Article

2006-02-16 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

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Posted by anonymous5089 2006-02-16 01:33|| || Front Page|| [11133 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Very good article, a5089. You're on a roll! Oh, and I didn't comment on your Europeann nihilism/suicide post yesterday, but I think you nailed it there. Please consider yourself and your family invited here should you find yourself seriously threatened by events -- we need analysts of your calibre on this side of the Pond. No reason for you to swallow the poisoned Kool-aid with the rest.

Intersting bits from the article:

Now that Israel has pulled out of Gaza, there is a clear, firm Jewish majority in the territory west of the Jordan River. 67 percent, in fact.

...this majority is assured to continue well into the future, in light of a shrinking Arab population in Judea and Samaria (1. 8 percent), a rising Jewish population in Israel (2.1 percent), large scale Arab emigration since 1950 and Jewish aliya (immigration to Israel) that began in 1882.

Hamas' victory will spur on Arab emigration (especially amongst PA employees and their families), and growing anti-Semitism in France and the former Soviet Union will spur aliya (Jewish immigration).

...the demographic establishment ignores the quick drop in natural growth in the third world, the Muslim world (1.9 children per woman in Iran), and the Arab world (2.9 children per woman in Egypt).

...developments that have led to a drop in natural replacement rates amongst Palestinians: The introduction of family planning (52 percent of married women use birth control), a rising median age of marrying couples and divorce rates, better education, higher awareness of women's careers and the drastic move from villages to cities.

...The demographic establishment ... minimize[s] Jewish natural growth and exaggerate[s] that of the Arabs, to dismiss the potential of Jewish immigration to Israel and to ignore Arab emigration from Israel.

...Jewish productivity over the last five years (2.7 children per woman) is higher than the highest scenario considered by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, whereas the Arab numbers (4 children) approaches the lowest scenario.

According to UNRWA, Arab productivity in the West Bank has plummeted, from 5.4 children per woman to 3.24.

...In 1900 Jews constituted just eight percent of the population west of the Jordan, in 1948 it was 48 percent, and today we are 60 percent. Without Gaza, the Jewish majority is stable at 67 percent within the "green line", Judea and Samaria....

Posted by trailing wife 2006-02-16 08:13|| 2006-02-16 08:13|| Front Page Top

#2 According to UNRWA, Arab productivity in the West Bank has plummeted, from 5.4 children per woman to 3.24.

Couldn't be b/c of conversations like this?

Mahmoud (Abdul's father): Oh, Janeen, Abdul's ~~grown~~ blown up so fast!

Janeen (Abdul's mother): Yes, he was a DYNAMITE kid!

Posted by BA 2006-02-16 08:51|| 2006-02-16 08:51|| Front Page Top

#3 These kinds of stats need to be shouted from the rooftops. This gives me (some) hope for Europe too. In fact, of the Muslims I know here in the States, they're only having 1-2 kids, because they can't afford any more in the U.S. Not quite the idealistic "melting pot" (they still tend to keep to themselves, hang out around the mosque, etc.), but in this arena, they are becoming "Americanized."

Posted by BA 2006-02-16 08:54|| 2006-02-16 08:54|| Front Page Top

#4 Welfare reform is the big hurdle in the EU. They pay to keep 25-50% of males between 20 and 30 enemployed as part of their social contract. That's why the muzzies can multiply there without the penalties that accumulate here. Also, we assimilate immigrants the Euros isolate them, at least if they're muzzie.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-02-16 09:04|| 2006-02-16 09:04|| Front Page Top

#5 1. Counting the area west of the river as including Israel and the WB but excluding Gaza is a tad artificial. Do you really think Israel can successfully wall off Gaza while retaining the West Bank?

2. Demographic data on the number of Pals, rates of growth, etc are matters of considerable controversy in Israel. Theres been revisionist attacking the demographic threat idea for several years. Theres also counters to them. From what I understand, the majority of professional demographers in Israel dont agree with the revisionists.

3. when I saw the headline, I thought it was about europe, and was surprised to see it here. In fact IIUC second generation birthrates there are much lower than immigrant birthrates.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-02-16 09:45|| 2006-02-16 09:45|| Front Page Top

#6 http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=585148

heres an article that discusses BOTH sides of the controversy. You need to really read it in detail to get the disagreements. Note that Ettinger is a strategist, not a demographer.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-02-16 09:49|| 2006-02-16 09:49|| Front Page Top

#7 "According to UNRWA, Arab productivity in the West Bank has plummeted, from 5.4 children per woman to 3.24. "

according to UNRWA, but not apparently, according to the Israeli Cent Bur of Statistics.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-02-16 09:51|| 2006-02-16 09:51|| Front Page Top

#8 I think Paleo emigration will continue to be the #1 reason for decline in their numbers. This is because they prefer living under Lebanese, Jordanian or even Egyptian rule than self-rule.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-02-16 10:16|| 2006-02-16 10:16|| Front Page Top

#9 Time to return Paleos to historical homelands.

Posted by gromgoru 2006-02-16 10:21|| 2006-02-16 10:21|| Front Page Top

#10 Israel needs to think like the Boer Repulics (Transvaal Republic and the Orange Free State). By that I mean they should create two Jewish states. Israel in the current borders and Judea in the west bank. Borders could be arranged nicely and Israel could not be held responsible for any misdeads of her sister state since it is an independent republic.

Eventually, if Judea pushed things too far Israel could step in with a coup or bloodless coup and absorb the region.

Such an arrangement wouldn't fool most people but neither has the current one.

Posted by rjschwarz">rjschwarz 2006-02-16 12:02|| rjschwarz.com]">[rjschwarz.com] 2006-02-16 12:02|| Front Page Top

#11 It needs to be remembered that dictators lie. It's what they do best. Even when they would like to tell the truth, their underlings lie to them. The Soviets never published realistic demographic data. They even lied about things as verifiable as the population of Moscow. The paleos are no different. It's all about what numbers would best help their arguement.

Posted by Formerly Dan 2006-02-16 16:28|| 2006-02-16 16:28|| Front Page Top

#12 How did a million Palestinians "disappear"?

Why, the Zionists butcherd them, drank their blood, and gave their Korans to their children to flush down the toilets and draw cartoons all over the words of the Prophet, of course!

Posted by Bobby 2006-02-16 19:18|| 2006-02-16 19:18|| Front Page Top

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