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2004-09-08 Caucasus

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-09-08 12:44:46 AM|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Problem for them is that they will get more blood - Islmaist blood, by the gallon.

Putin is not going to call the dogs off this time, and the US State Department weenies will not be able to pretzel themselves to side with the Chechyn terrs.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-08 1:19:34 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:19:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 I think the nuclear option is a real possibility here.
Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union there has been speculation about the relative security of ex-Soviet nuclear weapons. At the very least, the system of custody, command and control is not all it should be. This has usually been discussed in the context of Islamic terrorists getting their hands on a Russian nuke.

How much more likely is it, then, that elements of the Russian military or the KGB, acting in secret and on their own authority, could gain control of one or more nuclear weapons and use them to avenge the Beslen atrocity?
This scenario could also be used to create plausible deniability for an offially sanctioned attack.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-08 1:29:48 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:29:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Especially given the penchant for the terrorists to regularly 'splode without warning...

Posted by .com 2004-09-08 1:32:07 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:32:07 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 (kicking self) Why didn't I think of that .com? Disguise it as a "work accident" in some Islamoid hellhole.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-08 1:37:53 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:37:53 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 You could have shortened the title to: Arabs want more blood - period.

Posted by B 2004-09-08 1:41:36 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:41:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 AC, speaking of a work accidents...
Bushehr, Natanz have unique scenery that would go extremely well with work accidents.

Posted by Zarathustra 2004-09-08 1:49:30 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:49:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 BTW, I'm very well aware that it is almost impossible for a regular, professionally produced inventory-type nuke to detonate by accident. It hasn't happened in 59 years of moving thousands of the things all over the world, so that is a pretty good indication. In fact, it is very hard to set one off on purpose.
This is not true, however, of the kind of "home-made" device some freak might be putting together in the basement of the local mosque, so the scenario remains credible.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-08 1:49:47 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:49:47 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 How much more likely is it, then, that elements of the Russian military or the KGB, acting in secret and on their own authority, could gain control of one or more nuclear weapons and use them to avenge the Beslen atrocity?

Equally likely is rogue FSB and mafiya elements-- slim difference in the FSU-- gaining control of nukes and slipping them for cash to members of the Dr Khan network. Which means they sooner or later wind up in the hands of the mullahs or AQ or Hezbollah.

If Russia fails, we fail. Putin's speech made me think of 1905: finally, an admission of the rot within the Russian state and the desperate need to reverse its criminalization, demoralization, and enfeeblement.

Another analogy: think of Putin's Russia as Pakistan North. Russia desperately needs our help, and we desperately need Russia to succeed. Get on that plane, Condi and Rummy. And bring an entourage of nonproliferation experts and oil major execs with you.

Let NATO die a quiet death. Give whatever carrots you need to Russia's nuke industry. Get Russia firmly on our side, help them be effective. Get it done this time.

Posted by lex 2004-09-08 1:58:30 AM|| 2004-09-08 1:58:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 AC,

How, if at all, do you secure a port from the likelihood of a dirty bomb slipped into one of the gazillion or so containers that are offloaded automatically each day in LA, Baltimore, Houston etc.?

How do you secure it without throwing a wrench into our shipping trade, hence retail, and thereby chopping off 1% or so from our GDP growth?

Posted by lex 2004-09-08 2:01:19 AM|| 2004-09-08 2:01:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Excuse me, Lex, did I say anything to suggest that nuclear terrorism was unlikely or impossible? Your line of questioning seems to respond to some statement that I did not make.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-08 2:09:34 AM|| 2004-09-08 2:09:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Brits recently deployed some interesting equippment. They are able to see through container walls as it passes underneath. It is designed primarily for finding illegals, but it can be calibrated for all sorts of purposes. Just saying.

Posted by Zarathustra 2004-09-08 2:10:57 AM|| 2004-09-08 2:10:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 Beyond that, we KNOW that Islamic terrorists have been seeking nuclear and radiological weapons for many years and they haven't yet succeeded. In contrast, those who indisputably have access haven't had the incentive-----until now.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-08 2:13:55 AM|| 2004-09-08 2:13:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 AC, the funny part of the KNOW is that the moment they succeed, we would KNOW in the most disturbing way--they would use it as soon as they can deploy it. Hopefully, that is not in cards and contingencies exist for cases of collapse of regime , like Pakistan.

Posted by Zarathustra 2004-09-08 3:47:46 AM|| 2004-09-08 3:47:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 I've posted a new WoT Futures poll on this question of nuclear retaliation, go ye there and vote.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-08 3:58:17 AM|| 2004-09-08 3:58:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 Zarathustra, we (the US) also have systems that can "see through" container walls and we can detect nuclear weapons using this and other types of sensor. The system is a drive through system that collects an image when the container is on a truck. However our primary means of vetting containers is through inspection at the source comapny, when the container is loaded and sealed, since the majority of containers come from reputable companies.

Posted by V is for Victory 2004-09-08 8:40:39 AM|| 2004-09-08 8:40:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#16 lex - you pose your questions as if they weren't already a possibility. The only thing that has changed is the Russians willingness to fight harder against the terrorists.

I'm sad to think of what this means in terms of ratcheting up of bloodshed. But ratchet up it will.

Posted by B 2004-09-08 9:12:41 AM|| 2004-09-08 9:12:41 AM|| Front Page Top

#17 There certainly could an "accidental explosion" of a cobbled together nuclear device that the terror boys assembling in their basement. I wouldn't shed a tear. However, nuclear devices from various countries all have signatures, and our gov't would know almost immediately where it really came from I don't suppose we would have to tell, though

Posted by DLS 2004-09-08 1:16:21 PM|| 2004-09-08 1:16:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 DLS -- presumably the terrs would be using fissile material they stole -- somehow -- from the Russians. That way, the signature would LOOK Russian, even though it was a work accident on the terrs part.

At least, that's the story I'd stick to.

Posted by Robert Crawford 2004-09-08 1:23:13 PM|| [http://www.kloognome.com] 2004-09-08 1:23:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 RC. I like the way you think. Maybe the terrorists could manage to steal five or six. We could only wish they could figure out a way to hijack a MIRVed SS 19. Wouldn't that make a pretty glow in the east.

Posted by DLS 2004-09-08 2:00:19 PM|| 2004-09-08 2:00:19 PM|| Front Page Top

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