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2004-07-28 Southeast Asia

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-07-28 12:00:00 AM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 This is the satire section, right?

Posted by Asedwich 2004-07-28 1:12:15 AM|| 2004-07-28 1:12:15 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 This is the satire section, right?

Not necessarily. In Iran for instance, you can choose to vote for Mullah #1, or Mullah #2, or Mullah #3. Or... Warlord #1, Warlord #2... etc etc.

Posted by Rafael 2004-07-28 1:39:56 AM|| 2004-07-28 1:39:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Indonesia is a good example of democracy in the early stages. Can you really say that they are doing worse than we [the US] did in our first 50 years -- say up to about 1830? I, for one, am impressed at how the Rule of Law has prevailed in how the terrorism cases are being handled. They are getting the job done, without bowing to international pressure, or violating due process and constitutional principles.

Posted by cingold 2004-07-28 7:25:48 AM|| 2004-07-28 7:25:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 What was wrong with the first 50 years?

Posted by Mr. Davis 2004-07-28 8:02:56 AM|| 2004-07-28 8:02:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Other than the Whiskey Rebellion, the burning of the White House in the War of 1812, the Alien and Sedition Acts, "Hang John Jay," and the Second National Bank? Nothing much...

Posted by Fred 2004-07-28 8:29:27 AM|| 2004-07-28 8:29:27 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Hey I lost a lot of family in the Whiskey Rebellion. Or was that the moonshine war... hmmm.

Posted by Shipman 2004-07-28 10:46:18 AM|| 2004-07-28 10:46:18 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 I know about the others, but what was "Hang John Jay"?

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-07-28 11:25:45 AM|| 2004-07-28 11:25:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Indonesia was basically a bloody dictatorship from ~1965 to 1988; Americans didn't kill half a million of their own for being communists even at the height of the Cold War. The years since 1988 have been fairly bumpy as well.

I'm going to hold off praising Indonesia as a miracle of Islamic democracy until it's clearly not a gigantic burp in the typical islamic way of doing things.

Posted by Asedwich 2004-07-28 11:30:30 AM|| 2004-07-28 11:30:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 So pick another 50 years that went better. 1837-1887? Dred Scott, Civil War, Suspension of habeus corpus, Income tax, Paper money 1887-1937? Spanish American War, World War I, A. Mitchell Palmer raids, Sacco-Vanzetti, First Depression 1937-1987? Second Depression, World War 2 Cold War, Mc Caran Act, Mc Carthyism, Alger His, Jimmy Carter-that would have been the time to burn the White House.

Posted by Mr. Davis 2004-07-28 12:20:12 PM|| 2004-07-28 12:20:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Paper Money? You mean debt instruments from the federal reserve, aka Haliburton's bank?

Posted by A L Chappeau 2004-07-28 2:16:40 PM|| 2004-07-28 2:16:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 indonesian has been a democracy since 1998, and six years is way too long to really judge anything - but its going better than some would have expected, and its VERY important that radical Islamists are not doing well electorally.

Similarly we have seen democratic politics in Albania. And in Mali, a muslim state in subsaharan Africa.

But what do Indonesia, Mali, and Albania all have in common - they are NOT in the core muslim cultural belt of the Middle east - the arab countries, and Iran (which was conquered early by Islam, and is arguably more culturally arabized than is Indonesia) Establishing democracy at the HEART of the muslim world may prove more difficult - the jury is still out.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-07-28 2:24:22 PM|| 2004-07-28 2:24:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 did i really type "way too long" - oops, shoulda been "way too short"

Need - more - coffee!

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-07-28 2:32:02 PM|| 2004-07-28 2:32:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Haliburton's Bank? Or the Illuminati? OR, IS THIS ANOTHER THREAD OF THE MASSIVE BUSHITLER EFFORT TO ENSLAVE THE WORLD MAKING WEAPONS OF WAS TO USE AGAINST THE POOR?

Oh, never mind.

Posted by Emily Latella 2004-07-28 2:32:37 PM|| 2004-07-28 2:32:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 CSM: Its 216 million people have survived colonialism under the Dutch

Survived colonialism under the Dutch? What are these guys talking about? Indonesia exists as a country because it used to be the Dutch empire in the Far East. Without Dutch colonialism, Indonesia would be a few dozen independent countries. Not to mention that Dutch rule brought Western technology and methods of government to the benighted natives.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-07-28 3:44:14 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-07-28 3:44:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 LH: But what do Indonesia, Mali, and Albania all have in common - they are NOT in the core muslim cultural belt of the Middle east - the arab countries, and Iran (which was conquered early by Islam, and is arguably more culturally arabized than is Indonesia)

The interesting thing is that the post-Suharto years have led to a significant increase in the Arabization of Indonesia. Radical priests who had previously fled the country to avoid being "disappeared" have returned. Extremist Islamic groups are now targeting other religious groups. Where practically no women wore the head covering before, it is now common everywhere.

Bill Clinton's policy of destabilizing friendly governments in East Asia instead of helping them during the Asian crisis is now coming home to roost. And then there was Clinton's support for Timorese independence, which has wrought incalculable consequences for Indonesian attitudes towards the US, without necessarily improving the lot of the Timorese. Make no mistake about it - where Indonesians used to be friendly, in recognition for US help in fighting Communism, it is now outright hostile. Punishing friends and rewarding enemies can only go on for so long, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-07-28 3:55:14 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-07-28 3:55:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Jimmy Carter was in Indonesia during its recent elections. That's why the publicity now.

As has been said before, Indonesia is a work in progress and as polypundit notes, not all the signs are good.

However, the UAE may also soon move toward the democracy side of the coin. Even Libya, yes Libya, could go that way soon.

Posted by mhw 2004-07-28 4:05:05 PM|| 2004-07-28 4:05:05 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 well of course Islamism is more visible now in Indon - it was invisible under Suharto. Doesnt mean it wasnt there, festering. Now its out in the open, and NOT winning elections. Contrast Egypt.

I note a recent study (dont have the link) said the strongest indicator of what country a muslim terrorist would come from was NOT that countrys income, ethnicity, etc - it was the country's degree of democracy.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-07-28 4:07:12 PM|| 2004-07-28 4:07:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Under Suharto, Islamism wasn't invisible - it didn't exist. The mullah who is now under indictment came back from abroad after Suharto was toppled. The openly-radical Islamists who carried out the Bali bombing would have been imprisoned back during Suharto's tenure. Suharto's chief of intelligence, Benny Murdani, was a Catholic - there were no massacres of Christians on his watch. The weakness of the Indonesian state since Suharto was toppled actually mirrors the weakness of the Filipino state under democratic rule.

I think the reason democracy hasn't worked in some East Asian countries is the quality of the ruling class - the leaders in those countries look out exclusively for number one. Marcos and Suharto had an incentive to limit the amount of theft, given that they had lifetime tenures and would want to extract whatever they needed slowly, while keeping the economy as strong as possible. Democratic rule simply means additional sets of hands out for graft, in as short a period of time as possible, given that political fortunes change.

The Philippines was poor under Marcos, but it is now the basket case of East Asia, with both crime and terrorism rampant. Acquaintances in East Asia used to think nothing of visiting the Philippines for a holiday. Today, you'd have to pay them to do it, given the danger from Communist terrorists, Islamic terrorists and kidnap gangs. What a waste - this is definitely one of Paul Wolfowitz's biggest failures - he had Reagan urge Marcos to leave when the right thing to do would have been a hands-off approach.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-07-28 4:40:03 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-07-28 4:40:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 IIUC Phillipines has been growing rapidly economically since fall of Marcos.

Indonesia has largely recovered economically since the 1998 slump.

Yes some exiles came back after 1998 - but the society they reentered, that they find support in, was the society that 30 years of Suhartos rule made possible. It will take democracy some time to build a civil society.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-07-28 4:46:42 PM|| 2004-07-28 4:46:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 this from jubilee UK

In the first 20 years or so of his rule, President Soeharto gave patronage and privilege to many Christians whilst at the same time often repressing many Islamic movement. However, from 1990 he usually gave his patronage and privileged treatment to Muslims. The change of policy may have been related to the growing unpopularity of Soeharto, particularly from within the armed forces, such that he needed to enlist Muslim political support (Vatikiotis, 1994; Schwarz, 1994). This tactic of dividing and ruling caused the Muslim majority in Indonesia to fear losing their privileged position. Such sentiment was then exploited by Muslim extremists.

Increased patronage to Muslims was signified by the formation of the Association of Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals (ICMI) spear-headed by the then Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie. Because Habibie spent so many years studying and working in Germany, he did not have a broad political support base in Indonesia. Subsequently Habibie used ICMI as his power-base.

The rise of Islam in Indonesian politics was also marked by the rise of the pro-Muslim faction in the military and police (note that until recently the police force is part of the armed forces, often known by its initial ABRI). This created major division within ABRI, between the Islamist Officers and Nationalist ones. The nationalists are in favour of secularism while the Islamists support the Islamicising, or at the very least a much greater role for Islam in the political, social and military life in Indonesia. The nationalist camp is often known as ABRI-Red and White (after the national flag of Indonesia) and is led by the current Head of Armed Forces General Wiranto. The Islamist camp is often known as ABRI-Green and was led by among others, Lt. Gen. Prabowo (son in law of ex-President Soeharto), Gen. Hartono and Gen. Feisal Tanjung. The current leader of this camp is unclear, but there appears to be much indication that Major General Zacky Anwar Makarim is at the very least an influential person in this camp. Note that Gen. Makarim has also been implicated in master-minding the destruction and atrocities in East Timor after the referendum on the future of that territory.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-07-28 4:49:31 PM|| 2004-07-28 4:49:31 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 Where practically no women wore the head covering before, it is now common everywhere.

This, added to some other misogynistic aspects of southeastern Asia, as well as the presence of Islamofascist radicals, has me taking this article with a grain of salt. Democracy for some is how it seems for now, at best.

Posted by jules 187 2004-07-28 4:52:12 PM|| 2004-07-28 4:52:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Not one of the top five candidates in the July 5 voting favored the introduction of sharia, Islamic law.

vs
Where practically no women wore the head covering before, it is now common everywhere

Possibilities
1. something being common everywhere is not inconsistent with its being numerically rare. Nader bumper stickers are common everywhere, but i dont expect him to get more than 2% of the vote. What does "common everywhere" mean? 5% of all women? 10%? 40%?

2. Maybe, just maybe, not everyone who wears an Islamist headcovering votes for a candidate favoring the introduction of Sharia law.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-07-28 4:59:29 PM|| 2004-07-28 4:59:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 LH: What does "common everywhere" mean? 5% of all women? 10%? 40%?

From 0% to 20% in a few short years. And this is in the city, where Indonesians are much more secular.

LH: Maybe, just maybe, not everyone who wears an Islamist headcovering votes for a candidate favoring the introduction of Sharia law.

The headcovering isn't just a fashion accessory - it's a political statement. This is why the Singaporean authorities, who have had four decades of experience dealing with Islamic extremists, recently banned the headcovering from its schools - it was spreading like wildfire.

I think liberals think that anything that's repressed tends to get stronger. Not so. Most of the time, repression leads to extinction. Just ask the Buddhist 'stans of Central Asia. What? You mean they're Muslims these days? Yes, thanks to Arab armies that went as far as to defeat a Chinese army at the Battle of Talas River in 751 AD.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-07-28 5:38:26 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-07-28 5:38:26 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 Maybe, just maybe, not everyone who wears an Islamist headcovering votes for a candidate favoring the introduction of Sharia law.

What do you want to do, LH, wait til the threshold is 40% 60%? Look how many have commented on how wearing a head covering isn't a choice in Mulsim communities-it's intimidated by politically, religiously powerful people. The more intimidation, the higher the percentage. What is your threshhold for getting concerned about it?

A little less indifference about what societally enforced head covering means to 50% of the population is in order, not flippancy.

Posted by jules 187 2004-07-28 5:59:40 PM|| 2004-07-28 5:59:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 Liberalhawk, we had a go at this mythical success story re: Indonesia once before awhile back...sigh...but here I go again trying to take off your rose colored liberal glasses...sigh

A. Phillipines has been growing rapidly economically since fall of Marcos
Hot off the presses an article in IHT dated July 26, 2004
http://www.iht.com/articles/531135.html

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo promised on Monday to implement sweeping reforms during her new six-year term as the president of the Philippines, from fixing the chronic budget deficit to making the corrupt and inefficient Philippine bureaucracy "lean and mean."...The Philippines has one of the highest unemployment rates in Southeast Asia and its economy has been among the worst performers in the region....

B. As for Indonesia being a successful Muslim democracy...yuck, yuck...let's be honest about Indonesia the "democracy"...In fact, without the iron fist of a strong military presence [which kind of challenges the term "democracy" as in free and open society without armed military patrolling the streets]and heavy duty American taxpayer funded aide, Indonesia would be another Third World Muslim hellhole. And from the sounds of it, the iron military fist's influence may just get stronger. Here's a July 28, 2004 article from the Asia Times entitled "Power-hungry military overshadows Indonesia"
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/FG28Ae06.html

JAKARTA - Indonesia's fledging democracy has come under threat as the country's power-hungry military is seeking to regain its old powers lost to reform movements since 1998.

In the Indonesian military bill submitted to the House of Representatives (DPR) for deliberations recently, the military (known as the TNI) seeks to revive its territorial command, reintroduce its dual functions and limit the president's authority over the institution to approving troop deployment for war and civic services only.

The DPR is planning to start deliberating on the bill early next week and has promised to endorse it on September 30, just one day before the new members of the DPR elected in the April 5 legislative elections are to take their oaths of office. This means the DPR will have only 45 days to deliberate on the bill, which, if passed, will seriously undermine civilian supremacy and jeopardize the country's young and fragile democracy. That the DPR insists on deliberating on and endorsing the bill now suggests that the military is out to fight for what it wants...The military, which undoubtedly remains the country's strongest political entity, earned praise and respect in the April 5 legislative elections and the July 5 presidential elections as its personnel stayed largely neutral throughout the democratic process, despite the fact that three retired army generals contested in the presidential poll.

But the military's attempts to revive territorial command and to reintroduce its dual functions have put into serious question its commitment to reforms as well as the democratization process in the world's largest Muslim country...In addition to its requests for the return of old powers, the TNI bill also aims to limit the authority of the president over the military to approving troop deployment for war, leaving deployment for other purposes, including quelling social unrest and secessionist movements, under the authority of the military chief. Under its original version released last year, the military was even authorized to declare a state of emergency in certain areas and deploy troops there without necessarily asking for approval from the president. This clearly contradicts prevailing laws that position the president as the supreme commander of the country's military force. During a presidential debate held before the July 5 elections, front-runners Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati Sukarnoputri gave no clear answers to questions related to the military's future political roles. Given the fact that Yudhoyono is a retired army general and Megawati has turned a blind eye to the draft, the two are likely to offer political concessions to the military, especially if the compromises will help them win the September 20 runoff elections...

Posted by rex 2004-07-28 6:38:22 PM|| 2004-07-28 6:38:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 Thanks, rex. I was going to go look for the numbers I had previously seen, but you've saved me the trouble.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-07-28 6:46:23 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-07-28 6:46:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 rex and Zhang Fei: I understand your concerns, but I think your assessments are too dour. I'd go with the opinions expressed in:

"Interpreting the Indonesian Election Results"
Sidney Jones in The Asian Wall Street Journal
EFL
There are three wrong ways to read the July 5 presidential elections in Indonesia: As a guide to who will win in the September 20 run-off, as a clue to what the next president's policies will be and as definitive proof that democracy in Indonesia is secure.
* * *
But here is the main reason for the unpredictability this year. Everything is up to the voters, not the party hacks. Backroom deals worked out by the candidates have not swayed voters. They surprised the pundits during the April parliamentary elections and they surprised us again recently. They will almost certainly surprise us again in September.
* * *
Finally, what does the July 5 election have to say about Indonesian democracy? The signs are all good: an 80% turnout, generally high enthusiasm and a generally fair vote. The way that the electoral process has strengthened political institutions is also heartening: not only has it helped guarantee the legitimacy of the new president and parliament, but it has given new weight to political parties and other institutions, including the new Constitutional Court, tasked with adjudicating any claim of electoral fraud.

Posted by cingold 2004-07-28 8:11:29 PM|| 2004-07-28 8:11:29 PM|| Front Page Top

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