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2005-01-27 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by Steve 2005-01-27 9:26:35 AM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 What happens after the ChiComs take Taiwan? Then they won't have that issue to blame for their governmental shortcomings?

Posted by glenmore 2005-01-27 12:41:14 PM|| 2005-01-27 12:41:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 More like, what happens when they are repelled into the sea? They'd be crazy to threaten a nuke exchange w/us. Within 20 yrs we may have a fully functioning anti-missile defense sheild. If they were to somehow take Taiwan I believe it would be a very pyric victory.

Posted by Jarhead 2005-01-27 1:04:18 PM|| 2005-01-27 1:04:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 glen - theyd ride for a long time on the glory from the military win. Theyd let the next gen of chicoms worry about legitimacy with the Taiwan issue gone. I mean when youre a system fundamentally in decline, why worry about the long term if you can buy 10 or 15 years?

JH - I cant see the US threatening a nuke exchange over Taiwan.

Ive always assumed theyd be repelled, and that a blockade against Taiwan would be the optimal strategy. Amphib makes sense if they think they have to win fast, before a US counterblockade begins to hurt. Still pretty hard to pull off, I think, even with them finally getting some amphib capability - and of course theres a lot more to amphib capability than just getting the boats, right JH? Not too many modern militaries have managed an opposed amphib landing - its not easy, IIUC.

I suspect building up capabilities is more important as part of the dance of threats with Taiwan. I mean if its 90% sure the Chicoms will fail, and youre a Taiwan leader, do you really take the chance they'll succeed for some symbolic jesture towards independence?

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-01-27 1:17:51 PM|| 2005-01-27 1:17:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 LH, the U.S. wouldn't be threatening the exchange, the article states the Chinese would be initiating that threat. My contention is such a threat might be moot in 20 yrs due to our advancing technology. Or, are they really willing to threaten the exchange w/us over Taiwan either way?

Your right wrt amphib capability, boats is not enough. Amphib planning is the most tedious thing (according to many of our pubs) a modern mil can undertake. The USMC has some great books on amphib planning that the hard core buff may like but pretty dry for anyone else. The biggest problem imho is coordination of fires, maneuver, air assets that can give you vertical envelopment capabilities, and follow on logistics. Decent weather also helps. If they were planning an invasion of Taiwan we'd pick up on their troop movements and massings pretty quick. Not sure we'd cut them off in the straits but we could get there quicker then they'd like. Plus, whose to say that in 20yrs the chinese political/economic/socio situation may have changed and this is no longer a viable goal for them.

Posted by Jarhead 2005-01-27 1:36:01 PM|| 2005-01-27 1:36:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Moreover, it is suspected that these missiles, and their half ton warheads, are being equipped with precise GPS navigation systems.

Yeah? So....who's system are they using?

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2005-01-27 2:26:56 PM|| 2005-01-27 2:26:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Loral's.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-01-27 2:30:57 PM|| 2005-01-27 2:30:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Davis, so right. Moreover, the $200M Chinese investment in Europe's GPS project, >"US Could Shoot Down Euro GPS Satellites If Used By China In Wartime: Report."

Posted by Duke Nukem 2005-01-27 3:11:53 PM|| 2005-01-27 3:11:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Europe GPS Project

Posted by Duke Nukem 2005-01-27 3:12:40 PM|| 2005-01-27 3:12:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Mines, lotsa mines, cheapest show stopper of 'em all.

Posted by Shipman 2005-01-27 3:29:05 PM|| 2005-01-27 3:29:05 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 USMC-Issue Rat
http://www.rightwingnews.com/archives/week_2005_01_16.PHP#003369

Posted by mojo 2005-01-27 3:56:43 PM|| 2005-01-27 3:56:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 300km is not like crossing the English Channel on D-Day. Conventional amphibious troop carriers would take a day or more, they would be sitting ducks. Night vision and radar makes this a 24hr sitting duckfest. As the saying goes, you cannot get there from here.

Posted by john 2005-01-27 6:57:24 PM|| 2005-01-27 6:57:24 PM|| Front Page Top

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