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2007-09-10 China-Japan-Koreas
Taiwan might apply for UN membership -- as Taiwan
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Posted by  2007-09-10 06:22|| || Front Page|| [11133 views ]  Top

#1 Good lord, it's only Taiwan, not China's manhood or something. Let it go. If China gets their hands on Taiwan it's toast, and that would look bad (as in "I haven't heard much about Hong Kong recently, have you?"). Leave a good thing alone.
Posted by gorb 2007-09-10 07:40||   2007-09-10 07:40|| Front Page Top

#2 It was ok during the Soviet hegemony that the Baltic States and the Ukraine had seats concurrent with Moscow, I see no basis to object to this [other than of course the pure play of power]. While we're at it, throw in Puerto Rico also for a seat.
Posted by Procopius2k 2007-09-10 07:58||   2007-09-10 07:58|| Front Page Top

#3 No one expects war until after the Olympics anytime soon, but Chen's move worries U.S. officials enough that they have publicly criticized it.
Posted by Excalibur 2007-09-10 09:06||   2007-09-10 09:06|| Front Page Top

#4 China has not screwed up Hong Kong too much, especially not economically. GDP is up 25% from 2003 to 2007. I doubt they would screw up Taiwan, either. It seems to me that in the long run Taiwan and HK will do more to undermine the Chicoms than vice versa.

But the electronics world would have to seriously reconsider the amount of semiconductor production taking place on Taiwan if the Chicoms took over. TSMC, UTI, et al falling under communist control would have serious implications for the civilian electronics sector. Would it extend to the military? A lot of stuff is bought off the shelf these days. lotp?
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 09:27||   2007-09-10 09:27|| Front Page Top

#5 Watch. Taiwan will declare independence six months before the Olympics.
Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader  2007-09-10 10:01||   2007-09-10 10:01|| Front Page Top

#6 Darth: what, on the theory that Olympic restraint will chill the ChiComs long enough to let the inevitable ground-swell hypernationalist fury pass without help from the official line? Sort of going for two lesser swells - one intrinsic & grassroots at the time of announcement, the other manufactured after the Olympics are over & it's safe to be officially ugly?

That sort of assumes that the Party is rational on the issue of Taiwanese independence, or at least more rational than the 'roiding garden-variety nationalist-in-the-street.
Posted by Mitch H.">Mitch H.  2007-09-10 10:46|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]">[http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]  2007-09-10 10:46|| Front Page Top

#7 The rational response by the Chicoms would be to invade Taiwan and squish it like a bug. Otherwise, every warlord in the empire will be tempted to further remove his satrap from control of the center. Six and a half months should be just about enough time to mobilize the troops and finalize the plan.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 11:00||   2007-09-10 11:00|| Front Page Top

#8 Mitch, I would bet that the bad PR would cause many nations to boycott the olympics. That, after the toy and other export PR problems would really make China not look very good as an investment choice.
I would expect China to make nice and then a couple months after the olympics to try to invade.
Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader  2007-09-10 11:04||   2007-09-10 11:04|| Front Page Top

#9 The rational response by the Chicoms would be to invade Taiwan and squish it like a bug.

Assumming they can. D-Day was a squad short of being a disaster: seven demolition squads failed to blow the wirse barring the narrow exit from Omaha and it was the eight and last who succeeded. But China is not going to enjoy the overwehelming naval and air superiority of the Allies and it would be very embarrassing for the Chicoms if their invasion force became fish food. Embarrassing enough for toppling the Party leader and perhaps regime itself.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2007-09-10 11:20||   2007-09-10 11:20|| Front Page Top

#10 No doubt Taiwan declaring independence would leave the Chicoms few nice choices. But to do nothing would also reveal them to be a fireless dragon.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 11:27||   2007-09-10 11:27|| Front Page Top

#11 Alos there are at least three kinds of people populations in Taiwan: melanesians (ythe original inhabitants), those who came before Japanese occupation and Tchang Kai Check's chinse. The melanesians couldn't care less about China and I am not so sure that the pre-Japan Chinese care so much about it.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2007-09-10 11:31||   2007-09-10 11:31|| Front Page Top

#12 I believe China will respond as they usually do. By threatening the people that trade with Taiwan and thus economically shackling them until Taiwan's people just give in.

If I was the PRC I'd make up a Tawianese Indepedence group to blame for the agitating. Make them sound like the Hawaiians that want Hawaiian Kingdom's return (or similar group in Puerto Rico). The world is filled with such groups and would be willing to ignore the lie to avoid prescidents about Freedom. If I was the PRC I'd also call Tawian an Autonomous Area or whatever the term for Hong Kong is as a semi-explanation of why Taiwan has a slightly different political situation. Hell, I'd even consider telling people that Tiawan settled their independence stuff a decade ago when the Security Council Seat changed and force Taiwan to disprove the lie. Tell the people of China how much aid they send into Taiwan and make them look arrogant and unthankful.
Posted by rjschwarz 2007-09-10 13:35||   2007-09-10 13:35|| Front Page Top

#13 How is Taiwan not "independent" ?

Since when is independence something granted by the UN Security Council?

Does some other state control Taiwan? Is there a colonial governor or viceroy running the show there? A foreign organized army of occupation?
Do Taiwanese pay taxes to some other nation?

Taiwan is a far more prosperous and stable nation state than most members of the UN.

It has a democratically elected legislature, a judiciary and an executive. It enforces its own laws, it has an effective military. It has an advanced industrial economy.

Taiwan is not independent because Beijing claims it? The Chinese claim territory of ten of their neighbors. That doesn't make the lands Chinese.
Can China enforce its writ on Taiwanese soil?

One future Taiwanese nuclear weapon aimed at Beijing or Shanghai and all Chinese dreams of conquest evaporate.
Posted by john frum 2007-09-10 19:03||   2007-09-10 19:03|| Front Page Top

#14 Watch. Taiwan will declare independence six months before the Olympics.

I predicted this here at Rantburg months ago. Any military action would cause a massive Olympic boycott. This is a classic and well deserved no-win situation for China. Both action or inaction mean a loss of face, something prized beyond all measure in high context Chinese culture. Tainted goods already have China on thin ice, if the dragon starts belching fire it'll plunge right through.

Trust the UN to support communist China on this one. No way does the UN want another prosperous capitalistic democracy on board making the rest of their pissant failed member nations look like the despotic hellholes they already are.

Also, no way in hell do we want China taking over Taiwan. As the world's eighteenth economy, Taiwan—with one fiftieth of China's population nonetheless—has one tenth the GDP of China. The politburo's Mandarins drool in their sleep over dreams of raping this incredible little economic powerhouse. Taiwan represents a technology gold mine that would pull China forward in semiconductor manufacturing by decades. That is an entirely unacceptable prospect for any sane person.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2007-09-10 19:40||   2007-09-10 19:40|| Front Page Top

#15 How is Taiwan not "independent" ?

Because not a single country recognizes its independence from China, not even the U. S.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 20:59||   2007-09-10 20:59|| Front Page Top

#16 I predicted this here at Rantburg months ago.

True. And I think it is a great prediction and back it. ;)
Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader  2007-09-10 21:06||   2007-09-10 21:06|| Front Page Top

#17 There are a few countries that 'recognize' Taiwan.

Taiwan has a handful of embassies and quite a lot of diplomatic missions...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_diplomatic_missions

Posted by john frum 2007-09-10 21:12||   2007-09-10 21:12|| Front Page Top

#18 I stand corrected. No wonder China has such a charm offensive going on in Central America.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 21:34||   2007-09-10 21:34|| Front Page Top

#19 Won't work. Their best bet is to seek joint statehood with the mainland. They are already integrating economically.
Posted by McZoid 2007-09-10 21:54||   2007-09-10 21:54|| Front Page Top

#20 Trust the UN to support communist China on this one. No way does the UN want another prosperous capitalistic democracy on board making the rest of their pissant failed member nations look like the despotic hellholes they already are.

Here, here.
Posted by Secret Master 2007-09-10 22:38||   2007-09-10 22:38|| Front Page Top

23:24 badanov
23:03 SteveS
22:55 Secret Master
22:53 Alaska Paul
22:47 gromgoru
22:47 Secret Master
22:44 Alaska Paul
22:38 Secret Master
22:38 Barbara Skolaut
22:31 trailing wife
22:31 Barbara Skolaut
22:29 Barbara Skolaut
22:27 john frum
22:21 gromgoru
22:21 NOLA
22:00 McZoid
21:54 McZoid
21:53 Zenster
21:51 McZoid
21:51 Rob Crawford
21:35 wxjames
21:34 Nimble Spemble
21:33 Zenster
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