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2005-03-22 Britain

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Posted by Anonymoose 2005-03-22 7:58:32 PM|| || Front Page|| [6 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 somewhere between 20,000 and 750,000 extra deaths

From the same people who said the Iraqi civilian casualty figure was somewhere between 10,000 and 100,000? This is science?

Posted by Hupising Cliting6229 2005-03-22 9:21:57 PM|| 2005-03-22 9:21:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Disease mortality projections are a wild guess. There are a large number of variables, such as how the disease is introduced into the population; overall public hygiene, general health, and information control; the health care system; how rapidly the government responds with quarantines, innoculations, sanitation and cadaver removal. The influenza itself is prone to mutate unpredictably, with most mutations, in this case, making the disease less contagious and lethal. Finally, it is almost impossible to predict what percentage of the population is naturally immune to this particular strain. However, based on the lethality of the Spanish Flu, even the 2M estimate may be low. I could imagine a 10M out of 60M reduction, with maybe another 5-10M disabled for six months or more.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-03-22 9:35:27 PM|| 2005-03-22 9:35:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 most mutations, in this case, making the disease less contagious and lethal. True but irrelevant. The mutations that make it more contagious and to a lesser degree more lethal will be the ones that spread.

The thing you have to keep in mind is any population will continue to be at risk until its immunity level is well in excess of 50%. Immunity results either from being having been infected or being immunized. It will take 6 months to get an effective vaccine and at least 12 months to produce enough to immunize more than 50% of the UK population. We don't know what the existing level of immunity to H5 is, but we have to assume its low. So it will be a question of keeping the disease in check until sufficient vaccine is available. Some places may be able to keep it out entirely, but most of the worlds population live in places that will not get vaccines in any relevant timeframe and whose governments do not have the wherewithal to implement disease control measures. However many it kills in the UK, hundreds times more will be killed in the developing world.

Posted by phil_b 2005-03-22 9:59:45 PM|| 2005-03-22 9:59:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 That works off ideal suppositions. People can very actively change, or not change, their risk factors. Plus, even with a lack of immunity, there is a strong difference between exposure and infection. If you receive an exposure of too small a quantity of the pathogen to overwhelm your immune system's response, you can develop at least partial immunity without ever developing an infection.
Mutation is very important, as was demonstrated with the Swine flu of the 1970s, which mutated to a much less lethal form just before arriving in the US. Unlike other pathogens, where mutation is purely Darwinistic, influenza has a high number of "flexible genes" that mutate with little or no logic. Last but not least, all carriers are not equal. For this reason, the US tends to emphasize not only an outbreak quarantine system, but give priority of vaccination to those individuals most likely to contract and spread the disease, i.e. school-age children. The bottom line is that this flu is very, very special, and it will be a major war once it evolved easy human to human transmission.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-03-22 10:17:06 PM|| 2005-03-22 10:17:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Summa you medical-whizzes might find the Scientific American article on the computer simulation of a smallpox release interesting. March, 2005. Targeted vaccination and quarantine makes the difference between 435 dead after 70 days and 12,499 (with no response). I'd say that a *substantial* difference!

There have also been several flu articles over the past few months.... Me? I like the pictures.

Posted by Bobby 2005-03-22 11:46:48 PM|| 2005-03-22 11:46:48 PM|| Front Page Top

23:46 Bobby
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