) Millions of young people lose their future!

(1) Business, IMO, is like sex. Just because you're horny (wanna be rich) doesn't make you a Don Juan (successful businessman). To get any, you need some special skills (😊). We read every day about businesses that changed and adapted to lockdown. You can't change & adapt - go and be a salaryman.

(2) If a government wants to take away your liberties, it doesn't need CV19 - change your government instead of throwing childish tantrums.
Definitely, don't insult readers, with "reasoned arguments" like this article. "The models were wrong because 1/4 million people didn't die!" You want 1/4 million of your countrymen dead - no problem - just proclaim that the emergency is over.

(3) Really? How? All the educational institutions are closed - so all the students are at the same disadvantage (I'm talking to you Lex). On the contrary, these who use the time to study will have a huge advantage over these who played computer games and jerked off.
Not to mention that, a lot, of these kids shouldn't be in college in the first place - it won't improve their employment prospects any. Just put their parents in debt. These who use the time to reflect and, maybe, change their life-course will benefit.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 02:59||   2020-05-01 02:59|| Front Page Top

#3 The concept of GIGO implies that the thing taking the input can't possibly make things worse. Another computer science acronym is MUNG, or mashed until no good. To aver none of the models could possibly be bad is Panglossian.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 05:26||   2020-05-01 05:26|| Front Page Top

#4 
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 05:33||   2020-05-01 05:33|| Front Page Top

#5 Yawn. World's divided into people who take The Princess Bride as a life philosophy an everybody else.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 05:37||   2020-05-01 05:37|| Front Page Top

#6 People live their lives according to Star Wars too. More's the pity.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 05:40||   2020-05-01 05:40|| Front Page Top

#7 Please note the guy posting PB video likes to call people he disagrees with "childish." Just sayin'...
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 05:48||   2020-05-01 05:48|| Front Page Top

#8 If somebody told me I'm going to miss Herb ...
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 05:49||   2020-05-01 05:49|| Front Page Top

#9 The pyramid of hierarchical needs is standing by.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-01 05:52||   2020-05-01 05:52|| Front Page Top

#10 Who are these "MBAs" and Why Do They Hate Civilization?

In the Pyramid of Evil, do "MBAs" land above or below white supremacist Necropoliticians?
Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 06:48||   2020-05-01 06:48|| Front Page Top

#11 Abstract thought is an essential component of human intelligence. But it's not the only component.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 06:54||   2020-05-01 06:54|| Front Page Top

#12 The problem isn't that the models were wrong, they're always wrong. At best they can only provide parenthetical guidelines. The real problem is the imbecile governing class that A) takes them literally and B) goes on the find the most dire version, the better to increase their 'temporary' power.
Posted by Cesare 2020-05-01 07:18||   2020-05-01 07:18|| Front Page Top

#13 Everybody is learning something from this mess. It will come down to which people make the most of what they have learned.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 07:25||   2020-05-01 07:25|| Front Page Top

#14 Important to note that the gummint will always look to magic numbers stooges to justify their actions. That should always be a red flag.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 07:27||   2020-05-01 07:27|| Front Page Top

#15 What Cesare said.

The imbecile governing class had actual, empirical data available to them in March - data which, it turns out, almost exactly predicted the case fatality rate were now seeing in country after country. Any competent approach would have begun with and been bounded within the actual, sound, validated data set.

Instead they chose to ignore this actual data in favor of making policy based on not just hypothetical data but the most ridiculously pessimistic doomsday hypothetical.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 08:02||   2020-05-01 08:02|| Front Page Top

#16 And hear them talking about "the science"...these politicians are just sick.
Posted by Clem 2020-05-01 08:13||   2020-05-01 08:13|| Front Page Top

#17 Murcek screw the movie. It's a great line and at this time very apropo.

Social makeup can quantified mathematically. Deepdive demographics and Nielsen data which displays folks real daily living habbits..

It's not stratified stats, think more of a 3d chessboard.
Posted by Woodrow 2020-05-01 08:16||   2020-05-01 08:16|| Front Page Top

#18 /\ Their lack of knowledge isn't limited to science and medicine. Please add economics, diplomacy, finance, military affairs, education, and agriculture.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-01 08:18||   2020-05-01 08:18|| Front Page Top

#19 Expecting measured choices from a politician? Really? And you know the "experts" were asked "what's the worst case scenario?" and they whipped out their pre-printed exponential curve graph.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 08:18||   2020-05-01 08:18|| Front Page Top

#20 Nielsen data. Charming. I don't have a TV or a land line phone. So basically I don't exist. I'm good with that, actually.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 08:23||   2020-05-01 08:23|| Front Page Top

#21 It was clear very early that this thing is lethal to the elderly and poses next to no risk to non-elderly.

The relevant 'exponential' that should have guided policy is the exponential increase in risk as one goes from under-70 to the 70s, 80s and 90+ age brackets. Nursing homes and those who work with the elderly, or those who interact with elderly relatives and neighbors should have been our focus.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 08:29||   2020-05-01 08:29|| Front Page Top

#22 Demographic stats still pending. I can't imagine why.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-01 08:32||   2020-05-01 08:32|| Front Page Top

#23 Finally, one of the smarter mainstream business journalists is giving some attention to Stanford epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis.

It was Ioannidis - an expert in not just epidemiology but also debunking crap studies and bogus statistical claims - who on March 17 called bullshit on the misuse of these ridiculous models.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 08:40||   2020-05-01 08:40|| Front Page Top

#24 There is a reason people look at pr0n but have no interest in mathematical models of pr0n.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 08:43||   2020-05-01 08:43|| Front Page Top

#25 CDC also FOHM in Sweden break out by age bracket. It's been obvious from day 1 of reporting deaths that this disease overwhelmingly is one that afflicts the elderly.

Nearly every observed spike in deaths, in every geography, has been due to some kind of screwup involving one or more nursing homes.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 08:44||   2020-05-01 08:44|| Front Page Top

#26 If it's a matter of stripping out numbers, minus New York the US is down around #13 in death rate per 100k
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 08:48||   2020-05-01 08:48|| Front Page Top

#27 Are you people brain-dead? Can't you see further than the end of the current quarter?

Isn't it lovely to wake up in the morning, enjoy that first cup of coffee and see g(r)om lecturing us again and generally be an asshole? Way to go, pal.
Posted by Raj 2020-05-01 09:00||   2020-05-01 09:00|| Front Page Top

#28 But he whips out Princess Bride. You have a heart of stone to ignore that...
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 09:02||   2020-05-01 09:02|| Front Page Top

#29 Or maybe adult tastes.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 09:05||   2020-05-01 09:05|| Front Page Top

#30 The Bloomberg editorial linked in #23 is thought-provoking and well-balanced. May it receive wider circulation.
Posted by Bobby 2020-05-01 09:05||   2020-05-01 09:05|| Front Page Top

#31 ^I endeavor to give satisfaction.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 09:08||   2020-05-01 09:08|| Front Page Top

#32 McNamara's magic numbers cultism gave us Viet Nam and propelled the Pentagon into the ME forever wars. Such a deal.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 09:10||   2020-05-01 09:10|| Front Page Top

#33 I was involved with constructing and analyzing computer models for 30 years.

The one thing that is rarely mentioned is that models and their data can be tuned to return the desired results. See gerbil worming for the most egregious examples. "Scientists" and politicians will always find what they want.
Posted by AlanC 2020-05-01 09:34||   2020-05-01 09:34|| Front Page Top

#34 Ding, Ding, DING. We have a winner. G(r)im will be along to say you are childish in 3-2-1...
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 09:39||   2020-05-01 09:39|| Front Page Top

#35 Comment 33 wraps back around to comment 3. Mathematical model there somewhere. Or childish Ness. Or both...
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 09:42||   2020-05-01 09:42|| Front Page Top

#36 How bout 737 Max computer models? How many times do you imagine they were reworked until management was happy?
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 09:49||   2020-05-01 09:49|| Front Page Top

#37 If you only can remember one thing, it's this: When someone says "everything can be reduced to math," say "fuck off."
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 10:15||   2020-05-01 10:15|| Front Page Top

#38 Videos featuring Stanford epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis, interviewed last week here and again here
Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 11:37||   2020-05-01 11:37|| Front Page Top

#39 In the past everyone knew models weren't great but they could help. Then they put all bets on the Global Warming models and the models became the WORD OF GOD.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-01 12:20||   2020-05-01 12:20|| Front Page Top

#40 Math is one way we try to understand God's Creation. Goedel pointed out - mathematically - that it was not completely up to the task.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 12:26||   2020-05-01 12:26|| Front Page Top

#41 ^ Fascinating interview with Dr. John Ioannidis on why "90% of biomedical research is flawed."
Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 12:40||   2020-05-01 12:40|| Front Page Top

#42 A question for the "math is truth" crowd. When NASA says they have discovered a habitable planet hundreds of light years away, do you believe it? Do you believe in "dark matter" and / or "dark energy" because those conjectures are necessary to keep the current picture of cosmology from breaking?
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 12:47||   2020-05-01 12:47|| Front Page Top

#43  If somebody told me I'm going to miss Herb ...
Posted by g(r)omgoru

Perhaps grom is the new Herb...
Posted by Vespasian Ebboting9735 2020-05-01 13:24||   2020-05-01 13:24|| Front Page Top

#44 re: #33 and discussion.

We all know GIGO what we can't always determine is who delivered the garbage. Models can be extremely helpful when you're just looking to understand something.

It's when people try to use them as proof, or evidence that it all goes to hell.

Most bureaucratic "mistakes" are only mistakes if you know what they meant to happen. Occam's razor assumes good/moral/ethical intent.
Posted by AlanC 2020-05-01 14:17||   2020-05-01 14:17|| Front Page Top

#45 Civilization vs MBAs.

Huh?

The only thing you got right was not everyone understands business. The other thing you don't seem to understand is that your second half is pushing people like myself from the 'yah, good idea to bunker down for a bit' into the fukoff models group. More on that in a bit, because everyone deserves to know why they got a C- even without the deductions for flippy on a serious topic.

Models are guides. That's why they are called models. They are a tool for making decisions, not an end to decision making.

Since this is a new virus, it needs a new data set, so at first the trend line is going to vary quite a bit especially with outliers. The model is only as good as the variables involved and their accuracy.

The models did work in showing how quickly this thing could spread, but it needed the human element to consider holiday season so the spread will be even faster. The historically proven method of quarantine was the right call at the time.

The problem is interpreting the data. Too many were taking the daily totals as current events, when in fact deaths were at up to weeks in the past exposure, and likely much longer for those tested positive with no symptoms. It was good for a while, but all it did was tell us where it had been.

Models for predicting deaths I think receive good marks, because you plan for the worse, the rounding up is fine.

Then the policy makers started using their own models. Gaaakh. We out here in rural Kansas received failing grades because we travel too much, which the city folk did better because if they traveled at all, it was only like a mile.

Anyone see what the problem with this model is? It was used to set policy, indeed as part of the case for trying to cancel Easter.

So when Governor Lucy van Pelt comes out and says 4 more weeks according to the model. I ask, which model? An honest, current, up to day model would include statistics such as ethnicity, income level, vocation, personal diet such as vegetarian, religion, previous medical conditions, drug use, weight height body mass index, primary mode of transportation, we can get an idea of the behaviors and habits of those who don't get sick, who do and fight it, who does and requires hospital, and who it kills. Then we can trade the shovel for a scalpel, and let people back to work, or go see grandma, go to services, all those things which affect moral.

If you've read anything about sieges, you know that people can put up with quite a bit, but as soon as moral breaks, it is over.

But that won't happen. Can't just wall off Harlem, any other group without outrageous howling and civil disobedience. The policy makers will hold up the old, out of date model as justification for their Flu Chic du Jour, like closing the entire coastline of California to the law abiding folks. Or ending rent.

Or calling business owners the enemy of civilization when you, in your own words, explain in detail absolute ignorance of the private sector.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 15:42||   2020-05-01 15:42|| Front Page Top

#46 The only thing you got right was not everyone understands business

What about womanizing?😎

Then the policy makers started using their own models.

Which, except (maybe) for Trump, has nothing to do with epidemiology. I'm not saying they're right. I'm just disturbed by the fanaticism some
(previously OK cobbers) around here showed (and I'm not talking about Murcek - who's a very special case).

Look comrade (it's May 1), the model I use is really simple if the daily infection rate goes up, it's not time to go out & mix. Herd immunity, sans vaccine, is bullsh*t.
And so is the assumption that CV19 only kills old, sick people. We don't know how many variants there are. And we don't know they always go for the lungs.
The only, for sure, thing we know is that Chinese who are not even a bit sentimental - Xi wouldn't give a f*ck if half the old people in China died - keep imposing lockdowns on various of their cities. You figure it out.

calling business owners the enemy of civilization

I said "Civilization vs MBA". If you run a business, you know they're enemies of business. They destroy businesses. They're the ones who sent your industry to China. They're the ones who induce efficiency: "lets fire all the old workers because new ones cost less per". "You only use this machine for a product that's 5% of your sales - lets sell it". "move, move, move the inventories!"

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 16:21||   2020-05-01 16:21|| Front Page Top

#47 So. Live and die by magic numbers is good if you are the magician. In my special way, I get that.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 17:13||   2020-05-01 17:13|| Front Page Top

#48 There are very good MBAs who bring a lot of value to their companies. As with anything in life it's about being open minded rather than a hide bound idealogue.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 17:19||   2020-05-01 17:19|| Front Page Top

#49 And since we need movie references to be real, I go with Leo's answer to Giovanni Gasparro.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 17:30||   2020-05-01 17:30|| Front Page Top

#50 Goddamn, I love you guys. Scholars all.
So passionate and articulate, and well 'read' (if the web fount and talking spouts can be considered an equivalent knowledge transfer).

So many dancing angels, but the Turks are at the gate.
Posted by Skidmark 2020-05-01 17:36||   2020-05-01 17:36|| Front Page Top

#51 And given how the turks are doing in Libya (and in NY, MI and CA) I like our chances.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 17:40||   2020-05-01 17:40|| Front Page Top

#52 You can't argue with a parrot, Skid.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 17:43||   2020-05-01 17:43|| Front Page Top

#53 Squwak!
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 17:46||   2020-05-01 17:46|| Front Page Top

#54 Topic C, clause 1
Besides the fact that if only the Don Juans are successful, they should be treasured.

Its more like rifle training. Anyone willing to learn can be trained up to Successful Business Model. That is why there are MBAs, McDonald's University, so forth. The ones who don't make it, usually it is a personality issue - my way or the highway, large turnover due to personality issues, unable to turn over critical duties to more qualified individuals due to ego, don't have the guts to let go a poison empoloyee, and most importantly not recognizing they are not experts in everything and fail to fill that gap.

There is a little back and forth story in the trade industries. "Why do I pay you so much if you are done in only an hour?" "Because I spent years learning how to do this and do it right. But go ahead, hire someone at half the hourly, watch it take three times as long, and fail way before it is supposed to."

These non-essential business, unrightfully called, are crewed by people with a passion for arts and humanities, hair styling, wedding planning, Holy Scripture, food and entertainment, athletic coaches with a penchant turning high school kids into successful athletes. Telling them to stuff their talents and dreams, go to vo-tec and learn to code, and draw a salary is not just unrealistic it is incredibly disingenuous.

Clause 2
We may not be an olde country, but we are young enough to remember why we are here. Death to Tyrants wasn't a slogan, it was a lifestyle. The more modern Venezuelan era version is "You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out. And one of my favorites, "As soon as you stop leaving Egypt, you start going back." And the ever appropriate, "If your enemy is telling you who they are, listen."

So when the sloganeering of, "Never let a crises go to waste." is said, we listen. When "Cancel the rent." is floated, we take pause. When business activities are struck down at a word, we understand that currently labeled essential businesses can be shuttered at a whim.

The Constitution is a legally binding contract between governance and citizens. To break that contract at whim goes against any other legally bound contract, including pay by salary, or a loan, or renter habitation, would never fly. It is the secular mercantile version of Mandate of Heaven, which includes right of property, right to the freedom to exchange ideas, right to not have government agents in your pants at all times.

Clause 3
Family farm foreclosing - check
College Fund tapped - check
Insurmountable debt - check
Devaluation of the Dollar - check
Entry level jobs shuttered - check
Trained to be an athletic or stage entertainer - check

The ambitions of those young adults should be cultivated. It is also a bulwark against the Me First! trend and is the investment of our culture, and takes care and time to fruit.

*reads 46*
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 17:59||   2020-05-01 17:59|| Front Page Top

#55 Death to Tyrants wasn't a slogan, it was a lifestyle.

As Manco said, "Bravo..."
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:06||   2020-05-01 18:06|| Front Page Top

#56 #54 Don't see any relation to my post, CV19, or the price of peanuts in Perch.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 18:09||   2020-05-01 18:09|| Front Page Top

#57 It's always about you. I think most here have that figured out.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:13||   2020-05-01 18:13|| Front Page Top

#58 Are there those profiteers, yes. Those are the Big Boys. I'm talking the Little Man. Without getting into political ploys, taxes, so forth driving their business models, those are executive decisions not toil and trouble mid management MBAs, though the corporate culture may attract them.

They looked at those economic and cultural models and said, "Yeah, Miley Cyrus earrings would be great Made in China." Or the poisoned pet food. Or shit drywall and plywood. Or our latest nomenclature PPE equipment. What are those conditions, except ultimately it is the consumer who chooses that service.

This is getting outside of business practice and into business philosophy, an important distinction.

I just don't like the idea that the volunteer businesses are OK to cull because Big Box is Too Big to Fail; turning a generation of Diners, Drive-In, and Dives into McRib Delivery Drivers sucks.

And some things can't be outsourced or telescreened, like a good haircut or steak diane. I can't speak or anyone else, but I sure perform a lot better when I'm happy.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 18:22||   2020-05-01 18:22|| Front Page Top

#59 My house was built in 1961. Cinderblock. No chinee mould bearing drywall. My insurance agent actually smiled when he mentioned it.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:27||   2020-05-01 18:27|| Front Page Top

#60 But I'm a parrot living in Florida not watching children's movies. An all around loser.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:28||   2020-05-01 18:28|| Front Page Top

#61 Please note I'm discussing my circumstances, not crowing about my wonderful self compared to other Commenters here. Childish bastid that I am...
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:32||   2020-05-01 18:32|| Front Page Top

#62 SW gets it. Individuals are the marrow of the human race. Herd whatever is not the solution, the savior or the be all.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:43||   2020-05-01 18:43|| Front Page Top

#63 56
For thread's sake I'll reiterate and expand.

Unleashing x number of people who have not been infected into the wild will cause problems medically. That said, the people who have not been exposed are the one's who did follow the rules and are quite aware of the risks. Your good business operators should be understanding of their employees and their situations as those small operators spend more time with their employees than their own families. Obviously, making your customers sick is not in the Better Business Model, and it takes years to build client trust and that can be ruined at a moment's poor decision making.

Which brings me back to the topic at hand - models are helpful in decision making yet only a tool in the whole box. When releasing pressure from a dam, don't just open the gates, it has to be a bit gradual or else those downstream might be a bit surprised. On those who are downstream, be aware the gates are opening and take appropriate precautions.

Dancing on the pin indeed. Let us also imagine a global civil strife of ten years.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 18:48||   2020-05-01 18:48|| Front Page Top

#64 #56 I just don't like the idea that the volunteer businesses are OK to cull because Big Box is Too Big to Fail; turning a generation of Diners, Drive-In, and Dives into McRib Delivery Drivers sucks.

I don't understand what do you mean by "volunteer"? Small?

Big business model been taking over for a long time. CV19 has nothing to do with it. Around here, CV19 was actually good for grocery stores and green grocers - because they improvised supply chains without asking approval of the head office.

I surmise, perhaps incorrectly, that you're unhappy with your society and perceive quarantine measures as the last straw. Too bad. Because CV19 is real - it's not something Fauci & Bill Gates* invented. Just stop looking at USA and look what happens in say Europe. See that different countries did and how it works out. And remember what I told you about China - if CV19 was only killing old people, you'd never hear a peep out of China.

*If you going to accuse Bill Gates of being a evil mastermind, why not accuse him of sending subliminal message via Windows? 😊
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 18:48||   2020-05-01 18:48|| Front Page Top

#65 Because Bill Gates wrote no Windows code and has been off the board for years?
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:50||   2020-05-01 18:50|| Front Page Top

#66 But I'm a parrot, not an expert.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:51||   2020-05-01 18:51|| Front Page Top

#67 The Chinabug is very real. What the oligarchy has leveraged it into is very real too. Neither one is good for humanity, but Belshazzar's wizards won't have the last word this time either.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 18:55||   2020-05-01 18:55|| Front Page Top

#68 why not accuse him of sending subliminal message via Windows?

Who used the BSOD to train the world that complacence was acceptable and massive system failure was easily redeemable?
Posted by Skidmark 2020-05-01 18:59||   2020-05-01 18:59|| Front Page Top

#69 I'm sure every keystroke is monitored. With any luck, policy makers take a trip here.

I live in Tornado Country, Wildfire Country, following weather forecasts is my duty, even if just a volunteer firefighter (who make up some 75% of all fire fighters in the country, and are trained to a level including Haz-Mat). I watch those models be consistently wrong to the joke that weatherman is the only profession where they can be right 25% of the time and keep their job.

Shit, didn't even get today's weather right. "Oh, but the Spring Trend is warm and moist." Yeah, did that take into effect Krakatoa? "Well, no." Model is invalid then.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 19:04||   2020-05-01 19:04|| Front Page Top

#70 Um, using a new build of Win 10 every week (Windows Insider Program) Haven't had a crash screen in two years.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 19:06||   2020-05-01 19:06|| Front Page Top

#71 But I'm a conspiracy monger.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 19:07||   2020-05-01 19:07|| Front Page Top

#72 Don't know what your phone is, SW, but MyRadar is fantastic on Windows and Android.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 19:11||   2020-05-01 19:11|| Front Page Top

#73 All I know is that about 3 months ago my speaker system started broadcasting live discussion with about a 3 second delay.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 19:15||   2020-05-01 19:15|| Front Page Top

#74 Which brings me back to the topic at hand - models are helpful in decision making yet only a tool in the whole box.

Lets not go into general description of models. Lets assume that you're talking about one specific model SIR with different parameter values - and actually mean different numerical outcomes.
I'm not going to discuss why SIR model is bull (cause it's like a car without differential). But it does predict some things. It predicts that in a virgin field (look it up at the link) the number of infected increases exponentially. So, quarantine. NYC is terrible, yes - because De Blasio is a moron. Other places would be as bad if they didn't declare quarantine in time. As I said, look outside USA to get the picture.
Don't assume that it's a fake crisis. And that everybody who disagrees with you is a villain.
And don't assume that the crisis have passed - it's just starting.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 19:15||   2020-05-01 19:15|| Front Page Top

#75 And it's free. Bill Gates, Fauci and the UN don't make a dime off it. So it might be subversive too.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 19:18||   2020-05-01 19:18|| Front Page Top

#76 #68 Please don't forget to give me credit when you disseminate this theory - plagiarism (unless I do it) is a sin!
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-01 19:19||   2020-05-01 19:19|| Front Page Top

#77 It's the end of the world as we know it....
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 19:22||   2020-05-01 19:22|| Front Page Top

#78 I laughed, the campfire laughed, the computer laughed.

It is taken seriously as a storm front, especially this time of year. If people are will to risk three critical failures on a d20 to live, ok then.

Just taking a pulse.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 19:23||   2020-05-01 19:23|| Front Page Top

#79 
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 19:28||   2020-05-01 19:28|| Front Page Top

#80 Stranix says, "Oh discipline is just out the window here."
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 19:32||   2020-05-01 19:32|| Front Page Top

#81 Now, to be fair, I am not trying to disparage. What is great about Rantbug, myself excluded, is the number of experts in their field.

I love Rantburg as a forum for ideas, not a debate club.

Yes, NYC is a shit outlier.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 20:03||   2020-05-01 20:03|| Front Page Top

#82 
I understand what's going on, the manic urge to ward off approaching shackles, because the deepState will only see this as a chance to expand their scope. But the darn thing is still real. Economy or no economy, it has changed life as we know it, indefinitely.

Work-arounds shall have to be thought up, by smart guys and gals. Real economists and advisors, and not academic despots will be trusted (hopefully). Any mistakes made will be suffered by large sections of society that elected errant policy makers; also those communities that cannot live circumspectly or abide by simple rules. With some luck, (and by design if you're a bastard like me) the majority of the victim demographic should be leftists, crims and illegals. Darwin will assert himself. But we must be around to pick up the spoils.

Now, as I understand, most industrious, self-employed people, artisans and small-scale businessmen there would be Conservatives, or Republican supporting ? I think it would in their best interest to only gradually open up; while everyone works tirelessly at evolving some no-contact business and work models, because this thing will take time. Also, individuals and families will absolutely have to learn to save money, and invest what they save intelligently. This may bring some banking sense and reduce the dependence and indulgence in debt ? I say this only in the American context, of course.

I don't know nothing about economics really, and this sort of thing I've never seen. Just another opinionated buffoon here.
Posted by Dron66046 2020-05-01 20:07||   2020-05-01 20:07|| Front Page Top

#83 I'm reminded of the Monty Python sketch where "Hilter" is giving a speech and a well dressed guy elbows the man next to him and says "He's right, you know..."
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 20:09||   2020-05-01 20:09|| Front Page Top

#84 I didn't mean that to refer to comment #82 which is completely correct.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-01 20:11||   2020-05-01 20:11|| Front Page Top

#85 82
Everyone who runs a business understands the bottom line. Those who don't are operating a hobby.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-01 20:30||   2020-05-01 20:30|| Front Page Top

#86 Imagining g--- touching himself while watching Frozen...

Let It Go, m.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 21:28||   2020-05-01 21:28|| Front Page Top

#87 JESUS FUCKING CHRIST M. Murcek! Get a grip man! This is not the end of the world! So you don't like grom, or are 'very peeved atm'; he can be very annoying and pedantic to the point of chaffingly irritating, but just stop this monomaniacal crap. Please. Politely requested. BOTH were, pre in-house arrest, informative, interesting, and worth reading comment wise. Now???

So, having given MM and grom both something new to chew on, namely me, guys I don't care and I really don't give a f**k if they spend all their time chewing on me, MAYBE we can move on? Maybe they can shrug it off.
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 21:55||   2020-05-01 21:55|| Front Page Top

#88 :)
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 21:57||   2020-05-01 21:57|| Front Page Top

#89 Gentlemen, we salute yourrr strrrength, yourrr courrrage, yourrr indefatigibility!

Posted by Lex 2020-05-01 22:13||   2020-05-01 22:13|| Front Page Top

#90 Grom can be pedantic and chaffingly irritating ?

Then I probably stick in the craw like an infernal doodad !☺

Wow, that's 90 comments. Has something ever gone to 100 ? Hell, I'm sure it has.
Posted by Dron66046 2020-05-01 23:45||   2020-05-01 23:45|| Front Page Top

#91 HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:46||   2020-05-01 23:46|| Front Page Top

#92 Ah, push it
Ah, push it
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:51||   2020-05-01 23:51|| Front Page Top

#93 Oooh, baby, baby
Baby, baby
Oooh, baby, baby
Baby, baby
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:52||   2020-05-01 23:52|| Front Page Top

#94 Get up on this!
Ow! Baby!
Salt and Pepa's here!
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:53||   2020-05-01 23:53|| Front Page Top

#95 Almost there now.
Posted by Dron66046 2020-05-01 23:55||   2020-05-01 23:55|| Front Page Top

#96 Now push it
Ah, push it, push it good
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:55||   2020-05-01 23:55|| Front Page Top

#97 Ah, push it, push it real good
Ah, push it, push it good
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:55||   2020-05-01 23:55|| Front Page Top

#98 Ah, push it, p-push it real good
Hey! Ow!
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:56||   2020-05-01 23:56|| Front Page Top

#99 Push it good!
Oooh, baby, baby
Baby, baby
Oooh, baby, baby
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:57||   2020-05-01 23:57|| Front Page Top

#100 Baby, baby
Push it good
Push it real good
Ah, push it
Ah, push it
Yo, yo, yo, yo, baby-pop…
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-05-01 23:58||   2020-05-01 23:58|| Front Page Top

#101 Say, does anybody remember that Johnny cash song about the Man, '...coming round, takin' names...'

That's what keeps playing in my mind when i see the news.

'...And He decides who ♪ to free and who to blame. Everybody ♪ won't be treated all the same ' ♫
Posted by Dron66046 2020-05-01 23:58||   2020-05-01 23:58|| Front Page Top

23:58 Dron66046
23:58 Whiskey Mike
23:57 Whiskey Mike
23:56 Whiskey Mike
23:55 Whiskey Mike
23:55 Whiskey Mike
23:55 Dron66046
23:53 Whiskey Mike
23:52 Whiskey Mike
23:51 Whiskey Mike
23:46 Whiskey Mike
23:45 Dron66046
23:37 gorb
23:33 Marilyn Tojo7566
22:53 SteveS
22:23 Clem
22:21 Clem
22:13 Lex
22:11 Whiskey Mike
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22:00 Whiskey Mike
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