Article

2005-04-17 China-Japan-Koreas

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by tipper 2005-04-17 13:25|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Japan is lurching out of the opium delirium that "if you're nice to people, they will be nice back". And once they start to get their act together, they will find that it will solve myriad problems. Putting money into their defense industry will stimulate their economy. Putting a little macho into their people will stimulate their birthrate. And then they will realize that a defense without an offense doesn't win a game. The bottom line is that they are faced off against China, and caught in the middle of a China-US brawl, so unless they have quills like a porcupine, they're going to be kicked like a ball.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-04-17 2:01:06 PM|| 2005-04-17 2:01:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 An interesting article - thx, tipper! Although I usually find it rather comical when Western "analysts" attempt to define other cultures, particularly Asian and Middle Eastern - those with which I have more than a passing knowledge, in a few words and using Western concepts and values, this one isn't a joke. It seems to me to be an extreme example of a middle of the road / oil on the waters approach... with one exception: it is overly kind to China and overly hand-wringing regards Japan.

Of course Japan will have to find its own way, regards how it approaches the need to "moderately" rearm and remilitarize itself. They have hard times within living memory for past overreaching. Duh. They're doing what they can and should in that regard.

The animosity between Japan and China is oddly put, IMHO, with a very apparent slant toward China. Perhaps that's not so surprising in some ways, since the publisher of TNI is chaired by James Schlesinger - a Nixonian. But the slant feels real, no matter the learned tone nor the marshalled arguments - they've been rather selective about what facts are presented.

The notion that the US is needlessly antagonizing China, and the subtle dismissal regards China's overt aggressiveness and play for Asia hegemony - and how that affects Japan's recent changes in posture, are the comic centerpiece that the authors just couldn't seem to resist. Thus the article is saved from patent conventional wisdom boredom and elevated to slanted opinion piece worthy of my dismissal. Japan is its own master - and will do what it must to defend its interests and future. I hope we are there to help them, as needed and where mutually beneficial.

I know the China hands here can and probably will see this differently, but that's cool. I see China dead ahead and clearly working hard toward something more than mere hegemony in Asia. I see them as a bona-fide enemy-in-waiting. TNI can suck up to them if they want.

Posted by .com 2005-04-17 2:20:35 PM|| 2005-04-17 2:20:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Moose hits on a point I have been thinking about for some time that deserves more emphasis. Japan has been in a no growth slump for a decade. It has depended on export demand to rescue it in an environment that is becoming more and more competitive. Domestic demand has not responded to pick up the slack. It is not in depression, but it has been stalled for some time. A boost in demand from defence spending may have the same tonic effect on its economy that it had on the U. S. economy in 1939. It may then grow into a more balanced economy like the U. S. economy and take some of the burden off us for being the consumer of last resort. If it makes the Chinese think twice about these bully boy tactics, all the better.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-04-17 2:36:07 PM|| 2005-04-17 2:36:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 I agree, Mrs. D. Another side effect: there are only so many technologies that you can advance for consumer markets alone. One reason defense R&D can be so powerful overall for a country's competitive posture is that often defense problems are a lot harder and more complex than those in other sectors. That means that to solve them takes broader, deeper skills and often results in breakthroughs with significant spinoff value downstream. I went to B school from defense projects and it was obvious that my profs had no idea how much more challenging my work had been from anything they consulted on.

Posted by rkb 2005-04-17 2:51:20 PM|| 2005-04-17 2:51:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Bush must make clear his opposition to Japan acquiring nuclear weapons or major power-projection capabilities such as long-range bombers or aircraft carriers. This would be inherently destabilizing and ultimately antithetical to Japan's own security interests. So Japan's and much of Asia's security should rely on appeasing China. Bulls***!

Posted by phil_b 2005-04-17 3:21:40 PM|| 2005-04-17 3:21:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Wretched seems to think and I agree that we are walking, if not jogging into a naval confrontation with China. I seriously doubt if Bush or any element in our government would be silly enough to take this guy's advice and tell the Japanese they must rely on our navy for their defense; that Japam could never be allowed to provide for itself the neccesary hardware they need to defend against China and that includes power projecting weapons such as bombers and especially air craft carriers.

Posted by badanov 2005-04-17 3:29:21 PM|| [http://www.rkka.org] 2005-04-17 3:29:21 PM|| Front Page Top

Bush must make clear his opposition to Japan acquiring nuclear weapons or major power-projection capabilities such as long-range bombers or aircraft carriers.

I've got a better idea. Bush should make clear he WON'T oppose this. Better yet, let's help the Japanese acquire those "major power-projection capabilities."

No need for them to get their own nukes - just station some of ours in Japan (with their permission, of course). That would definitely twist some Chinese shorts. :-D

Posted by Barbara Skolaut 2005-04-17 3:55:39 PM|| 2005-04-17 3:55:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Japan is an island. It depends on the ocean to bring almost every thing it needs. Not having it's own robust deep water navy with China arming like it is, is foolish. I have never met a foolish Japanese person in my life yet, though some must exist. I think Japan will realise it has to do certain things to beef up it's military. That includes a few real air craft carriers (they do know how to build them after all) and, a Nuclear deterrent of some sort (possibly non-nuclear in nature.)

As for anyone saying they understand the Japanese or any major Asian culture, that makes me want to laugh. If you are not Asian you simply will not get it all, just as they have a hard time getting it all about North American culture. Anglo-Saxons do not have the memes Asians are born into, even if they have lived amongst them for years.

Posted by Sock Puppet 0â Doom 2005-04-17 4:02:51 PM|| [http://www.slhess.com] 2005-04-17 4:02:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 In case any ya'll haven't noticed:
The Japanese have been propping up the US dollar. Have been courteous enough to hold $800 billion in US dollars from their cumulative trade surpluses with us. Done because we have a commitment, publicly stated or not, to side with them against China. Our (nuclear) umbrella protects Japan from the Chinese and NKor rain

Posted by sea cruise 2005-04-17 4:18:46 PM|| 2005-04-17 4:18:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Sock Puppet 0â Doom: memes are one thing, Douglas MacArthur is another. Before WWII, Japan was truly a megalithic culture, but even then it judiciously copied from Europe technologies and disciplines that it integrated seamlessly into its culture. After WWII, this integration was enormous, but directed towards American ideas. Japan today is strinkingly western compared to Japan of yesteryear. Granted, it still keeps much of its adaptable culture, but doesn't let it get in the way. And yet, it also stays a player in the far east, absorbing good ideas from its more rigid neighbors, to Japan's advantage. But Japan does not export its culture in any great way, unlike the US or China, whose conflict is as much cultural as political. So, in the final analysis, the Japanese may understand a great deal about us, but we still strive to reach and understanding of them. Their true meme, as it were is absorbtion.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-04-17 6:12:34 PM|| 2005-04-17 6:12:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Japan doesn't need our (ie the US's) nukes - they can build their own (and recent estimates are they can build quite a few of them in less than a year).

The Japanese MSDF, their equivalent of our Navy, is already retooling and retraining its people for a more offensive role in the region. Check out any of several JMSDF websites and see what their own people are saying.

The Japanese MSDF people are proud and they realize they have a long tradition of service to Japan and they're ready to put it on the line if anything comes down their way.

The MSDF is also steadily growing (unlike the USN which has been radically downsized from a force of over 660 combat vessels to less than 200 today over the years since Reagan built it up) and may be a match for anybody else's navy in the entire region if they aren't already, aside from the USN that is (the MSDF does have offensive striking power against intruders in their territorial waters and its quite effective - their lack of aircraft carriers and long-range, deep-water striking capabilities is being altered, but will require a change to their constitution or a deception similar to the one used in the 1930's).

Posted by LC FOTSGreg 2005-04-17 6:46:52 PM|| 2005-04-17 6:46:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 what LC said. Don't let the commerical fool 'ya. They're good, very, very good.

Posted by Shipman 2005-04-17 7:25:18 PM|| 2005-04-17 7:25:18 PM|| Front Page Top

00:04 Sherry
23:58 Huputch Jesh6219
23:08 Spemble
23:08 Frank G
23:02 Sock Puppet 0â Doom
22:58 mom
22:52 Frank G
22:50 mom
22:49 Frank G
22:48 Chinese Unoque7533
22:46 mom
22:43 Zhang Fei
22:41 phil_b
22:37 Frank G
22:34 Pappy
22:23 CrazyFool
22:12 smn
22:08 phil_b
22:08 smn
22:05 thibaud (aka lex)
22:02 .com
22:02 thibaud (aka lex)
22:00 Penguin
21:52 badanov