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2005-05-25 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

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Posted by Fred 2005-05-25 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 it's not "win-win." Putin sees oil as one of the few remaining strategic levers he has, and is determined to use it for maximum leverage in international relations. Which means that he'd rather not tie his nation's exports to the US market, in fact would be more likely to try to withhold them from the US as a means of punishing us for our encroachments in his backyard. BTW, Russia's national treasury is rolling in money now, and more importantly, Putin's cronies and FSB handlers are enriching themselves at the till as well.

Russia could certainly use massive amounts of investment in its oil drilling and refining infrastructure, but this is a long term need. There is no compelling need now for Russia to increase exports, certainly not to the US. Russia's most urgent economic need is to create a legal climate that will support the growth of new manufacturing firms, not resource extraction firms.

Bottom line is that there will be no progress on PSA legislation or the investment climate so log as Putin's in power (at a minimum), and probably much longer.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-25 03:20|| 2005-05-25 03:20|| Front Page Top

#2 Russia's national treasury is rolling in money now

When did this happen?

Posted by SteveS 2005-05-25 09:44|| 2005-05-25 09:44|| Front Page Top

#3 OK. Russia's Treasurer is rolling in money.

Posted by Jackal">Jackal 2005-05-25 10:55|| home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html]">[home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2005-05-25 10:55|| Front Page Top

#4 Russia's national treasury is rolling in money now
When did this happen?
When oil rose above $30/bbl. Each $1 rise in the oil price adds another $1B each month to Russia's hard currency reserves.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-25 11:16|| 2005-05-25 11:16|| Front Page Top

#5 Russia's economy is schizoid: extraordinarily deep resources, both natural and human/scientific, and yet its manufacturing and agricultural base is an unmitigated disaster. A combination of Caltech and Nigeria. A westernized boomtown, Europe's 2nd largest (Moscow), surrounded by third world poverty everywhere else. About 40 individuals own over one third of the nation's wealth; no real middle class to speak of outside MoscowBabylon; and an entire generation of impoverished Russians (50+) steadily drinking, smoking and stressing themselves to early death.

In short, a living example of the curse of oil wealth.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-25 11:21|| 2005-05-25 11:21|| Front Page Top

17:28 Liverpool !!!
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