Article

2007-05-09 Science & Technology

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-05-09 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ] Top

#1 Comforting, very comforting. And, just what I suspected the whole damn time.

Posted by Woozle Elmeter2970 2007-05-09 00:51|| 2007-05-09 00:51|| Front Page Top

#2 Hint: We are ALWAYS on our own in times of stress. Make a plan for the folks you care about, practice your plan, stock up on necessities, don't panic.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-05-09 00:56|| 2007-05-09 00:56|| Front Page Top

#3 No, let's wait for the government to save us. After all, that's their job, isn't it?

Posted by Nagin 2007-05-09 01:49|| 2007-05-09 01:49|| Front Page Top

#4 When I heard about the outbreaks of bird flu in Asia I took the initiative to buy enough Tamiflu for my immediate family. I think of it as purchasing a relatively cheap insurance policy against the worst case scenario.

Posted by Grath the Rasher6250 2007-05-09 03:06|| 2007-05-09 03:06|| Front Page Top

#5 So long and thanks for all the ~~money~~ fish!

Posted by gorb 2007-05-09 04:11|| 2007-05-09 04:11|| Front Page Top

#6 thanks to billions of dollars set aside by the federal government for research and preparedness, experts said.

That is what this is really all about. Just like global warming is really about that 40 Billion. Any highly publicized public scare can be traced to a source looking for a very large pot of money.

Posted by Angaiger Tojo1904 2007-05-09 08:03|| 2007-05-09 08:03|| Front Page Top

#7 In Ontario doctors may now be dragooned into service in the event of a pandemic. The doctors' union - commonly known as a medical association - suggested that considering they had been drafted the government was obligated to prepare them. The province thinks about it and sends along an emergency preparedness kit to every GP in Ontario including plastic sheet smocks and other medically useless - we are thinking SARS here - but symbolically potent crap. Meanwhile, every academic I know thinks this is all government hype to keep us living in a "state of fear" when what we should really be worried about is imaginary sea change.

Posted by Excalibur 2007-05-09 09:00|| 2007-05-09 09:00|| Front Page Top

#8 All of the pandemics that the "experts" point to happened before the age of modern medicine. When a disease that used to be pandemic breaks out in the West, it gets knocked down pretty well.

The notion that we can deliver such care to the Third World is nonsense. Millions will die, but they already do. They'll just die from something new.

Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins 2007-05-09 09:16|| http://northshorejournal.org]">[http://northshorejournal.org] 2007-05-09 09:16|| Front Page Top

#9 I got news for the doc. When you wake up in the morning you're basically "on your own"...

Posted by tu3031 2007-05-09 09:19|| 2007-05-09 09:19|| Front Page Top

#10 I think Chuck is on the right track. The emergency preparedness and public notification systems are much better now than in 1918, every home (essentially) has a TV or radio. Many people died of influenza in the early part of the century because they couldn't afford a 39 cent bottle of aspirin to break the fever. There is now, for all it's shortcomings, a substantially better medical system. There are several govt. and private groups that train and plan for epidemic control. It wouldn't be a picnic, but I think we'd weather the storm better now, not worse.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2007-05-09 09:31|| 2007-05-09 09:31|| Front Page Top

#11 FWIW, senior US Army medical officers aren't taking this threat lightly.

Don't know if they fall in Excalibur's "every academic I know thinks this is all government hype to keep us living in a state of fear" category, but there's a boatload of planning going on to try to limit and deal with an pandemic if one really breaks out. I've seen it up close on my own installation.

Posted by occasional observer 2007-05-09 10:33|| 2007-05-09 10:33|| Front Page Top

#12 To start with, "This is not a drill". In optimal conditions, worldwide mortality could exceed 300M.

In the US, the biggest problems we face are first, an inability to produce vaccine fast enough. Six months after the 'actual' strain is obtained, we will be able to produce 30M injections.

Second, there has been no reported 'mild' case of the disease, quit unusual. But this means that if you catch it, you will *have* to have a ventilator or the odds are you will suffocate. The US has only 102,000 of these devices. We use 100,000 during a 'normal' flu season. This is the most aggravating factor increasing our mortality rate.

Third, Avian flu has an unusually high number of animal vectors, to include household pets.

On the plus side, already mentioned, is our superior communications system, our relative underpopulation, a good public awareness of hygiene, and a strongly renewed interest in epidemic preparedness and response.

We are also fortunate that 9-11 and Katrina has re-energized our disaster preparedness activities. Even corporations are now preparing epidemic response plans. This will help us avoid a major economic downturn. We also have significant food reserves if our livestock is decimated.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-05-09 13:57|| 2007-05-09 13:57|| Front Page Top

#13 Many people died of influenza in the early part of the century because they couldn't afford a 39 cent bottle of aspirin to break the fever.

Another factor was access to potable running water. Something that has changed radically throughout the industrialized world. During the 1918 epidemic, they found people who had died on their way out to the well to get more water. As Chuck also notes, the Third World will still take it in the shorts as always.

Has anyone here begun to feel increasingly alarmed at how many of these deadly viral strains originate in China? I mentioned this yesterday and feel that it is something that the world community needs to address. While China's size alone makes it a likely source, there is much that they do to exacerbate the situation. The Politburo's Mandarins see nothing wrong with having sixteen out of the world's twenty worst polluted cities in China. This one statistic reflects upon a host of other environmental and industrial issues that can contribute to the mutation and vectoring of deadly diseases.

Inadequate sewage treatment, contaminated feedstocks, substandard processing and storage of food, lax code enforcement, poor animal husbandry practices plus many other civil management deficiencies all contribute to the opportunity for repeated deadly viral outbreaks. SARS, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, a potentially new porcine virus that has just been revealed continue to pose major threats to our world's population and the global economy.

China's self-serving suppression of statistics and lack of timely warning about existing outbreaks only serves to increase the lethality of these epidemics. Delayed reporting of SARS statistics magnified the death toll to a needless extent as the disease spead unchecked by standard quarantine procedures. Besides increased loss of human life other untold billions of lost tourist revenue and medical costs ensued as a result.

The global community is showing little concern over China's mismanagement and cavalier attitude regarding its central role in so many modern epidemics. It's high time for international censure and boycotts to be imposed upon these poisoners. The melamine feed contamination scandal is still percolating.

Melamine that was allegedly used in wheat gluten by Chinese companies to give a higher, yet false yield of protein was found in chicken feed on some farms in the state of Indiana, the FDA reported on April 30.

Melamine-tainted pet food can cause kidney failure and has already killed probably thousands of dogs and cats and led to many recalls by Menu Foods, Inc., a Canadian firm and other pet food companies since March 16 that may have caused a loss of tens of millions in revenue for the pet food companies, new media reported.
[emphasis added]

Our pets die so that some corrupt Chinese producer can falsely elevate apparent protein yields. Who will pay for those "tens of millions' of dollars in lost revenue, our insurance companies? If so, guess who really pays in the end? The consumer, yes, you and me. Dead pets and higher insurance bills. This is but one small example of China stealing wealth from its foreign customers.

New word has arrived of yet another tainted feed scandal:

A second industrial chemical that American regulators have identified as a pet food contaminant may have been intentionally added to animal feed by producers seeking larger profits, according to interviews Tuesday with chemical industry officials.

Three chemical makers said Chinese animal feed producers often came to purchase cyanuric acid to blend into their feed because it was cheaper and helped increase protein content. In the United States, cyanuric acid is often used as a chemical stabilizer in swimming pools, though it is not thought to be highly toxic on its own.

None of this addresses the financial losses of poultry producers who were forced to stall delivery of some twenty million birds while testing for melamine contamination went forward. It has been decided that it is safe for the public to consume these low levels of melamine. However, research has shown that it may be the combination of melamine with cyanuric acid that causes crystal growth which blocks the kidneys' microtubules. This was a possible explanation of why more cats than dogs perished from the contaminated pet food.

One final question is this: Why in HELL are we obliged to consume any of this chemical poison at all? Why does China keep getting let off of the hook for these enormous damages even though it is their lax inspections and incredibly corrupt code enforcement that frequently is responsible for these episodes? There needs to be import penalties placed upon China to recoup the financial losses being endured by our domestic producers. It is time for China to pay the piper.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-05-09 14:23|| 2007-05-09 14:23|| Front Page Top

#14 Moose, as it involves H5N1, the usual methods of producing a vaccine are useless. Flu vaccines are produced in live eggs. H5N1 kills the egg, so other methods are having to be explored. The University of Rochester just got approval for its vaccine for H5N1, effective 40% of the time.

It is not known if there is a "mild" form of the disease. All of the cases have been in countries where people do not have the money for medical care until they become critical. People with "mild" cases just got over it without seeing a doctor. There are so few cases that making any sort of predictions about an epidemic, its severity or its prevention is pure speculation.

Avain flu has been found in cats and other carnivores who are known to have eaten sick birds. There are no cases known of H5N1 having been passed from cat to cat or ferret to ferret.

Just over 1/3 of the way through 2007 and there have been only 28 cases. We're on track to have a yearly number similar to the last two years 100 =/- .

Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins 2007-05-09 15:13|| http://northshorejournal.org]">[http://northshorejournal.org] 2007-05-09 15:13|| Front Page Top

#15 ...there's a boatload of planning going on to try to limit and deal with an pandemic if one really breaks out. I've seen it up close on my own installation.
One thing military medical personnel have to accept as a given is that our enemies may use biological weapons against us, including pandemic viral infections. Of COURSE they plan to respond to it - they'd be fools not to. It's hard to defend this nation if half or more of our troops are hospitalized.

One of the things I keep thinking about with so many of these problems originating in China is that China is trying to develop just such a viral agent, and their decontamination procedures are as faulty as their sanitation. If I were a Russian, I'd be ten times as worried, having these folks on my doorstep.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2007-05-09 15:51|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2007-05-09 15:51|| Front Page Top

#16 Chuck Simmins: As to mild cases, in several outbreak areas, virtually every person has been tested--they either had the severe disease or none at all. With lots of opportunity for a mild case, none has been found.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-05-09 16:32|| 2007-05-09 16:32|| Front Page Top

#17 One of the things I keep thinking about with so many of these problems originating in China is that China is trying to develop just such a viral agent, and their decontamination procedures are as faulty as their sanitation.

Damn good question, Old Patriot. I'm amazed that I didn't consider that myself.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-05-09 17:57|| 2007-05-09 17:57|| Front Page Top

#18 China is where a lot of pigs, fowl and people live close together, allowing the influenza virus to mutate and jump species.

Posted by ed 2007-05-09 18:23|| 2007-05-09 18:23|| Front Page Top

#19 If I had to suspect China of biowar, I'm not sure I'd think H5N1. It could be. Remember that the Soviets had several accidents, including one that rendered a fair sized island uninhabitable.

Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins 2007-05-09 19:24|| http://northshorejournal.org]">[http://northshorejournal.org] 2007-05-09 19:24|| Front Page Top

#20 China is where a lot of pigs, fowl and people live close together, allowing the influenza virus to mutate and jump species.

Which is why I have always made sure to cite, first and foremost, China's being such an ideal incubator. China's government also happens to be the sort of thugs who wouldn't think twice about decimating an entire district if it suited their whims. Peking's incompetence and corruption allowed the medically caused AIDS crisis in Henan take root for the better part of a decade while they played the denial card. Chinese life is cheap, it's their military that's going to prove really expensive at some point, to all of us.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-05-09 19:54|| 2007-05-09 19:54|| Front Page Top

#21 OP, I agree with you on the biowar threat and planning. Where I am, the planning refers to 'pandemic influenza' but is certainly applicable to other rapidly spreading, high mortality/morbidity illnesses.

The biggest Soviet bio-accidents were with anthrax and tularemia IIRC. Check out BioHazard, written by the Ken Alibek who headed the Soviet bioweapons labs until he decided the USSR and the lab was going in the wrong direction.

The 1918 pandemic started in military camps, by the way.

Posted by occasional observer 2007-05-09 20:06|| 2007-05-09 20:06|| Front Page Top

23:46 Zenster
23:43 Zenster
23:42 RD
23:28 Swamp Blondie
23:23 Swamp Blondie
23:13 Swamp Blondie
23:02 Zhang Fei
23:01 Jan
22:45 Eric Jablow
22:36 Ptah
22:29 Abu do you love
22:24 Barbara Skolaut
22:18 Jonathan
22:10 Jan
22:07 Frank G
22:06 Baba Tutu
21:58 Jan
21:53 Zenster
21:51 xbalanke
21:36 Pappy
21:20 Jan
21:14 Rob Crawford
21:11 Jan
20:40 Thavirong Snomort7998