Article

2004-03-29 Home Front: Politix

Payroll and Household surveys data out at end of week

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by mhw 2004-03-29 10:50:58 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I don't think the March payroll numbers will have much effect on the election.... temporarily it might cause a boost and offer talking points to one side or the other but by the time the elections are around I think people will only be looking at the last couple months of employment figures.

Posted by Damn_Proud_American 2004-03-29 10:54:38 AM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com] 2004-03-29 10:54:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 The Oct report will be released too late to factor into the election (it will be released on Nov 4 or Nov 5, two of three days after the election). So actually the Sept and Aug reports might be the most important.

Posted by mhw 2004-03-29 11:02:08 AM|| 2004-03-29 11:02:08 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 good point ;)

Posted by Damn_Proud_American 2004-03-29 11:19:35 AM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com] 2004-03-29 11:19:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 DPA - I generally agree. Note however that campaigns are like football games in that it is possible to disrupt the other team's game plan. For example a great running team may be forced to pass all the time if they fall well behind early. Good economic data now would help boost Bush and push Kerry to try more desperate attacks which would impact how the remainder of the campaign goes.

Posted by AWW 2004-03-29 1:18:45 PM|| 2004-03-29 1:18:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 deep irony if good econ data made Kerry throw the bomb

Posted by mhw 2004-03-29 1:27:19 PM|| 2004-03-29 1:27:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Maybe the donks will be forced into a safety.

Posted by Shipman 2004-03-29 2:25:46 PM|| 2004-03-29 2:25:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 The BLS is full of BS. In order to justify the dramatic differences in the two numbers, they basically subtract self-employed and agricultural employees, and add back in folks with more than one job. See my blog here.

The two surveys differ by over 2 MILLION jobs created since November 2001! The reason is the HUGE numbers of people starting their own business. Rather than admit that they have an error in a survey, the BLS tries to argue the difference away by making that very point.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2004-03-29 4:30:33 PM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2004-03-29 4:30:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]

Posted by mhw TROLL 2004-03-29 7:52:07 PM|| 2004-03-29 7:52:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 My daughter had 6 w-2s for 2003 (and she did other things which didn't produce a W-2).

I've an aimless child on the way back from France in August. Is she married?

Posted by Shipman 2004-03-29 8:17:07 PM|| 2004-03-29 8:17:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Your LLC numbers show something but its not clear what; yes there are more incorporations but its not enough to explain away the household vs. payroll gap.
The BLS does the best it can given the situation. The economy today is a dynamic creature and its virtually impossible to design a survey that can allow analysis of all the possible work force options. My daughter had 6 w-2s for 2003 (and she did other things which didn't produce a W-2).

Posted by mhw 2004-03-29 7:52:07 PM|| 2004-03-29 7:52:07 PM|| Front Page Top

23:00 Loyal American TROLL
22:58 JB
22:58 JB
22:50 JB TROLL
22:47 James Smith TROLL
22:43 James Smith
22:43 James Smith
22:38 James Smith
22:38 James Smith
22:37 James Smith
22:37 James Smith
22:35 James Smith
22:35 James Smith
22:33 The Terminator
22:33 The Terminator
22:29 The Terminator
22:29 The Terminator
08:07 Howard US TROLL TROLL
08:04 Canadian TROLL TROLL
08:02 Jack TROLL TROLL
07:59 Moshe TROLL TROLL
07:56 Moshe TROLL TROLL
07:54 Jackson TROLL TROLL
07:51 Jones TROLL TROLL