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2006-10-09 China-Japan-Koreas
US detects second N Korea 'blast'
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Posted by Steve White 2006-10-09 14:12|| || Front Page|| [10 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Building one for an artillery shell? Doubtful.
Posted by Shipman 2006-10-09 14:28||   2006-10-09 14:28|| Front Page Top

#2 I agree -- first you learn to builid massive, bulky ones, then you learn how to build ones with a really big kaboom, then you learn how to build ones small enough for a missile or an artillery tube.
Posted by Steve White">Steve White  2006-10-09 14:36||   2006-10-09 14:36|| Front Page Top

#3 Working on a suicide belt nuc?
Posted by BrerRabbit 2006-10-09 14:36||   2006-10-09 14:36|| Front Page Top

#4 That's why it's called a "test", not a "demonstration". It's a fissile fizzle.
Posted by Darrell 2006-10-09 14:42||   2006-10-09 14:42|| Front Page Top

#5 They're developing a suitcase nuke.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-10-09 14:47||   2006-10-09 14:47|| Front Page Top

#6 They're not that smart and that's not the engineering they bought.
Posted by Darrell 2006-10-09 14:52||   2006-10-09 14:52|| Front Page Top

#7 Given the Nkors's lack of technical prowess it's likely to be more like an 18-wheeler nuke.
Posted by Jonathan">Jonathan  2006-10-09 14:52||   2006-10-09 14:52|| Front Page Top

#8 Two chariots?
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-10-09 14:53||   2006-10-09 14:53|| Front Page Top

#9 So, they've pretty much tested two dirty bombs in their own coal mines. Nice. Did that AQ Khan Learner's Manual come with a money back guarantee?
Posted by Laurence of the Rats">Laurence of the Rats  2006-10-09 14:59||   2006-10-09 14:59|| Front Page Top

#10 This is very promising news. Like I posted last night:

If Kim has any brains, he built a couple of these sick puppies and should bang off another one in rapid succession to prove he's got some real nuclear firepower.

Otherwise, all he's done is drop his drawers in full view of the world.
Posted by Zenster 2006-10-09 04:25

If this second detonation is indeed nuclear and also of even lower yield, Kim has really screwed the pooch big time. His technology does not work and he has advertised it for all to see. To have impressively demonstrated nuclear capability, he needed something at least on a par with our attacks upon Japan. He is far from that. That pooch is going to have a sore ass in the morning.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 15:08||   2006-10-09 15:08|| Front Page Top

#11 They will be back in a few months with an improved bomb design and again a few months after that. The plutonium comes from a 20MW graphite reactor at Yongbyon. They have almost completed building a 200MW there and are building an 800MW graphite reactor elsewhere.
Posted by ed 2006-10-09 15:18||   2006-10-09 15:18|| Front Page Top

#12 So, we need to bomb those new reactors, right Ed?
Posted by JAB 2006-10-09 15:33||   2006-10-09 15:33|| Front Page Top

#13 The instruction manuals are in Urdu. Just some translation tweaks they are working on.
Posted by Thoth 2006-10-09 15:40||   2006-10-09 15:40|| Front Page Top

#14 You know, I wonder if the scientists just packed two caves with explosives and then claimed to Kim that the tests were "successful" since they don't have access to the toys that make nukes work.

Just wonderin'.....
Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader  2006-10-09 15:44||   2006-10-09 15:44|| Front Page Top

#15 Actually not. I look at the NK nuclear program as the Kim Family insurance policy. If they sell a nuke and it goes off over a US city, then it will be traced to NK and it's the end of the Kim lineage and much of NK. No percentage in it for the Kim's

Instead it will be used to reduce the army to a more loyal core, ensure any large scale revolt (including the army) can be met with devastation. Secondarily, it will be used used to blackmail countries and the designs will be sold to anyone who doesn't already have the Chinese-Pakistani designs.
Posted by ed 2006-10-09 15:49||   2006-10-09 15:49|| Front Page Top

#16 You know, I wonder if the scientists just packed two caves with explosives and then claimed to Kim that the tests were "successful" since they don't have access to the toys that make nukes work.

Darth, there is a vast difference between the seismological trace of a nuclear blast and that of conventional explosives. There is no known method of mimicking an atomic explosion.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 15:53||   2006-10-09 15:53|| Front Page Top

#17 What is funny about this is that the Chinese over the past 15 or so years have been making noises about how much of Korea actually belongs to China because of an old Chinese-led kingdom there. I wonder if Bejing is devious enough to let Kimmie piss off the whole world with his little nuke test and then invade to "preserve the world order". It would be hard for anyone to object to the Chinese taking out Kimmie and his boys, especially if the Chinese "leak" materials indicating that Kimmie was talking about selling these new toyz to various terrorist groups. And once hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops are manning the DMZ with South Korea, who thinks the Chinese could be forced to give up their new territory?
Posted by Shieldwolf 2006-10-09 16:00||   2006-10-09 16:00|| Front Page Top

#18 Shieldwolf: That's actually a very good point. On top of that if it were to happen then the whole North/South thing would be over. We could actually LEAVE South Korea.
Posted by Charles 2006-10-09 16:05||   2006-10-09 16:05|| Front Page Top

#19 We would probably have to pry North Korea out of China's cold dead hands. Which is why we just need to bomb the crap out of it right now while they still don't have any functional nuclear weapons.

I'm sure that, somewhere in the Politburo, there are "ancient" maps showing how everything short of Long Island was once Chinese "territory".
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 16:07||   2006-10-09 16:07|| Front Page Top

#20 There is no known method of mimicking an atomic explosion.

I know. But it would have been funny.
Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader  2006-10-09 16:10||   2006-10-09 16:10|| Front Page Top

#21 Likely the Chinese would invade and establish a 'new government' (Chinese, but with a Korean face). The new government would petition aid from the international community. China gets territory and resources, somebody else pays for reconstruction, and SKor would go on its merry way.

Perhaps that is another reason why Kim wants a nuke.
Posted by Pappy 2006-10-09 16:12||   2006-10-09 16:12|| Front Page Top

#22 Has there been any official confirmation that this WAS a nuclear blast? I've been online only briefly, on and off today. But so far I haven't seen any ... link to one would be appreciated if it exists.
Posted by lotp 2006-10-09 16:12||   2006-10-09 16:12|| Front Page Top

#23 There is no known method of mimicking an atomic explosion.

The 100 Ton Test http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Tests/Trinity.html
probably came close to mimicking one. Excuse me for being new to this, but as this was all done underground couldn't something like the 100 Ton Test, or something more modern, be used to produce results similar to the real thing?

Not that I really doubt that they were indeed nukes.
Posted by JonC 2006-10-09 16:15||   2006-10-09 16:15|| Front Page Top

#24 Excerpt from the mostly David Frum-written SOTU Address, January 29, 2002:

"Our second goal is to prevent regimes that sponsor terror from threatening America or our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction. Some of these regimes have been pretty quiet since September the 11th. But we know their true nature. North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.

Iran aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom.

Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. The Iraqi regime has plotted to develop anthrax, and nerve gas, and nuclear weapons for over a decade. This is a regime that has already used poison gas to murder thousands of its own citizens -- leaving the bodies of mothers huddled over their dead children. This is a regime that agreed to international inspections -- then kicked out the inspectors. This is a regime that has something to hide from the civilized world.

States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States. In any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic.

We will work closely with our coalition to deny terrorists and their state sponsors the materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction. We will develop and deploy effective missile defenses to protect America and our allies from sudden attack. (Applause.) And all nations should know: America will do what is necessary to ensure our nation's security.

We'll be deliberate, yet time is not on our side. I will not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons."


These words and their bold call for specific actions seem like a distant era ago. Thank you liberals, leftists, moral and cultural relativists, and assorted anti-American Americans!
Posted by Lancasters Over Dresden 2006-10-09 16:18|| http://www.michaelcalderonscall.com/HomePage.asp]">[http://www.michaelcalderonscall.com/HomePage.asp]  2006-10-09 16:18|| Front Page Top

#25  as this was all done underground couldn't something like the 100 Ton Test, or something more modern, be used to produce results similar to the real thing?

Similar in destructive potential or kilo-tonnage yield, but their seismic traces will be entirely different and easily distinguished from each other.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 16:23||   2006-10-09 16:23|| Front Page Top

#26 So I ask again, has there been official acknowledgement that this WAS a nuclear blast? Or are we taking the statement of intent at face value, in order to use it as an opportunity to pull the reins in on Pyongyang, hard???
Posted by lotp 2006-10-09 16:25||   2006-10-09 16:25|| Front Page Top

#27 When the military was thinking about hiding missles deep underground 20-25 years ago, there was a plan to test the effectiveness by simulating a (presumably Soviet) nuclear blast with conventional ANFO explosives. It may have been more than 100 tons - there were different tests, as I recall.

So - not all energy is created equal? Or does the nuke go much faster than RDX? Why isn't 100 megatons of TNT the same as 100 megatons of nuke?

Yeah, O.K., but 20 kilotons might be possible.
Posted by Bobby 2006-10-09 16:29||   2006-10-09 16:29|| Front Page Top

#28 Some expert was on NPR this afternoon talking about exactly that. He said it's awfully difficult for newbies to make nuclear weapons as small as the these explosions seem to be, and it was his theory that the North Koreans soaked 500 whatsis of fertilizer in fuel oil and set it off, to mimic a small nuke. Wouldn't it be fun to announce that that was what happened after all. Not even a nuke test that fizzled, but Mr. Kim Jong Il banging his spoon on the high chair again.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-10-09 16:31||   2006-10-09 16:31|| Front Page Top

#29 Okay, John Howard has referred to this as a nuclear test. Not conclusive, but strongly suggestive.
Posted by lotp 2006-10-09 16:34||   2006-10-09 16:34|| Front Page Top

#30 lotp, NK says it was a nuke (in typically creepy, Stalinist cant):
The field of scientific research in the DPRK successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006, at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.

It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation.
Or did you mean "official acknowledgement" from someone we can trust?
Posted by exJAG 2006-10-09 16:42||   2006-10-09 16:42|| Front Page Top

#31 TW, I thought the same thing, re small is technically difficult.

Also, if the first bomb was 10 ton as others here concluded, then that would would destroy just a few city blocks. Meaningless as a threat when retaliation would be megaton city killers.

Note, small yield doesn't equate to physically small bomb.
Posted by phil_b 2006-10-09 16:45||   2006-10-09 16:45|| Front Page Top

#32 The field of scientific research in the DPRK successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006,

Wait, is it the 10th there right now? Was it the 9th there when we picked up on the news of it last night?
Posted by Thoth 2006-10-09 16:46||   2006-10-09 16:46|| Front Page Top

#33 Why isn't 100 megatons of TNT the same as 100 megatons of nuke?

Time to completion for the detonation. Nuclear explosions are almost instantaneous. Huge conventional explosives exhibit much lengthier (tenths of seconds versus milliseconds) ignition rates.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 16:50||   2006-10-09 16:50|| Front Page Top

#34 at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward

And we all know how well that great leap forward went for communist China.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 16:53||   2006-10-09 16:53|| Front Page Top

#35 Or did you mean "official acknowledgement" from someone we can trust?

Yes.

I wouldn't be surprised if they set off a real fission device. Small yield isn't the same thing as small form factor though: low yield isn't hard, but putting it into a small package for delivery is.
Posted by lotp 2006-10-09 16:54||   2006-10-09 16:54|| Front Page Top

#36 Hey Zen, can you read seismic graphs? Two spikes, second larger than the first. Even if the ground is collapsing it shouldn't be a bigger event than the first, right?

Duel detonation?

Seismic chart
Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader  2006-10-09 16:55||   2006-10-09 16:55|| Front Page Top

#37 Duel detonation?

More likely the lensing explosion followed by the actual nuclear detonation. Notice how the second spike goes off of the chart? Just a guess until I see the true ratio between those two events.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 17:00||   2006-10-09 17:00|| Front Page Top

#38 Would that make it an actual Fusion device ?
Posted by J.D. Lux 2006-10-09 17:01||   2006-10-09 17:01|| Front Page Top

#39 Would that make it an actual Fusion device ?

Probably not. H-bomb technology is far more difficult to master than simple fission. Ordinary atomic (versus thermonuclear) bombs still require high explosive lensing charges to compress the shaped fissile components into a critical mass.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 17:07||   2006-10-09 17:07|| Front Page Top

#40 More likely the lensing explosion followed by the actual nuclear detonation

Nah! First spike is the biggest - sharp and clear cut. Second is more diffuse. I'd say second is cavern collapse or similar.
Posted by phil_b 2006-10-09 17:11||   2006-10-09 17:11|| Front Page Top

#41 Whoa! Look at that chart: the two peaks are almost a minute apart, not hundreds of microseconds apart.

Posted by Dave D.">Dave D.  2006-10-09 17:19||   2006-10-09 17:19|| Front Page Top

#42 Wouldn't the cavern collapse be a much longer duration event? It should take more than a few seconds to do so. Even at ten minutes between time divisions on the linked graph, the second spike is still of relatively brief duration.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 17:20||   2006-10-09 17:20|| Front Page Top

#43 maybe they blew the tunnel entrance before the test ?
Posted by J.D. Lux 2006-10-09 17:22||   2006-10-09 17:22|| Front Page Top

#44 Good point, David D.. I hadn't taken a close look at the time until just now. Perhaps phil_b is right. Still, it's hard to believe that the cavern collapse is of such significantly greater magnitude than the nuclear event itself, or that it is so sharp.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 17:23||   2006-10-09 17:23|| Front Page Top

#45 Very good guess, J.D. Lux. Although that might compromise any direct wiring to the bomb or peripheral sensors. I hope someone with more knowledge checks in. This is really interesting to learn about.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 17:25||   2006-10-09 17:25|| Front Page Top

#46 Also, as I said in the other thread, I've *NEVER* heard of this "double pulse" or "double peak" stuff in connection with any seismic signature of a nuclear blast-- only in connection with the light output from the blast (provided it's above ground, of course).

Can you point me to any sources of info on this "double peak" characteristic of the seismic signature? So far I've only been reading in the Nuclear Weapons FAQ, and I'd like more material.

Posted by Dave D.">Dave D.  2006-10-09 17:28||   2006-10-09 17:28|| Front Page Top

#47 The second spike was caused by Kimmie stomping because the splosion was not as spectacular as expected.
Posted by twobyfour 2006-10-09 17:28||   2006-10-09 17:28|| Front Page Top

#48 Re the cavern collapse, I recall reading it typically takes place over the course of many minutes to several hours.
Posted by Dave D.">Dave D.  2006-10-09 17:29||   2006-10-09 17:29|| Front Page Top

#49 That makes a lot more sense to me, David D.. It should exhibit a protracted "rumble" not a "snap".
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 17:36||   2006-10-09 17:36|| Front Page Top

#50 Here is the section of the Nuclear Weapons FAQ dealing with the "double pulse" characteristic of the light emissions from a nuclear blast. Scroll down to section 5.3.1.2, "Blast Wave Development and Thermal Radiation Emission".

Can you point me to any documentation about anything similar (or similarly unique) in the seismic signature? I've never heard of such a thing, and I want to do some reading...

Posted by Dave D.">Dave D.  2006-10-09 17:45||   2006-10-09 17:45|| Front Page Top

#51 I retract what I said. I missed the second narrow spike that covers the background vertical axis.

Note that different seismic waves propagate at different speeds and what we see on the seimograph may not faithfully represent the actual sequence of events.
Posted by phil_b 2006-10-09 17:52||   2006-10-09 17:52|| Front Page Top

#52 Hre's an article that specifically mentions a seismic "double pulse" in realation to nuclear tests.
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6391
Posted by J.D. Lux 2006-10-09 17:52||   2006-10-09 17:52|| Front Page Top

#53 f&&&&&

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6391
Posted by J.D. Lux 2006-10-09 17:54||   2006-10-09 17:54|| Front Page Top

#54 
Posted by john 2006-10-09 17:55||   2006-10-09 17:55|| Front Page Top

#55 Are there any other sources listing this second blast? So far this one seems to be the only onesaying it.
Posted by Thoth 2006-10-09 17:58||   2006-10-09 17:58|| Front Page Top

#56 Estimating the yield is tricky business, because it depends on the geology of the test site. The South Koreans called the yield half a kiloton (550 tons), which is more or less—a factor of two—consistent with the relationship for tests in that yield range at the Soviet Shagan test site:
Mb = 4.262 + .973LogW

Problem is the NoKO site hasn't been calibrated, so estimates are just that - with huge errors

This is from R. Chindambaram

the strength of the seismic signal is determined by the way the explosive energy couples into the geological medium, and there are strong regional differences. In fact, each seismic station has to be calibrated, and this is obvious from the range of seismic magnitudes reported by various global seismic stations. A small difference in body wave magnitude of a little over 0.2 corresponds to a halving of the yield estimate. And for any underground nuclear explosion, seismic body wave magnitudes are known to range over 1.0 or even more, which indicates the pitfalls in yield estimates from seismic signals, unless they are done carefully and correctly.
Posted by john 2006-10-09 17:58||   2006-10-09 17:58|| Front Page Top

#57 More fuel for the fire.

PakLand nuke test

Indian Nuke test

Both look a lot different that what the Nork one does.
(Scroll down to fig 2.)
Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader  2006-10-09 17:58||   2006-10-09 17:58|| Front Page Top

#58 That www.newscientist.com article was talking about an ABOVE-ground explosion, and I think the reporter is actually confusing the optical vs. seismic characteristic. The optical effect is very real, and is well-known. But I have NEVER heard of anything similar seismically.

Something authoritative anywhere?

Posted by Dave D.">Dave D.  2006-10-09 18:03||   2006-10-09 18:03|| Front Page Top

#59 Here's a great site for P and S wave formation data.

http://www.llnl.gov/str/Walter.html
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 18:05||   2006-10-09 18:05|| Front Page Top

#60 Zen, what I get from that article is that seismic waves produced by an explosion (nuclear or otherwise) are easily distinguishable from earthquakes (which makes sense); but I don't see anything about any sort of "double pulse" characteristic that would enable nuclear explosions to be seismically differentiable from similar-size conventional explosions.

Then again, maybe I'm reading it wrong; it's late, and I'm tired...

Posted by Dave D.">Dave D.  2006-10-09 18:10||   2006-10-09 18:10|| Front Page Top

#61 No chance at all that the PAL is testing? This is the blast size of enhanced radiation devices for shells. Doubtful. But the PAL was behind the curve on this stuff.
Posted by Shipman 2006-10-09 18:13||   2006-10-09 18:13|| Front Page Top

#62 I've not seen a single thing about any "double pulse" at sites dealing with seismic monitoring, David D.. Must be something to do with air bursts or whatever.
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-10-09 18:23||   2006-10-09 18:23|| Front Page Top

#63 OK, thanks.
Posted by Dave D.">Dave D.  2006-10-09 18:35||   2006-10-09 18:35|| Front Page Top

#64 re 'mimicking' nuclear explosion with conventional explosives:
Conventional explosives, CONVENTIONALLY FUSED, will take a lot longer to generate their bang than a nuclear detonation of the same yield, and would have a lot different seismic response (though I don't know the details). However, it does strike me that the same kind of extremely detailed charge shaping and fuse timing that makes possible the explosive 'lensing' that is essential to implosion-type fission devices (Trinity design, for instance) could be used to simultaneously detonate many small charges to sharpen the seismic response frequency. Why one would bother is beyond me - technologically that issue is the toughest thing about building an implosion device. (The gun-barrel design used for the Hiroshima blast is far simpler, to the point that it was never even tested before use, but you can't really scale it down very well, or increase the yield per unit fuel very much.)
Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore  2006-10-09 19:30||   2006-10-09 19:30|| Front Page Top

#65 J. D. Lux:

That was talking about an aboveground nuclear explosion, so it's hard to tell what exactly they were looking for.
Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2006-10-09 21:27||   2006-10-09 21:27|| Front Page Top

#66 This may have nothing to do with it, but you can mask the seismic signature of a nuclear blast underground by a factor of 70 or so by lighting it off in an underground cavity. If Kimmie was going for yield, he would want to crow about it, so he would want a righteous sized seismic signature.
Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul  2006-10-09 22:02||   2006-10-09 22:02|| Front Page Top

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