Article

2004-09-12 China-Japan-Koreas

South Korean minister sez it's unlikely that NK tested a nuke

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-09-12 1:09:26 AM|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Another railroad accident?

Posted by trailing wife 2004-09-12 2:40:11 AM|| 2004-09-12 2:40:11 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 "A mushroom-shaped cloud about 3.5 to 4 kilometers (about 2-2 1/2 miles) in diameter was monitored during the explosion"...somebody with a pyrotechnical background can maybe explain how many kilo tons of TNT we need for a regular North Korean mushroom cloud......nothing to worry about I guess grmpfff

Posted by Dutchgeek 2004-09-12 6:09:16 AM|| 2004-09-12 6:09:16 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 I call bullshit and more leftist attempts to play down the danger from the Norks, courtesy of Roh Moo-hyun's party ...

Posted by Edward Yee 2004-09-12 10:16:11 AM|| [http://edwardyee.fanworks.net] 2004-09-12 10:16:11 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Possible linkage: 1) It was revealed that South Korea had been futzing around with nuclear stuff; 2) Colin Powell went and jacked up the Chinese (I suspect he told them to sit on the Norks or the US couldn't stop SK, Japan, and Taiwan from going nuke); 3) The Chinese warn the Norks; 4) The Norks probably blow off the Chinese, again, just like they did right before the trains blew up; and 5) Something else big, on the border with China, blows up.
That is, I suspect the Chinese don't like to be told to "stick it".

Posted by Anonymoose 2004-09-12 10:56:12 AM|| 2004-09-12 10:56:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 somebody with a pyrotechnical background can maybe explain how many kilo tons of TNT we need for a regular North Korean mushroom cloud......

Approximately 6400(SLs).

Posted by Dr Science MS 2004-09-12 11:35:21 AM|| 2004-09-12 11:35:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 I poasted this to other threads - but imagine several tons fo muntiions or rocket fuel being explosively ignited. Now look into the region where this "mushroom cloud" occurred.

Did some digging. Here's a bit of open source unclassified geography lesson for you guys.

Yongjo-ri is in the area of the explosion.

This area is known for its munitions factories and has several rail lines that form a nexus there.

The Rodong/Nodong missle factories and storage depots are also within 10Km of this town.

And remember - any large explosion that is intense enough to produce a central column of heated fast-moving air mixed with dust/particles will produce the vortices on the outside that cause the "mushroom" to appear.

Draw your own conclusion.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 11:44:42 AM|| 2004-09-12 11:44:42 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 The Rodong/Nodong missle factories and storage depots ~~are~~ were also within 10Km of this town

Posted by Frank G 2004-09-12 11:48:04 AM|| 2004-09-12 11:48:04 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Map in this article from S. Korea.

Gov't Confirms 'Non-Nuclear' N. Korean Explosion

Posted by 3dc 2004-09-12 12:30:00 PM|| 2004-09-12 12:30:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 I wonder how many Syrians bought the farm in this "accident"

Posted by Frank G 2004-09-12 12:35:28 PM|| 2004-09-12 12:35:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Last paragraph from 3dc's link:
"The government official said, 'We will be able to know the exact cause only after North Korea makes an official statement or intelligence authorities announces the results of their analysis.'"

Yeah, like that's gonna happen. And if they do say anything, it'll probably be a fireworks factory that blew up.

Anyone find any satellite pics of this yet? I read somewhere the explosion happened too fast to track, and then I read in another article satellites tipped the incident off.

Posted by nada 2004-09-12 1:03:35 PM|| 2004-09-12 1:03:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Just thinking, if the US *did* have some kind of satellite rail-gun, that could shoot relatively small kinetic projectiles at ridiculous speeds accurately from space...

Posted by Anonymoose 2004-09-12 1:56:02 PM|| 2004-09-12 1:56:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 When you have thousands of tons of munitions you can get the pseudonuclear effect. This incident in NORK may be similar to the one that happened in Port Chicago in 1944. Exerpts:

On the evening of 17 July 1944, the empty merchant ship SS Quinault Victory was prepared for loading on her maiden voyage. The SS E.A. Bryan, another merchant ship, had just returned from her first voyage and was loading across the platform from Quinault Victory. The holds were packed with high explosive and incendiary bombs, depth charges, and ammunition - 4,606 tons of ammunition in all. There were sixteen rail cars on the pier with another 429 tons. Working in the area were 320 cargo handlers, crewmen and sailors.

At 10:18 p.m., a hollow ring and the sound of splintering wood erupted from the pier, followed by an explosion that ripped apart the night sky. Witnesses said that a brilliant white flash shot into the air, accompanied by a loud, sharp report. A column of smoke billowed from the pier, and fire glowed orange and yellow. Flashing like fireworks, smaller explosions went off in the cloud as it rose. Within six seconds, a deeper explosion erupted as the contents of the E.A. Bryan detonated in one massive explosion. The seismic shock wave was felt as far away as Boulder City, Nevada. The E.A. Bryan and the structures around the pier were completely disintegrated. A pillar of fire and smoke stretched over two miles into the sky above Port Chicago. The largest remaining pieces of the 7,200-ton ship were the size of a suitcase. A plane flying at 9,000 feet reported seeing chunks of white hot metal "as big as a house" flying past. The shattered Quinault Victory was spun into the air. Witnesses reported seeing a 200-foot column on which rode the bow of the ship, its mast still attached. Its remains crashed back into the bay 500 feet away.

All 320 men on duty that night were killed instantly. The blast smashed buildings and rail cars near the pier and damaged every building in Port Chicago. People on the base and in town were sent flying or were sprayed with splinters of glass and other debris. The air filled with the sharp cracks and dull thuds of smouldering metal and unexploded shells as they showered back to earth as far as two miles away. The blast caused damage 48 miles across the Bay in San Francisco.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2004-09-12 2:51:29 PM|| 2004-09-12 2:51:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 One other thing: the Norks have long planned to set barrage rates for their artillery across the DMZ to exceed 400,000 shells an hour.

That requires huge amounts of ammunition, and the Communists love to ahve everythign in centrally contraooled and planned areas. So you get a very few HUGE weapons and ammunition depots with unbelievable amounts of ordnance.

One of those goes off, it is a real mess. Ask the Soviet Northern Fleet about it from 1984 or 1985 (IIRC).

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 4:43:35 PM|| 2004-09-12 4:43:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 But isn't that explosion pretty far from the DMZ and pretty close to China? Or am I too slow on the pick-up?

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-12 4:58:56 PM|| 2004-09-12 4:58:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Very close to China. IN mountainous areas.

Easier for them to secure and control. Remember that the dictatorship there doesnt want ANYONE to have the ability to put weaponry together except the command authority, and even then, only when and where they want.

If you store the ammo locally and the local commanders have access, they can arm their weapons, and fire easily and quickly in the event of a war - something the US does.

But for a dictatorship, having a local commander that had that kind of firepower makes a rebellion that much easier to start and that much harder to suppress. Dictatorships require a disarmed populace, and a large but relatively low-on-ammo military, and heavy forces in the Secret Police mode that have lots of ammo.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 6:33:01 PM|| 2004-09-12 6:33:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 #13 One other thing: the Norks have long planned to set barrage rates for their artillery across the DMZ to exceed 400,000 shells an hour.

OldSpook, I've heard these sort of estimates for a long time. Without wanting you to reveal anything not already in the public domain, aren't these figures extremely unrealistic? Here's some cocktail napkin calculations:

400,000 rounds per hour represents a firing rate of well over 6,000 rounds per minute, or 100 per second. Assuming a very generous cycle time of two rounds per minute, it still requires over 3,000 field pieces to deliver such a barrage.

North Korea's well known poverty imposes some pretty harsh limitations upon, not just safety - as we so often see, but also on how often they can refresh their munitions or refurbish and calibrate the guns. If either are outdated the rate of misfires and equipment failure will rise dramatically.

I do not see where the North has sufficient monetary resources to periodically live-fire the number of guns needed to sustain such a shelling rate. The cost of ammunition and the wear on equipment alone would represent an enormous expenditure. Just to have that many shells in storage plus the cost of refreshing their propellant and explosives every few years would be outrageously expensive.

At $100 per shell (averaged for original manufacturing cost and periodic rework) for a three hour barrage, that's well over TEN MILLION DOLLARS worth of munitions right there. Spreading out the refurbishment cycle over five years still demands some two million dollars per annum above that original price just to keep their inventory ahead of its shelf life. None of this takes into account the cost of handling, storage and rework facilities or even the ancillary cost of maintaining the guns themselves.

Combined, a conservative cost estimate would be on the order of TEN MILLION dollars a year, just for the artillery and munitions. They also have tanks and planes, plus their rocketry to fund as well.

I'm thinking that the North Koreans are sitting on a mountain of dud shells and corroded guns that will breech detonate and kill their field crews half the time. Please feel free to correct any misapprehensions I may have stated above.

Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 6:47:55 PM|| 2004-09-12 6:47:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 Mossad. Obviously.

Posted by borgboy 2004-09-12 7:17:12 PM|| 2004-09-12 7:17:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 They do plan on it.

They have enough tubes and crews.

And its a surge rate, not a sustained rate for more than several hours.

And I'd surmise they have the fire elevations engraved on the guns and directions already staked in the firing positions for thier first 12 hours worth of fire missions. They've had decades to do that. And accuracy is not all that much needed - they intend to do a WW-I style drum/walking barrage (after the initial TOT fire on the highest priority targets). They want volume to make up for accuracy - and given that their targets for most of those shells will be fixed depots, forts, C3I centers, and then will move to terroizing cities (notably Seoul), you dont need much accuracy.

As to poverty, they are poor precisely because all their wealth goes into their armaments. Plus a few big heroin sales and missle sales (to Iran, etc) and they can recoup a lot of that quickly.

Plus, remember exactly what I said. Remember John Kerry also plans to be President.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 9:08:24 PM|| 2004-09-12 9:08:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 OldSpook, I realize that North Korea's poverty is a direct result of them diverting so much of their revenue into arms buildup. I just think that they are spread way too thin to have been so rigorous with munitions replacement protocols. Like I said, a three hour barrage would entail 1,200,000 shells. If it went on for twelve hours, that's almost 5,000,000 shells. No small potatoes. That's a whole lot of magazine space plus transportation and handling logistics, especially when such assets are concentrated in order to avoid alternate use by disgruntled officers. Thank you for responding, I was just curious.

Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 9:35:20 PM|| 2004-09-12 9:35:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 No matter what the exact numbers are, the Norks must have a HUGE stockpile of shells. What happens with old munitions that are past their 'best if used before' date? Do they become duds or do they become touchy and prone to react spontaneously?

Posted by SteveS 2004-09-13 12:12:03 AM|| 2004-09-13 12:12:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#21 I am hoping that this was a manufacturing facility or sime portion of their proliferation network. If weapons and drugs provide the majority of your hard currency, then it's not a stretch to put your ammunition factories on 24 hour 7 day a week schedules. Maintenance becomes an unaffordable luxury when attempting to achieve an impossible production schedule promulgated by idiots above.If we are lucky, irreplaceable capital assets have been slagged.

Posted by Super Hose 2004-09-13 1:12:52 AM|| 2004-09-13 1:12:52 AM|| Front Page Top

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