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2020-05-22 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
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Posted by Clem 2020-05-22 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11127 views ]  Top

#1 So the author does not place most of the blame on wanker Ferguson. Sure, in the end, the politicians must decide. But with such an absurdly wretched track record (evidently blindly followed by the politicians), he is an absolute disgrace to science and his professional field.
Posted by Clem 2020-05-22 00:51||   2020-05-22 00:51|| Front Page Top

#2 Thank you, Clem.
Couldn'ta said it better meself
Posted by Lex 2020-05-22 00:52||   2020-05-22 00:52|| Front Page Top

#3 All ideologues, regardless of what ideology they preach, are shitheads.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-22 01:50||   2020-05-22 01:50|| Front Page Top

#4  one of the biggest medical and economic blunders of all time.

Definitely a Clusterf**k for the Ages. But I'd argue that freaking out *was* the correct first move. This was a novel virus, meaning no one had been exposed, it was likely to burn thru the population like wildfire, and we didn't know the fatality rate. Back of the envelope says 300,000 Americans * 1% fatality = 3 million people dead. Not a good outcome. Let's prepare for the worst. And we did.

But that's when things started to go off the rails. Remember our old pal Boyd and the OODA Loop? Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. It's a technique for making decisions in a rapidly changing environment with limited information. The critical part is The Loop - you do it over and over, each time taking into account the new information you have about your environment. And that is where we screwed the pooch.

It became obvious almost at once that our model was wildly wrong. At that point, we should have looked at our plans in light of our new knowledge and revised them. But we didn't. It was press on regardless, and here we are, stuck with our original response.

As the epidemic has progressed, in addition to the model being wrong, we've seen the virus is not evenly distributed. Here in Michigan, the Detroit Metro area is a viral hotbed with something like 5000 deaths, but vast swatches of the state have zero or one. Not surprising really. Viruses don't spread by geography, they spread by networks of people. Does it make sense to have the same restrictions throughout the state? Maybe it's time for another pass thru The Loop.

In addition to the static response, you can add mixed messaging and stupid, arbitrary rules. Masks are useless vs you must wear a mask. Big box stores are open but they can't sell garden seeds, paint or flooring. No motor boating but sailing is ok. Top it off with a "You're not the boss of me!" pissing match between the governors and their subjects citizens and you have a Guinness class clusterf*ck. It's quite impressive really, but not in a good way.
Posted by SteveS 2020-05-22 03:12||   2020-05-22 03:12|| Front Page Top

#5 You forgot one thing SteveS: it's not over, it's just starting.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-22 03:17||   2020-05-22 03:17|| Front Page Top

#6 @SteveS yes exactly, we reacted. THEN realised we were totally over-reacting and states kept it going to "save face"/ ego ride for bureaucrats.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-05-22 03:20||   2020-05-22 03:20|| Front Page Top

#7 ^Fiddlesticks BP.
(a) The first response in both UK and USA was to ignore it: because Chinese are not like us (doncha know?), they're unhygienic*. And there is "herd immunity"**. But then the stats from Italy started rolling in.
(b) To the extent that we have some (and I emphasize some) degree of safety now*** - it's because the "panic" induced a lot of technological research - so we are able to treat the infected effectively.

*The morons who penned all these articles about "dirty Chinese" don't realize that unhygienic means having better developed immune systems.

**So far, there is no evidence that herd immunity is achievable without vaccination.

***If you look at stats from South America, Russia, Middle East, and what data is available from China. Or, for that matter, statistics from USA - it's just starting.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-22 04:32||   2020-05-22 04:32|| Front Page Top

#8 I took the opportunity to re-read Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness Of Crowds during the corona-vacation.

It should be required reading in every high school.
Posted by Bob Grorong1136 2020-05-22 07:35||   2020-05-22 07:35|| Front Page Top

#9 The problem is and will continue to be GIGO. No one had hard or clean data. Both China and Italy played the same game that our own health care 'professionals' did in labeling anything that remotely 'looked' like Covid as Covid without verifying the actual cause. That meant that the 'confidence' level of the models was low but was never sold as such but rather as absolutes. Never meet a apparatchik or politician that didn't want more power or money. That coupling with a 'chicken little' media that needs to sell air time or print columns meant we got what we got. In short, we got scammed by people and organizations out for their own interests and games.
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-05-22 07:38||   2020-05-22 07:38|| Front Page Top

#10 I think that you have to include TDS as a comorbidity.

The media and bureaucrats/ "scientists" thinking was warped by that factor as well.
Posted by AlanC 2020-05-22 07:56||   2020-05-22 07:56|| Front Page Top

#11 Thank you, Steve. I've been trying to figure out how to layout pretty much what you describe without touching off flame wars between the "lock it down or die" and the "let my people go" factions.
Posted by Mercutio 2020-05-22 08:26||   2020-05-22 08:26|| Front Page Top

#12  because Chinese are not like us

I was in the unhygienic crowd. But a large piece of that, for me, was those early security videos of vicious idiots licking elevator buttons for the purpose of infecting their neighbours.
Posted by trailing wife 2020-05-22 09:12||   2020-05-22 09:12|| Front Page Top

#13 ^Look. I'm not saying lockdown hasn't run it's course. But, it's not over.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-22 09:16||   2020-05-22 09:16|| Front Page Top

#14 Zero correlation between degree/duration of lockdowns and fatalities. ZERO.

The disease is a risk to the elderly primarily. There was and is no need for extreme lockdowns affecting the non-elderly.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-22 09:31||   2020-05-22 09:31|| Front Page Top

#15 Not over, but looking at Italy's numbers, I see us following a similar tread.
Posted by bbrewer126 2020-05-22 09:34||   2020-05-22 09:34|| Front Page Top

#16 Zero correlation between degree/duration of lockdowns and fatalities. ZERO.

Zero correlation between Socialism & Poverty.

Zero correlation between Islam & Terrorism.

Zero correlation between narrative & reality.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-22 09:41||   2020-05-22 09:41|| Front Page Top

#17 #15 It only takes one asymptomatic carrier to restart. Wait until people from NY & NJ start traveling around USA. Also, look at the CV19 stats in Mexico - you thing coyotes give their clients CV19 test?
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-22 09:46||   2020-05-22 09:46|| Front Page Top

#18 That lock down was to give us ample time to prepare,not become the new norm. We're more prepared to handle this shit,than two months ago. We'll be fine
Posted by bbrewer126 2020-05-22 09:56||   2020-05-22 09:56|| Front Page Top

#19 Another lockdown ain't gonna happen.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-22 10:09||   2020-05-22 10:09|| Front Page Top

#20 #18 Never said you wouldn't.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-22 10:10||   2020-05-22 10:10|| Front Page Top

#21 Thanks, Steve.

I'm still amazed at the number of people who treat what is known NOW as if it were known ALWAYS and the number who refuse to reassess decisions based on new knowledge.

Don't get me started on the press who ask things like "you said X four months ago, now you say Y -- will you admit you were lying?"
Posted by Rob Crawford 2020-05-22 11:34||   2020-05-22 11:34|| Front Page Top

#22 Although I am tempermentally inclined to share grom's view -- at least in the sense that I'm not going bar-hopping this weekend-- #4 SteveS is an awesome comment. I would add that a lot of the "new information we have about our environment" is political information as opposed to anything directly related to the virus. And I wonder how this would have all played out if we were not in an election year.
Posted by Matt 2020-05-22 12:13||   2020-05-22 12:13|| Front Page Top

#23 Look at the state of Washington, ground zero in this country. Today only 15 new cases and one death. If there was going to be this big huge 2nd wave,wouldn't it be logical it would happen there first? This virus does not lay dormant like locust. Sure the elderly need to stay extra cautious, but time to stop listening to the press,trying to sell advertising.
Posted by bbrewer126 2020-05-22 13:22||   2020-05-22 13:22|| Front Page Top

#24 Wait until people from NY & NJ start traveling around USA.

Which is bad enough even without covid-19.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-05-22 13:31||   2020-05-22 13:31|| Front Page Top

#25 My initial fear was that covid-19 was a bioweapon and the lockdown was justified because nobody knew what to expect from it. So it was kinda like heading for the air raid shelters. It could still turn out to be a bioweapon and there may be long term ramifications of which we are still unaware. But, as the numbers became available, it began to look like it was maybe somewhat worse than a bad case of the flu. Maybe the bug is not so bad but the real intention of the Chinese communists was to wreck our economy.

So, like SteveS said so succinctly, as we kept OODA looping we should have adjusted rather than entering a new Great Depression, thereby giving the Chicoms exactly what they want.

Maybe the lockdown should have been better targeted; like nursing homes, subways, airplanes and New York City.

I think if the lockdown goes on much longer or if it is renewed at some later date, we could say with some accuracy that the cure is worse than the illness. As an old guy, I haven't suffered much from the lockdown. But I feel for young people who have lost their jobs.

One thing that has made me sick is all these air headed, pompous TV personalities telling us that "We're all in this together." The thought of being in anything together with Gayle King turns my stomach. The media has certainly fanned the flames of mass hysteria. It's something they do quite well.

My fondest hope for this whole sad affair is that it will be a catalyst for change in our relationship with China.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-05-22 14:20||   2020-05-22 14:20|| Front Page Top

#26 I think the WuFlu be with us for a while, just like the 1968 Hong Kong flu and the 2009 Swine flu, both of which are still circulating, and killing people.

After the election, Coronavirus in the US will be old news.
Posted by Bobby 2020-05-22 15:23||   2020-05-22 15:23|| Front Page Top

#27 I work and live in a large city, relative to most of the country (Oklahoma City, OK). Yes, i get that its not Chicago or LA, but it cracks the top 50 or so list of cities in the US. I'm in my 50s. I've yet to wear a mask. I've washed my hands...maybe a dozen times more than I usually would have during the last 60 days. I've missed zero days of going to my office--I'm in real estate and we're "essential" here.

This has all been a bullshit freak show. The entire country should have never been shut down on what was only a problem in a dozen or less locations nationwide. I'm absolutely amazed how easily Americans gave up the rights and liberties.
Posted by Crusader 2020-05-22 16:17||   2020-05-22 16:17|| Front Page Top

#28 

#23 Look at the state of Washington, ground zero in this country. Today only 15 new cases and one death. If there was going to be this big huge 2nd wave,wouldn't it be logical it would happen there first?

bbrewer - agreed. The gap between the rhetoric and the reality on this issue is a chasm. It's ridiculous.

In addition to WA, look at what truly is Ground Zero for the US if not the world outside of Asia, the three counties in the SF Bay Area that include ca. 800,000 or ~23% of the 3.5m population who are Chinese or Chinese-American, most of whom have ties to Chinese cities and at least 50,000 of whom traveled to Wuhan etc after the outbreak - and before the March 19 lockdown.

There should be thousands of deaths in San Francisco alone, with the homeless dropping like flies. Instead there are a grad total of .... 40.

California reported #s as of 5/21 here

San Francisco + Silicon Valley
San Fran./San Mateo/Santa Clara Counties:
Total pop.: 3.5m
Total fatalities attributed to COVID: 254
Fatalities to pop. ratio: 1:13,779

Entire US pop.: 329m
Extrapolated fatalities if US had the same CFR as SanFran-Silicon Valley: 23,876 = low end of a typical flu season
Posted by Lex 2020-05-22 16:29||   2020-05-22 16:29|| Front Page Top

#29 My daily anecdotal observation is that mask wearing is on a hard downtrend. It's a binky and it appeals to people who want a binky.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-22 16:35||   2020-05-22 16:35|| Front Page Top

#30 The armbands of the Karenteilung Morality Police, worn over the face.

Likely you've heard about the Michigan AG. Perhaps you saw the video of the little girl with 6 sum hours of sidewalk chalk getting washed off the concrete by Karen because the little one did the drawings without a mask on.

I wouldn't blame you if you don't walk in circles which are sending out step-by-step instruction on how to train youngsters to public-shame anyone without a mask.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-22 17:22||   2020-05-22 17:22|| Front Page Top

#31 I’ve made this post a Classic, for easy future reference. Good discussion, guys, especially SteveS.
Posted by trailing wife 2020-05-22 18:35||   2020-05-22 18:35|| Front Page Top

#32 Groovy, TW!
Posted by Clem 2020-05-22 18:39||   2020-05-22 18:39|| Front Page Top

#33 I see it. An epitaph on a tombstone: "It's just starting."
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-22 18:54||   2020-05-22 18:54|| Front Page Top

#34 It's childish to send the fire department to spray away little kids chalk drawings. But it's just starting.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-22 18:57||   2020-05-22 18:57|| Front Page Top

#35 ^ wicked!
But funny
Posted by Lex 2020-05-22 18:57||   2020-05-22 18:57|| Front Page Top

#36 I volunteer to be an orderly holding down forever quarantine cultists while they get their ECT.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-22 18:58||   2020-05-22 18:58|| Front Page Top

#37 What's next, shutting down a kid's lemonade stand for not having a license/permit? Oh, wait....
Posted by Clem 2020-05-22 19:47||   2020-05-22 19:47|| Front Page Top

#38 It's childish to send the fire department to spray away little kids chalk drawings. But it's just starting.

Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-22 19:59||   2020-05-22 19:59|| Front Page Top

22:38 Whiskey Mike
22:37 Whiskey Mike
22:27 trailing wife
22:19 rjschwarz
22:01 swksvolFF
21:58 USN, Ret.
21:32 Clem
21:26 Lex
21:25 Jan
21:23 Lex
21:22 Lex
21:21 Lex
21:17 DarthVader
21:04 Clem
21:02 Clem
20:46 M. Murcek
20:45 M. Murcek
20:37 Skidmark
20:36 Skidmark
20:34 Skidmark
20:32 Skidmark
20:20 M. Murcek
20:13 KBK
20:11 M. Murcek









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