Article

2006-05-10 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Don't underestimate the weakness of Iran's theocracy

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Posted by JAB 2006-05-10 10:56|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I cant imagine more than one generation living under theocratic rule. There again I aint Muslim and cant possible understand them. I have seen video of the Iranian leaders at Friday morning prayer shouting Death to America and Death to Israel but not really offering a way to improve life for the average Iranian. Hatred can only be maintained for so long then people begin to wonder why they have this hate towards ________. Usually, people need a bit more to hang onto except the morning rant. Someday soon the oppressed people of the world will turn towards their leaders and demand: Show me the Money! If they cant then they are finished. I wish the Shah well and may he have a good struggle.

Posted by Cyber Sarge 2006-05-10 13:25|| 2006-05-10 13:25|| Front Page Top

#2 Weakness is defined by having Mullah heads on poles. Anything else is wishful thinking.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-05-10 14:20|| 2006-05-10 14:20|| Front Page Top

#3 An internal overthrow would be the best case scenerio, but it also might be wishfull thinking. Iran freaks me out because I can solve all the worlds problems without even trying, all except Iran.

Posted by rjschwarz">rjschwarz 2006-05-10 15:23|| 2006-05-10 15:23|| Front Page Top

#4 did the demonstrations on hearing about the UNSC resolution take place, since we didnt hear about them?

Maybe, maybe not. 1. In all likelihood a dissident exagerates what is happening. Weve seen that regularly from the Iranian opposition. 2. OTOH, western media isnt strong on the ground in Iran. Its an authoritarian society. If the demo doesnt happen outside the hotel windows in downtown Teheran, Im not sure the MSM hears about it. 3. Theres a certain amount of demos we DO hear about, relating to local economic issues and so on. Is it possible there was a spike in these, and the relationship to the UNSC res is impossible even for someone on the ground in Iran to discern?

No leaders -well obviously theres somebody who manages to coordinate student strikes, and there are labor leaders who coordinate strikes, etc. I think this means there are no national leaders around whom the entire opposition could rally. Whether thats true or not, I dont know, but its consistent with localized protests. Not sure if theres even, say, a national student leadership, or if the students at individual campuses, for ex, just organize around a campus leadership.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2006-05-10 15:51|| 2006-05-10 15:51|| Front Page Top

#5 I haven't RTWT, but does the article address the thousands of suicide boomer volunteers? Or the Basijibots?

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2006-05-10 16:01|| 2006-05-10 16:01|| Front Page Top

#6 I think LH is right. Local protests could be confused or misrepresented as being linked to the UN referral. The Iranian dissidents often overstate their case so the media can be forgiven for not covering it, especially when there are few AP stringers roaming the Iranian hinterlands.

By 'organization' I mean groups with an objective and strategy for achieving it rather than just throwing a demo here and there which is more akin to a temper tantrum. Even if this organization is local in nature it is more likely to join a united front if it has a longer term set of goals and somebody who can speak on behalf of the group.

I agree that Iran is a tough nut to crack. I read Rantburg to get a better idea of what's going on and what the strategy should be. Based on what I've seen, there has been a tad bit of movement towards an organized, national resistance with credible leaders in the last 2 weeks, though it's still a hint. Pahlavi was very explicit about overthrowing the regime in the Human Events article. In the past he has been more circumspect. Now he's providing details. Hossein Khomenei has criticized the current regime but has not, to my knowledge, clearly stated what he thinks should happen.

I think these two represent the best hope for a united national resistance leader who could then articulate demands and conditions to achieve human rights. Their ancestry gives them some credibility (and, of course, baggage) as national leaders, especially since neither has stated a desire to rule themselves. If any of the other groups were going to provide leadership it would have happened already.

The reason I am so concerned about a national leader is that I think Pahlavi could almost triangulate between the evil Americans and corrupt Mullahs. In this scenario, he could say to the people (and select military units) "take to the streets, overthrow the mullahs, I'll lead a provisional government until we have true open elections, then we'll root out corruption and pursue our nuclear ambitions in a manner consistent with our treaty obligations. Otherwise, I'm worried that the Crazy Cowboy will mess up our country." We could then offer 'carrots'(like WTO membership, non aggression treaty, genuine manufacturer C-130 parts nuclear power tech, etc.) with reasonable conditions that would be acceptable to Pahlavi but not to the Mullahs.

This is just an scenario I have been thinking about. I'm sure holes can be shot in it, but I am trying to be more realistic than some in the US who think Iran is ripe for a spontaneous pro-American student revolution against the Basji while still holding out hope we can avoid a war.

Hopefully Pahlavi gets enough traction that we start to worry about Iranian intelligence having him killed.

Posted by JAB 2006-05-10 18:16|| 2006-05-10 18:16|| Front Page Top

#7 I'll throw my two cents in:

There isn't a national leader, and there won't be until the rural areas come around. Tehran and the rest of the urban areas can demonstrate all they want. The ranks of the Pasadran and the 'native' part of the Basij are from the countryside.

There won't be a clear picture unless there's HUMINT and some intrepid reporters inside Iran. For example, the official unemployment estimate is 30%. It's likely much higher than that, perhaps even double in the younger age groups. At this point there's no clear way to find out.

Posted by Pappy 2006-05-10 20:34|| 2006-05-10 20:34|| Front Page Top

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