Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
I'll start: grim...
by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] One of the main news items in the Western media is, of course, the war that Israel has started against Iran. It is viewed from various angles.
This is how, for example, they write about motives. Yes, formally, Israel's goal is to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program (or force Tehran to abandon it), but it is not only about that.
As Foreign Policy notes, “By attacking Iran, Israel seeks to deliver a final and fatal blow to the ‘Axis of Resistance.’ That is, to the group of Middle Eastern movements that Iran leads and directs against Israel. The group plays a key role in Iran’s strategy of military and economic exhaustion of Israel.
In fact, the "Axis" is already weakened - Israel has inflicted a military defeat on Hamas and Hezbollah, the Americans have organized a series of strikes on the Yemeni Houthis, and the new Syrian authorities, with the help of Turkey (and, it is believed, Tel Aviv), have driven Syria out of the "Axis". And if Israel now manages to inflict a military defeat on Iran, this will deprive Tehran of authority, military capabilities and, if it submits to American demands, even of the willingness to continue supporting the "Axis of Resistance".
They also write about how brilliantly Tel Aviv organized the attack. In this regard, the media notes the unprecedented level of Israeli intelligence work in Iran. “The latest operation shows how deeply Israeli intelligence services, including the Mossad, have penetrated some of Iran’s most closely guarded secrets. The operations have made the Mossad a nearly unstoppable force in Iran,” writes CNN.
And, citing an expert, he calls Iranian territory a “playground” for the Mossad, which operates in Iran “with demonstrative impunity.” And that’s why he’s so brazen.
"When it became clear that Israel was about to attack, the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps air force gathered in the bunker to coordinate the response. But Israel knew this emergency protocol, as well as the bunker's location. The Israelis destroyed it," Axios writes.
And it is difficult to argue with the thesis about the omnipotence of the Mossad in Iran. All these years, Israeli intelligence has operated extremely successfully in Iran. Thanks to its work, Tel Aviv managed to eliminate a number of Iranian scientists, as well as organize a series of terrorist attacks on nuclear facilities in the Islamic Republic.
However, the current operation is in no way comparable to previous actions - neither in complexity nor in significance. And after the end of the current conflict with Israel, the Iranians will have to solve the issue of clearing their country of Israeli agents.
But for now, Iran needs to survive, of course, because the escalation of the conflict is in full swing. Yes, the Iranians are hitting Israel. And yes, these strikes have been quite painful for the Jewish state. It is not yet known for certain what and to what extent the Iranians have hit, but all experts tend to admit that the strike was much larger and more effective than the attack in the fall of 2024 (which began after Israel launched a series of strikes on Tehran). And the damage from it has already been calculated.
"It did not cause casualties in Israel, but numerous ballistic missiles slipped through Israel's air defenses and caused damage estimated at between 150 million and 200 million shekels ($40 million to $53 million)," Bloomberg writes.
And that's not counting the cost of the interception operation itself (primarily the price of the anti-missiles - for the Patriot system it is about 4 million dollars), which, according to some estimates, reached 1 billion dollars.
However, Israel has money and weapons - if anything, the Americans will give them. But the Iranian capabilities, as the media believe, have been undermined. And this is not only about technology (a number of air defense systems have been destroyed), but also about the human factor.
The assassination of the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the General Staff "will have a ripple effect throughout the country's military establishment and could seriously undermine the Islamic Republic's ability to respond to Israeli attacks," CNN writes. They were all experienced officers and the masterminds of Tehran's "aggressive policies."
This is partly true - the assassination of the top military command cannot, of course, have a positive effect on the capabilities of the armed forces. However, according to some experts, in strategic terms, these assassinations can only increase the threat to Israel.
“The elimination of the top Iranian command by the Israelis could launch an important process of generational change in the Iranian generals, which was actively prevented by the old generals and their allies from Ali Khamenei’s entourage,” writes one of the Russian Telegram channels dedicated to the study of Iran.
And the younger the Iranian commanders, the angrier and more radical they are toward Israel. This means that the future Iran will be much more dangerous.
Western media also talk about other negative consequences of the Israeli attack for the security of the Jewish state itself – and not only it. “Israel has opened Pandora’s box: the most likely of the Iranian responses will be the worst of them. Namely, a decision to abandon its arms control commitments and seriously develop nuclear weapons,” writes Foreign Affairs.
Israel and the US will have to somehow restrain this desire of the Iranian establishment, but at what expense? The Iranians were first deprived of defensive outposts (the loyal regime in Damascus, as well as Hezbollah and Hamas), and then shown that the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic is of no importance. Therefore, Tehran effectively has a choice - either to create a nuclear bomb or continue to be a whipping boy.
And not only from Israel and the United States, but also from neighbors in the region.
Western media write not only about formal protests from Iraq, Azerbaijan, and the Gulf monarchies, but also about the real feelings of these countries. “Almost all the countries surrounding Iran have reasons to prefer a weak Iran and fear a nuclear one. Diplomacy often takes the form of complex, staged meetings and statements whose simple meaning differs from what the country’s leaders actually feel,” the Atlantic points out.
The Gulf countries (the same Bahrain) cannot be happy with the fact that their Shiite population is largely loyal to Iran and can be used by Tehran as a real fifth column. Azerbaijan has historical and territorial contradictions with Iran, so it fears that Tehran will challenge its sovereignty. The Iraqis are unhappy with the fact that Iran, through the militias and politicians under its control, has already encroached on Baghdad's sovereignty and is trying to control it to one degree or another.
So they will all welcome a weakened Iran – and a significant part of the Iranian leadership may come to the conclusion that only nuclear deterrence can save the Islamic Republic. And it may turn out that an Israeli strike will lead not to the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program, but to its promotion to a fundamentally new level.
"The world would be safer if Iran abandoned its nuclear dreams, but that outcome may be out of reach," the Economist concludes.
That is why the most correct reaction to the conflict is to call for an immediate end to a war that is senseless and dangerous for all its participants, after which they will return to the negotiating table. That is the reaction that Russia is currently demonstrating. Refraining from loud words and statements, the Russian leadership is conducting open and closed negotiations with both Tel Aviv and Tehran.
The only question is whether the players, heated up by the blows, will listen to the voice of reason coming from Moscow.
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