Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov
| The view from Russia. How much of this does the writer believe, and how much is what he thinks will sell to his audience? |
[REGNUM] We are most likely witnessing the first flashes of a major war in the Middle East. Much has been said about it over the past year, but it seemed unlikely.
After Donald Trump came to the Oval Office, it seemed that the light of ending the conflict in Gaza and the nuclear deal with Iran was glimmering. But this turned out to be only an illusion, and the new American administration fell into Benjamin Netanyahu's trap. And now the United States may also be drawn into the unfolding new Middle East tragedy, or rather, its new stage.
The situation in the region is developing according to the most escalatory scenario after Israel launched its operation against Iran (IRI) on Friday night. Under the pretext of preventing the Iranian nuclear program (and the Israel Defense Forces do not have the capabilities to cause real irreparable damage to Iranian nuclear facilities located deep underground), Israel carried out attacks against nuclear physicists, generals of the Iranian army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
In the first hours, it seemed that the Islamic Republic had been dealt a mortal blow, which had completely incapacitated it, suppressed its air defenses, and destroyed its stockpiles and launch sites for ballistic missiles.
But already in the evening of the same day, there was a response. First, the first wave of Iranian missiles overcame Israeli air defenses and hit their targets. There were 45 missiles in total, and one could assume that this was all that survived the Israeli strikes. But then came the second wave, the third, and so on.
On Saturday, the attacks on Israel continued at dawn, and rockets continued to fall on Israeli military bases and cities. It is clear that the impact of Israeli air power on Iranian military potential was greatly overestimated.
Israel also continued its attacks on Iran. The city of Tabriz was subjected to particularly massive strikes on Saturday. But since Friday evening, along with missile launches at Israel, Iran's air defense system has suddenly started working, which has started shooting down Israeli drones, and it has also been reported that several fighters have been destroyed.
Thus, the Iranian air defense systems were also not physically destroyed, but only temporarily jammed as a result of an Israeli cyberattack, but were able to restore operation.
It is significant that the main damage, namely the murder of nuclear physicists, IRGC generals and the Iranian army, was inflicted not by the Israeli Air Force, but by launching kamikaze UAVs from the territory of the IRI itself. Therefore, success was not so much due to the Israeli Air Force, but to intelligence.
In this context, the situation with the Houthis is indicative: they were able to prevent Israeli and American agents from penetrating their territory, and therefore massive strikes by the Israeli and US air forces were unable to cause them any significant damage.
By Friday evening, not only the air defense system had become operational in the Islamic Republic, but also the intelligence services, which had essentially failed the first stage of the confrontation with Israel, but had finally begun to intercept trucks filled with drones used by Mossad agents.
LOSER DONALD
It can now be assumed that the "nuclear deal" between the US and Iran has become virtually impossible. Although it should be noted that despite the signs of a major war beginning in the Middle East, a rollback and even a resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran is still possible, although, of course, the chances of this are small. But an Israeli attack on Iran also seemed unlikely before.
One thing is clear: Trump's dream of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, like his predecessor Barack Obama, is becoming increasingly illusory.
Instead of establishing peace in the Middle East, the new American administration is, in fact, becoming the instigator of a new and much more dangerous conflict. And all progress in the negotiations with Iran is instantly nullified.
However, it should be kept in mind that Trump was probably genuinely sincere in his desire to end the Middle East conflicts, make a deal with Iran, and finally withdraw American troops from the region.
But his self-confidence failed him, and the Israeli prime minister was able to begin manipulating him in the same way he manipulated Biden, now taking the new US president “hostage.”
Trump believed he could control the Israeli prime minister, but Netanyahu only played along for a while, demonstrating receptivity to signals from Washington, and then, when the hour came, let Trump know that he could wait no longer.
And if he does not now begin the long-planned operation against Iran, the moment will be lost, so Israel does not intend to wait for permission from Washington, since the countdown has already begun. In this situation, the American administration had no choice but to accept the rules of the game that Netanyahu had set.
Although the Israeli Prime Minister himself took risks.
Trump's recent visit to the Gulf showed that Washington was willing to sacrifice some of its relations with its main Middle East ally, Israel. The Jewish state also feared that Trump might eventually turn his back on them.
But it was precisely this aspect that gave Netanyahu even more incentives to launch a military operation against Iran. Yes, there was a risk that Trump would not support it, having finally placed his bet on his Arab allies, but in the end the risk was justified, and the American administration did not find the strength to go against the established line in the Middle East.
Now, the Arab allies of the United States, who promised trillions of dollars in investment, are looking on in bewilderment as Trump, with his statements of support for Netanyahu's actions, "nullifies" all the promises he made just a few weeks ago to prevent escalation in the region, exposing them, too, to a possible attack by Iranian missiles and drones.
The Islamic Republic has already made it clear that any Israeli attack on it will be seen as joint aggression by the United States and the Jewish state, which means that American military bases in Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will become legitimate targets for Tehran.
Naturally, Israel is adding fuel to the fire by spreading information about the participation of American air defense crews in repelling Iranian attacks and about the full coordination of its actions with the United States.
In this way, he hopes to provoke Iran to carry out operations against American military facilities and draw Washington into a confrontation on its side. Trump himself gives Tehran even more reasons to do so with his ill-considered comments.
"Today is Day 61. I gave Iran 60 days to make a deal. They had to! I told them what to do, but they just couldn't. Now they may have a second chance!" the American president declared, slamming all attempts by the State Department to "disown" Israel's attacks on Iran.
It is clear that in making such statements, Trump was also misinformed by Netanyahu about the results of Israel's first wave of attacks on Iran.
It seemed that if Iran did not respond in the first hours with a salvo of all its ballistic missiles, then it had nothing to respond with: the air defense systems were suppressed, and every minute of delay gave the Israeli Air Force the opportunity to disable more and more Iranian missile launchers. However, Iran's camouflage and counter-attack capabilities were clearly underestimated, and a massive response followed.
Such statements would probably be appropriate against the backdrop of a panicked and paralyzed Iranian leadership, left with destroyed ballistic missile sites and deprived of nuclear infrastructure.
But they were clearly out of place in the context of several waves of attacks by hundreds of ballistic missiles falling on Israeli cities on live television, against which Israeli air defenses, together with American THAAD crews, could do nothing.
TRIUMPH OR BUST
Netanyahu, on the other hand, appears much more confident than Trump in advancing his own line. He decided to carry out the operation when it was no longer possible to delay it, despite the admonitions from Washington.
Iranian counterintelligence was about to uncover Mossad networks in the country, and there might not be another chance to carry out such a strike – and Netanyahu decided to go for broke.
In the first hours it seemed that he had managed to do everything as planned. Iran seemed completely disarmed and neutralized. But the missile strikes on Tel Aviv turned out to be a cold shower and once again return the Israeli prime minister to his usual position, when he will again have to walk on the very edge under the threat of falling into the abyss.
First, Israel failed to achieve its goal of destroying Iran's nuclear infrastructure. This is reported by Western publications and think tanks, among others. Indeed, the above-ground components of these facilities were seriously damaged, but the main production facilities are located deep underground and remained intact.
This means that if Netanyahu fails to draw the United States with its strategic bombers and super-powerful bombs into a direct conflict with Iran, then the Islamic Republic will not only not move away from creating a nuclear bomb, but will obviously decide to create it as soon as possible with an eye to practical use if necessary, and not just for the sake of intimidation.
Second, instead of destroying Iranian ballistic missiles, Netanyahu caused them to fall on the heads of Israelis. Israel has never in its history been subjected to such massive attacks, destroying city blocks and hitting decision-making centers such as the Defense Ministry.
Now everyone knows that Israel, in Trump's words, is a "dangerous place" that has no defense, and therefore investing in this country, locating production facilities there, opening offices there is too risky.
All of Israel's achievements as a leading country in the Middle East have now been nullified, and the Jewish state will live in a new era of constant threats and economic crises with inflation, unemployment and the exodus of residents to Europe and America.
But Netanyahu still has an incentive to escalate. He has nothing to lose. If he fails, he faces jail in Israel and the impossibility of finding asylum abroad because of the ICC black marks.
But success guarantees him the opportunity to establish himself as a new David, who slew Goalif and destroyed Israel's greatest enemy. And this hope gives him confidence that in an instant he will transform from a suspect into the savior of Israel, who will finally ensure the security of the Jewish state for decades to come, and for this he will be not only forgiven but celebrated.
But here, of course, there are nuances.
The attack on Iran became possible only because the latest attempt, if not to completely destroy Hamas, then to inflict a significant defeat on it, ended in nothing - only more murders of civilians.
Much weaker than Hezbollah and even more so than Iran, Hamas has proven to be too tough a nut for the Israeli prime minister to crack.
This is why Israel is forced to resort to a new strategy, trying to erode support for Hamas from within and supporting all forces hostile to it in Gaza itself, including ISIS-affiliated groups. By handing them weapons and using Fatah agents to carry out subversive activities and organize protests.
But, obviously, this path does not lead to the desired result, but begins to bring new reputational and other losses.
In parallel, Israeli operations in Syria were also seriously hampered. After Donald Trump met with Ahmad al-Sharaa in Riyadh, Israeli activity in Syria dropped sharply. And statements by Israeli Druze on the topic of Syrian Druze became conciliatory instead of confrontational.
Netanyahu needs to continue the war, and his political future and freedom depend on it. When all options for continuing, if not effective, then at least spectacular operations reached a dead end, there remained the Iranian card, which he was forced to play.
Of course, strikes on Iran will not destroy its nuclear infrastructure, and Israel has a different goal - to "turn the table" and start a new round of large-scale confrontation in the Middle East. Which could open up new opportunities for Tel Aviv, or it could lead to collapse.
NO RED LINES
But, by the way, the Islamic Republic found itself in a similar situation.
Iran, having been hit and again found itself vulnerable to them, was faced with a dilemma: to accept this situation and declare its defeat in the face of the threat of further coordinated attacks from Israel and the United States, or to challenge them, to continue the fight, albeit in an unequal position, but demonstrating the will and readiness to violate all red lines, up to and including a major war in the Middle East.
Under the guise of nuclear deal negotiations (regardless of Trump's real desire, they were essentially fake), Netanyahu launched an attack when preparations were underway for another round in Oman, and Iran did not expect such an attack.
Now the Islamic Republic believes that it has the right to respond to such treachery by any means necessary. And here the position of the current Iranian leadership is becoming similar to that of Netanyahu in Israel: the attacks left Tehran no choice but to respond harshly.
Any sign of weakness will alienate the Iranian leadership from that part of the population that is considered devoted to the ideals of the Islamic revolution, and will leave the government alone with opposition-minded citizens, whose numbers are growing against the backdrop of the worsening economic situation.
The gauntlet thrown down by Netanyahu gives Iran a chance to consolidate the majority of citizens around the ideas of Islamic revolution and confrontation with Israel and the United States as the highest mission of the Islamic Republic. And any deviation from this position threatens to destroy the state by launching color revolution scenarios.
Therefore, current events in the Middle East may indeed be the prologue to a major war.
RUSSIA IS FAITHFUL TO ITS AGREEMENTS
For Russia, these events are also a serious challenge that forces it to make a certain choice between partner countries.
Statements by the Russian Foreign Ministry make it clear that the Russian Federation will remain true to its agreements with the Islamic Republic, which has been subjected to “unmotivated” aggression by Israel.
The latter, literally before the attack on Iran, again found itself in a scandal when its ambassador to Germany announced assistance to Kyiv in the form of deliveries of Patriot air defense systems, which had previously been in service with its own army.
Of course, it is important for Russia to prevent the collapse of Iran, since Moscow can no longer afford to lose a second ally after the fall of the Assad regime.
Therefore, support for Tehran will not be provided only in words, although it is obvious that the Russian Federation will not enter into a direct conflict in the Middle East with Israel or the United States. It is within this framework that Russia will act.
In addition, this is an important lesson for Russian diplomacy, which allows it to learn from the mistakes of others in order to avoid them. This also applies to the attitude towards Trump's "peace" initiatives, which, as in the case of Iran, may turn out to be just a cover for someone's sinister plans.
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