Article

2011-11-06 China-Japan-Koreas

Russia Expects N. Korea to Collapse by 2020

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Posted by Steve White 2011-11-06 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11133 views ] Top

#1 If everyone quits propping up the Norks, the govt will fall pretty quickly, and the world can rescue the North Korean people from their nightmare.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2011-11-06 04:26|| 2011-11-06 04:26|| Front Page Top

#2 I am not so sure that South Korea would pay the cost of reunification?

Posted by BernardZ 2011-11-06 05:27|| 2011-11-06 05:27|| Front Page Top

#3 ..they saw what happened to W.Germany when it absorbed the East and isn't too keen about the economic consequences. Even a better reason to negotiate with the Chinese about dealing with a sizable portion of the North for 'co-development' and 'co-administration'. The Chinese are playing their historic claim to that area anyways, make them eat the costs.

Posted by Procopius2k 2011-11-06 08:05|| 2011-11-06 08:05|| Front Page Top

#4 Russia should be encouraged in this thinking. Mostly that a unified Korea would not in any way be a threat to Russia, on the contrary, that it would be one less nuisance in the region, with lots of positive benefits to just about everyone.

Posted by Anonymoose 2011-11-06 09:22|| 2011-11-06 09:22|| Front Page Top

#5 Partition North Korea. Allow the north and northwest to be brought into the Chinese orbit as an 'autonomous region'. Allow the southern and northeast parts to be incorporated into South Korea, either as wholly owned new provinces or as part of a 'confederation'.

The Chinese get access to raw materials. The ROK gets a land link to Russia for the pipeline and for rail. You could let the Chinese have access (not sovereignty, just access) to ports on the eastern side; that would make them happier still.

This way you divide the burden.

Posted by Steve White 2011-11-06 11:44|| 2011-11-06 11:44|| Front Page Top

#6 The Russians seem to be considering the effects of timing, and when would be optimal for them (and by extension perhaps 'less optimal' for others?). I'm sure the Chinese are working the same equation from their perspective. It seems that until both parties believe at the same time that the time has come, the Norks will continue to receive critical forms of assistance under the guise of humanitarian aid and continue to hang on by their fingernails.

Posted by gorb 2011-11-06 12:04|| 2011-11-06 12:04|| Front Page Top

#7 Not while China can use the Norks for third party
intimidation.

Posted by Jack Phuting9685 2011-11-06 19:27|| 2011-11-06 19:27|| Front Page Top

#8 WORLD MILITARY FORUM > RUSSIA: NORTH KOREA WILL COLLAPSE BY 2020 [entered the stage of collapse], + EITHER BECOME UNIFIED OR ELSE SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMICALLY [ + hence also Polically] DOMINATED BY SOUTH KOREA [no longer China?], the latter domination by SoKor to occur between 2011 - 2030 even iff no per se inter-Korean Unification takes place.

and

* SAME > RAND: NORTH KOREA WILL COLLAPSE, RULING ELITE TO SURVIVE + ESCAPE. ROLE OF CHINA IN POST-COLLAPSE NORTH KOREA TO DETERMINE EFFECTIVENESS OF US-ROK INTERVENTION.

* SAME > SCHOLARS: CHINA'S AGING POPULATION, TROUBLED MASS/UNIVERSAL EDUCATION SYSTEM ARE MAJOR FACTORS IN ITS EFFORTS TO EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ASIA.

China's steadily expanding numbers of rural migrants to the big cities typically lack the basic education + technological proficiencies, etc. necessary to compete for jobs agz those from Urban + Suburban areas, even as per low/lower-paying physical labor jobs, FORCING CHINESE COMPANIES TO SEEK "QUALIFIED" WORKERS OUTSIDE OF CHINA???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2011-11-06 23:08|| 2011-11-06 23:08|| Front Page Top

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