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2004-11-18 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

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Posted by tipper 2004-11-18 2:54:04 AM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I keep seeing these posts 'bout Putty. He's working through a rough patch, he's not so bad. Yeah, - yall are right, Putty's our buddy, alright. We can really count on him. What a guy. What an ally. Just takes my breath away. With friends like Putty, we're all set.

Posted by .com 2004-11-18 3:36:12 AM|| 2004-11-18 3:36:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Headline should just read..."Business as usual at the UN. (Useless Nations)

Posted by 98zulu 2004-11-18 6:08:55 AM|| 2004-11-18 6:08:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 .com, Putin's not the issue; the point here is the criminalization and failure of the Russian state. As I say, Putin is a pathetic figure surrounded, as Musharraf is, by throughly corrupt and disloyal security forces. There is no realistic alternative to Putin at this point. We need his country's government, at a minimum, not to collapse, which is what may happen if oil prices crash as they did six years ago.

Posted by lex 2004-11-18 6:27:49 AM|| 2004-11-18 6:27:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 That's not the point here, lex. The point here is:
"Russia Stalls UN Hunt for Iraqi Assets"

You want to give Putty a blank check? Sure thing, knock yourself out. BUT, everything I said is dead-on-the-money. I say Putty's a major part of the problem - as evidenced by his request to drop the requirement for elections in the provinces and give him the power to appoint those officials - rammed through the Duma like a good One Party System should operate. Look, you can fear the fall of Putty, you can make all sorts of cases for propping him up, but he has not moved one fucking inch toward making the fledgling Russian democracy work - all movement has been in the other direction.

Geez, be honest about this situation, no matter how it pains you. I'm dismayed by your comment. You don't want somebody worse to run Russia, I presume. Fine, but that doesn't negate my comment.

The link is hosed, but we have US Gov't officials on the record, so I commented.

Posted by .com 2004-11-18 6:43:14 AM|| 2004-11-18 6:43:14 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 You want to give Putty a blank check?
I take your point, and am probably doing a bad job expressing my thoughts here (Still waking up). Of course we should put the pressure on him as we do Musharraf. My only point here is that Russia needs a ton of attention, much more than we should be devoting to the Europeans, and more subtle diplomacy than we traditionally have used toward this crucial swing nation.

The Russian state today is like a dysfunctional adolescent who's in danger of running off and joining a criminal gang. IMO we should intervene, as the shrinks say, and swarm the little bastard with (very) tough love. So I'm arguing, clumsily perhaps, for carrots as well as sticks: help for Russia's nuke industry, more trade, more investment in Russia's dilapidated oil infrastructure.

Posted by lex 2004-11-18 6:57:31 AM|| 2004-11-18 6:57:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 lex - Okay, I hear you and agree with some of what you said - just not the part you'd prefer, I guess, heh.

Let's ask the obvious question: And he will do what with all that attention and deference? I see nothing, absolutely nothing, to offer confidence it will have any positive effect. He'll do what the Arabs do: take it and make that the new starting point for negotiations. In other words, all concessions are signs of weakness and, once offered, are forfeit with no reciprocation or conciliation in response.

It was less than a year after meeting with Bush at the ranch, the big love-in, "I can work with this guy" quote, blah3 before he stabbed us in the back in the UNSC over Iraq. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

He's bulletproof at home, a phreakin' rock star, etc. Are the Russians morons? Given what I've seen since Gorby...

But, as you say, the shadow is moving. Their hard currency cash cow is headed for the barn - that infrastructure problem. I know people at Exxon who went over and negotiated with them - the deal that was tossed out the window recently. One guy told me they are headed for the toilet bowl, and he's no suit, he's a 30 yr O&G engineer. So, bro, we tried to invest money, materiel, and expertise from the best in the business - and got stiffed. And this is their most important currency generator.

It doesn't matter that I think him a greedy KGB throwback who's systematically abusing the system and dragging them backward into the old-style of doing biz... I'm just this guy who comments on a blog... unless it's true.

If we can (and should) demand transparency, honesty, reliability, and probity of others, such as the Paleos and Euros, then why not of Putty? Why should he get a pass? He's a rock star - he could be using that "capital" to do good things for Russia, like Bush has vowed to do with his re-election capital. Sorry, something seems wrong here. You are so intellectually consistent and honest - this sticks out like a sore thumb, bro, and I don't get it. But I'm done - said what I really think. Sorry we're on different planets on this one - and yes, I agree, it is important. Peace. :-)

Posted by .com 2004-11-18 7:26:46 AM|| 2004-11-18 7:26:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 I agree with most of what you say, esp the part about the rot underneath Russia's bogus economic "boom." The oil industry there needs about $100B in investment, acc to McKinsey. And then there are the absurd and massive PSA and other legal issues. (btw, I worked there for three years, speak the language, know the politics and the economics fairly well, married a lovely and brilliant Russian woman.)

But you're wrong to interpret my recommendation as urging "deference." Not at all-- I specifically said very tough love, which means in practice saying to Putin, we're not going to renew ABM, we're going to put troops in Central Asia and advisers in Pankisi, we're going to take down your little venture in Iran's nuclear business.

But to ease the blow, we're going to help your nuclear industry with hard cash, we'll ease steel tariffs for you, we'll increase funding tenfold for the Nunn-Lugar anti-prolif program, we'll guarantee Exxon's investments provided you push real PSA legislation through the Duma and intervene to ensure XOM's investment actually reaches the oil wells and the royalties are actually paid. In short we'll treat you like a great power, not a shitty little afterthought of a country, and respect you enough to bust your chops when you cross our interests, as you've been doing flagrantly in the middle east. That's what I mean by tough love. Nothing in common with "deference" or "niceness."

Posted by lex 2004-11-18 7:39:50 AM|| 2004-11-18 7:39:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Ah - that sounds great! The bust their chops thing is overdue - they DID break the deal with Exxon and stab us in the back in the UNSC... and did it, it appears, with the belief that they were somehow immune, too. Stupid, that, since we could set them back a long way just by recommending and backing the Iraqis when they announce they will not honor Russia's IOUs from Saddam nor would they be an acceptable trading partner, anymore. That would twist their knickers into some nasty knots, heh.

I'll wait and see, like everyone else, what happens. I lack confidence because Putty has given me no reason to have any. Call some old friends and get your point across, maybe it will filter up! If he has any plans other than taking care of himself and making himself a modern Tsar, then he has wasted a lot of time, trust, and capital.

Posted by .com 2004-11-18 7:54:59 AM|| 2004-11-18 7:54:59 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 Funny thing about Russkies, fingers and cookie jars.

Posted by Capt America 2004-11-18 10:55:02 AM|| 2004-11-18 10:55:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 "Are you sure you've already looked under the couch cushions?"

Posted by Seafarious 2004-11-18 11:00:05 AM|| 2004-11-18 11:00:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Putin's a transitional figure of little real consequence. I've no idea who comes next, but it's important IMHO to let Russia know a) we won't tolerate any more games re. Iran and b) we support and wish for a healthy Russia that can protect its borders and build a modern economy based on more than oil and gas.

Posted by lex 2004-11-18 12:05:20 PM|| 2004-11-18 12:05:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 "Floor mats. Let's go take another look under the floor mats."

Posted by Seafarious 2004-11-18 12:11:19 PM|| 2004-11-18 12:11:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 "Nuttin up my sleeve ..."

Posted by Bullwinkle 2004-11-18 4:05:14 PM|| 2004-11-18 4:05:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Putin is emblematic of a bigger problem with former Soviet states, which the author of "Resurrection" correctly pointed out [this is a paraphrase]:

Individuals were not raised to work through moral dilemmas-the Soviet Union chose for them. When the Soviet government collapsed, with no moral framework within individuals to control their urges and guide them, all hell broke loose.

And it has, as many who have lived there know. The more you can fool the government or any authority figure for that matter, the more you are respected. Within this context, Putin would be respected for schnookering the US.

Posted by Jules 187 2004-11-18 4:16:28 PM|| 2004-11-18 4:16:28 PM|| Front Page Top

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