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2004-09-16 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-09-16 3:16:49 AM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 With 15% of the Russian population being Muslim it's no surprise. The Iraqi government has an even bigger problem. Of course, it's a two-way street - they can also place agents within the jihadi movement much more easily. Here again, there's an asymmetry. If a jihadi agent is caught, he goes to jail. If an Iraqi government agent is caught, he is tortured to death. Not an easy obstacle to get past.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-09-16 3:28:12 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-09-16 3:28:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Police have been implicated in kidnappings for ransom and accused of allowing Chechen rebels free passage through checkpoints -- motivated by either money, sympathy for the fightersâ cause or family ties, or a combination of all three.

This, lex, is why I have taken your recommendation for the new alliance of the 21st century with a grain of salt. Once before I have pointed out the "breathtaking capacity for corruption" in the former Soviet Union. (The added factor of Chechnya being a former Soviet satellite state-right?-still under Russia's control makes finding a good terror policy for Russia an utter nightmare).

Posted by jules 187 2004-09-16 3:51:48 PM|| 2004-09-16 3:51:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 I don't propose an alliance. More like a hug your enemy strategy, or if you like, a full-court press on Putin to go our way much as Musharraf, that other dictator atop a criminalized state with a highly disloyal, anti-western security service, has done.

Stop viewing Russia as a western democracy in the making. Better to think of Russia as Pakistan North, only with white faces and black shirts. Russia is a failing state, and the mafiya's favorite money-laundering outlet, Dubai, just so happens to be a favorite for the jihadists and their backers. We need a strong Russian president who will crack down on this. No truly democratic Russian leader could do so effectively. The democratic institutions in that country are far too feeble for that to happen anytime in the next fifteen years, and we don't have that much time to wait.

Our Russia policy has been a not-so-deliberate wish to see Russia democratic and weak. That won't cut it anymore. I'd rather see a strong(er), more effective Russian state that can actually help us in this war--even at the cost of less democracy.

Posted by lex 2004-09-16 4:13:36 PM|| 2004-09-16 4:13:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 I don't believe I said anything about Russia being "a western democracy in the making". I think the jury is still out.

I don't like your Pakistan model, though. Theology as the driving force of nations makes me a bit nervous.

Posted by jules 187 2004-09-16 4:22:54 PM|| 2004-09-16 4:22:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Sorry, Jules, I should have written "we Americans should stop viewing Russia as a democracy in the making."

The Pakistan model is deeply disturbing to me, esp as I have Russian family there, but I think that's the most accurate and useful one. The FSB are out of control. As are the regional governors. THe Russian state is so completely incompetent it's in danger of collapsing, which would throw open the ex-SovUnion WMD candy store to the Iranians and Dubai middlemen for the jihadists. Scares me sh-tless.

Posted by lex 2004-09-16 4:29:26 PM|| 2004-09-16 4:29:26 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Russian family in Russia. Trust me, I know whereof I speak when I say this nation is failing. If the price of oil falls back to earth, the entire rotten structure will collapse. The only thing propping it up is $40+/bbl oil.

Posted by lex 2004-09-16 4:31:53 PM|| 2004-09-16 4:31:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 I believe you. I don't have family in Russia, so I can appreciate how much more important this is to you, but I have two very dear friends who both came to the US from Russia, and they have family there.

They keep me on my toes when I start getting too uppity about how I see Russia.

Zdrahstvuitye, lex. :)

Posted by jules 187 2004-09-16 4:38:22 PM|| 2004-09-16 4:38:22 PM|| Front Page Top

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