Article

2004-09-02 -Short Attention Span Theater-

Monster Hurricane Frances Heading To Slam E. Florida Coast (Miami?)

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Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-09-02 12:41:54 AM|| || Front Page|| [11129 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 The 3-Day Track Map

Sustained wind max 145 MPH... This one's gonna hurt...

Posted by .com 2004-09-02 6:47:01 AM|| 2004-09-02 6:47:01 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU SEP 02 2004

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM CRAIG KEY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS
MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF CRAIG KEY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES
...135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 470 MILES...755 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WINDS TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

Posted by Steve 2004-09-02 10:48:08 AM|| 2004-09-02 10:48:08 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 As of the 2pm analysis by the NHC, Miami looks like it will escape the worst of the storm.

However, beinning at Palm Beach and going North looks really scary.

Posted by mhw 2004-09-02 3:19:53 PM|| 2004-09-02 3:19:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 BTW .com from last evenning... Parts of Tallahassee are almost 300 ft above sea level... and sea level is only 15 miles away. SkiFlorida! :)

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

ALTHOUGH FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
... DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY
DISRUPTED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 120 KNOTS. THIS
IS PROBABLY A MINOR FLUCTUATION ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE
PROCESSES AND FRANCES COULD EASILY RE-INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL.

FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE OVERALL
MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FORCING FRANCES
TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. ALL TRACK MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE NOW
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
DESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

AT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT
NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 24.9N 76.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 77.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.7N 80.5W 90 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 83.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 06/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND

Posted by Shipman 2004-09-02 4:39:44 PM|| 2004-09-02 4:39:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Here's a five day projection.....

After three days errors trend way up. That being said.... Head for the Hills!

Posted by Shipman 2004-09-02 4:45:28 PM|| 2004-09-02 4:45:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Rush is evacuating!

Posted by BigEd 2004-09-02 4:58:03 PM|| 2004-09-02 4:58:03 PM|| Front Page Top

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