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2006-07-14 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

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Posted by Fred 2006-07-14 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Gotta love the name: "Operation Just Reward." Kinda sums it all up nice and tidy-like. Almost brings tears to my eyes.

Posted by USN,Ret 2006-07-14 00:06|| 2006-07-14 00:06|| Front Page Top

#2 "Operation 'You asked for it, you're gonna get that and more'"

was deemed too long

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-07-14 00:13|| 2006-07-14 00:13|| Front Page Top

#3 I kinda favor Operation "After 58 Fucking Years It's About Fucking Time To Settle This Fucking Sumbitch Once And For All", but that's just me.

Posted by Therong Ulaising6138 2006-07-14 00:34|| 2006-07-14 00:34|| Front Page Top

#4 I would like to think that the IAF is supressing Hezbollah's command and control intrastructure and taking out as much of it's tactical and operational mobility (by taking down bridges) as it can in preparation for something bigger. With the Saudis and Egyptians apparently declaring their neutrality (you never know with Arabic... they might have actually said they were going out to the kebab shop) and the Americans sitting on top of Iraq, the Israelis might be able launch something decisive. Now if we can convince the Soddies that Hamas has secretly converted to Shiism as the price for all that Iranian aid, we'll be golden.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-07-14 00:44|| 2006-07-14 00:44|| Front Page Top

#5 TL - can you make that into an acronym?

Posted by Captain America 2006-07-14 01:25|| 2006-07-14 01:25|| Front Page Top

#6 How about ..... Operation Stuck on Stupit.

Posted by Besoeker 2006-07-14 01:52|| 2006-07-14 01:52|| Front Page Top

#7 Is it just me, or is Iran using Hamas and Hizballah to deliberately provoke Israel, drawing them out so as to have an excuse to test a nuke on Tel Aviv?

On one hand, it seems a tad premature. On the other hand, I don't see the utility of kidnapping 3 Israeli soldiers without some larger objective in mind. Saudi and Egypt seem to sense something larger they want nothing to do with as well. Or am I just being paranoid?

Posted by ST 2006-07-14 02:21|| 2006-07-14 02:21|| Front Page Top

#8 I wonder if the IAF has got that long range autonomous bomber operational yet.

Sorry, couldn't find a link, but we discussed it a while back.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-07-14 02:57|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-07-14 02:57|| Front Page Top

#9 ST, yes, this are deliberate moves of chess pieces on the board by Iranians.

I doubt that Iran has nukes ready, but they may try some other nasties, chemical and/or biological. Of course, one wonders what Ahmadinutjob has on his mind for August 22.

Not necessarily atacking Israel, I think. Perhaps a test detonation somewhere in uninhabited area in Iran, to announce that Iran as nuke power is 'fait accompli'. The actual test may happen several days earlier, say about 18th, he just wants enough buffer if something fizzles first so there is enough time to recalibrate and try again.

Ahmadinutjob calculated that the Arab world would line up against Israelis when they would respond to Hizbollah provocation, and that he would use them as proxies in his war with Israel. Then becoming a nuke power would provide a leverage, prestige and power to become a leader in the war against Israel, but still rather pulling the strings from the distance.

He miscalculated. Soddies and Egyptians smell a rat and the stench is so overwhelming that they keep as much distance as possible. Syrians are wetting themselves and feeling like a pawn that they are.

What's next? Ahmadinutjob cannot risk losing face. Iran would be drawn prematurely into the conflict, once Syria is the next stage of the war in maybe 10 days or so.

That would scramble his carefull choreography and the table would turn.

Meanwhile... One of the missiles fired agains Israel by Hizbollah was long range. I have no doubt it was a test. There is probably a warhead, C/B, that is waiting to be unleashed on Iran's command. That means Israelis don't have much time and need to go first for possible locations of WMDs, rather than clean the border area first and push northward, meaning they have to sustain some katyusha barrages.

When the WMD missile(s) is/are destroyed within Lebanon, Iran would ask Syria to fire one from the proximity of Lebanese border. Two possibilities... either it would hit Israel, or it would be shot down. In either case, it would be the casus belli for Israel to get medieval on Pencilneck and settle the score.

For a long time, we were stuck at 1938. It is now mid-summer of 1939. My crystal ball says so.

Posted by twobyfour 2006-07-14 03:18|| 2006-07-14 03:18|| Front Page Top

#10 Two things to consider: Iran has to be looking over its shoulder at the US forces that will almost certainly stomp them flat if they mess with Israel. They have to be nuts or just talking trash. And what if Saddam handed its CB weapons to Syria just before the US stomped them flat? If they existed, could those weapons have ended up in Iran's hands, and possibly be contributing to their current behavior?

Posted by gorb 2006-07-14 04:08|| 2006-07-14 04:08|| Front Page Top

#11 Thx, 2x4. Gorb raises an interesting point too.

Already, multiple casus belli exist for Israel to get medieval on Iran. And the US, for that matter (backing Shi'a insurgents in Iraq, to take only the most recent example).

I've heard about the Aug 22 thing -- the date Saladin entered Jerusalem, Mahdi climbs out of the well etc etc. So just what will it take for the Israelis and/or us to finish this shit -- I mean really finish it?

Posted by ST 2006-07-14 04:59|| 2006-07-14 04:59|| Front Page Top

#12 If I were a betting woman I'd place a month of Mr. Wife's salary on Saddam's CB weapons being buried in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. We watched the trucks go back and forth just before the invasion, and that Iraqi general who's been on the talk show circuit selling his book (I saw him talk to poor Jon Stewart on Comedy Central's "Daily Show") asserted that he saw the loaded trucks and airplanes with his own eyes. Surely we've given Israel the satellite photos...

Posted by trailing wife 2006-07-14 07:16|| 2006-07-14 07:16|| Front Page Top

#13 TW, I'm smelling Quid pro Ro: Israel is allowed by the US to smack down Hezbollah, and eventually Syria, in exchange for getting to the Bekka Valley and uncovering Saddam's WMD. Iraq gets justified immediately, Liberals and Democrats get the equivalent of a broadsword thrust up their ass to the hilt, the Iraqui western front gets pacified, AND Hezbollah gets flushed.

Posted by Ptah">Ptah 2006-07-14 07:52|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2006-07-14 07:52|| Front Page Top

#14 I predict Iran and Syria will get smacked simultaneously later this month. The only difference is that Iran will lose nuclear and missile facilities overnight but the entire Syrian government and military will be pounded to dust over a period of weeks. Assad will not live to read about the Iran destruction in his morning newspaper.

Posted by Darrell 2006-07-14 09:24|| 2006-07-14 09:24|| Front Page Top

#15 This can only get in a worse mess, although I think the Israelis have no choice. Cleaning out nests of vipers is necessary but will bog IDF down in Lebanon, just like the US in Iraq, NATO in Afghanistan, India in Kashmir, Russia in Chechnia, Japan in North Korea. See any patterns here?

I suspect the response from the Dems in Washington will be that it is all GWB fault: if he had not invaded Iraq, Saddam would have had no excuse to ship his WMD to Syria. and thus make them available to Hezbollah and Iran.

Posted by john">john 2006-07-14 09:37|| 2006-07-14 09:37|| Front Page Top

#16 Syria already has plenty of missiles and chemical agent. Saddam's stockpiles and Iranian tech would have helped but were not necessary.
Missile Link 1
Missile Link 2
Missile Link 3
CW Link

I did a back of the envelope calculation a few years ago that under ideal conditions (90% launch and detonation rate, low winds, inversion layer over all targets, no warning launch) the Syrians could kill 500,000 Israelis with their CW and missile arsenals. This is not a trivial threat.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-07-14 09:42|| 2006-07-14 09:42|| Front Page Top

#17 "Operation Such A Pinch"

Posted by mojo">mojo 2006-07-14 10:40|| 2006-07-14 10:40|| Front Page Top

#18 Interesting links, 11A5S. I note that the high voltage substation is vulnerable, which if even damaged should make life inside the bunkers highly interesting, however briefly.

Posted by trailing wife 2006-07-14 11:17|| 2006-07-14 11:17|| Front Page Top

#19 Here are a few tactical questions for all.

What anti missle defense does the IDF have - Phalanx CIWS, Patriot, Arrow ???? Help me with the names and spellings.

Are any or all of these available or in use? Going from a mortar round up to an ICBM, which of these work against which threat, and how well?

Are any of these of any use?

Given the strategic analyses, or at least the regional views expressed here, how can the IDF push its defenses out along with the offensive actions underway?

Comments appreciated.

Posted by Chaitch Fliter3582 2006-07-14 11:58|| 2006-07-14 11:58|| Front Page Top

#20 One thing to consider when thinking about these things, TW, is target effects. The Army has a whole set of doctrinal terminology to describe this: supress, neutralize, destroy, etc. While taking out the substation throws a spanner in the works of the chemical program, it doesn't degrade the overall program much. If our efforts with SCUD hunting during the Kuwait war are a benchmark, Israel would probably be lucky to degrade Syria's overall retaliatory capability 10-20% with a first strike.

The chemical retaliatory arsenal is good insurance for Syria since if Israel attacks Syria, Syria can retaliate against Israel's civilian population which forces Israel to go nuclear. This is the end state that Iran is aiming for both with respect to us and with respect to Israel.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-07-14 12:09|| 2006-07-14 12:09|| Front Page Top

#21 If our efforts with SCUD hunting during the Kuwait war are a benchmark, Israel would probably be lucky to degrade Syria's overall retaliatory capability 10-20% with a first strike.

Key for the IDF would be to cut off the head of the snake, ie, take out the leadership (Command & Control - C2) in first strike(s). Except for it's dealings with the paleos, the IDF has never been much for the "long game."

Posted by Besoeker 2006-07-14 12:21|| 2006-07-14 12:21|| Front Page Top

#22 Israeli missile program here; a few quotes:

12 October 2005
IDF deploys a sophisticated new radar system near the Gaza Strip, which it hopes will give early warning to Israeli residents of incoming Katyusha missiles, Kassam rockets and possibly mortar rounds. The system is the prototype for a state-of-the-art wider missile defense system the Nautilus also known by the acronym THEL for Theatre High- Energy Laser, which has been in joint development by Israel and the United States for almost a decade and is ultimately intended to be able to intercept such incoming fire with a high-energy laser beam.

2 December 2005
The Israeli Air Force successfully tests the Arrow 2 anti-ballistic missile system against a Black Sparrow test missile. The Black Sparrow was designed to simulate the Iranian Shahab-3 missile.

2 March 2006
A high-ranking Israeli Defense Force official states that the Arrow 2 anti-ballistic missile system is capable of intercepting and destroying Iranian missiles carrying nuclear warheads. The official went on to explain that new developments in the Arrow system have made it possible to detect missiles carrying a split warhead armed with decoys. He also asserted that any "incoming missile would be destroyed at such a high altitude that it would disperse and destroy its payload without causing any casualties."

17 March 2006
In order to improve its missile defense capabilities the Israeli Air Force (IAF) is working to upgrade its MIM-104 Patriot low- to high-altitude air-defense system to the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) system. According to a senior defense source, "The PAC-3 will complement our layered missile defense structure and will enable us to close a gap in our ability to intercept incoming missiles in the lower tier. It will also substantially increase our capabilities to intercept incoming cruise missiles and aircraft." One of Israel's primary motivations for upgrading to the PAC-3 system is the emerging cruise missile threat in the region, especially with allegations that Iran recently obtained the Russian designed Kh-55 (AS-15, 'Kent') cruise missiles which have a range of up to 3,000km.

14 April 2006
Arrow anti-ballistic missile batteries in Israel are upgraded to enable them to intercept Iran's long-range missiles. This upgrade has been carried out in the event that Tehran should decide to attack Israel as a response to a U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel estimates that Iran already has the capability of attacking Israel with accurate long-range missiles.

Posted by Steve">Steve 2006-07-14 12:55|| 2006-07-14 12:55|| Front Page Top

#23 (i) Iran's involvement. In my view there's an aspect you'll missing. Right now, Ahmi is getting a message "Nobody is going to hunt for your hidden nuke labs, buba, we'll [1] just bomb you into stone age."
(ii) The best defense against WMD's is the certainty of retaliation---disproportionate one, to use our Tranzi friends favorite term.

[1] To Ahmi & Co. Israel/USA is the same thing.

Posted by gromgoru 2006-07-14 14:04|| 2006-07-14 14:04|| Front Page Top

#24 Saddam transporting his CB arsenal to Becca was due to necessity, where Syria's existing stockpile doesn't really factor.

I don't envision Israel conducting a troop incursion into Syria (if it comes to that), but air power and SF lazer tag

Posted by Captain America 2006-07-14 15:36|| 2006-07-14 15:36|| Front Page Top

#25 Unfortunately I see Israel as REACTING and not CONTROLING the scenario. They need to rewrite the script.

Posted by 3dc 2006-07-14 20:07|| 2006-07-14 20:07|| Front Page Top

#26 AHMEN, 3dc.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2006-07-14 20:14|| 2006-07-14 20:14|| Front Page Top

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