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2006-11-01 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iran to hold *counter* military exercises next to US manoeuvres
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Posted by RD 2006-11-01 07:21|| || Front Page|| [10 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Will the Iranians provoke an incident...stay tuned!

TEHRAN November 1, (RIA Novosti) - Iran's army will conduct practice launches of long-range ballistic missiles during large-scale military exercises starting Thursday, the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps said Wednesday.

General Yahya Rahim-Safavi said the exercises will take place November 2-12 in southern Iran, and involve units of ground forces, the air force, the navy, and Basij (militia) forces.
~~~~~
Xinhua, The Peoples Daily Iran to start "extensive" military maneuvers in the Gulf on Thursday.

On Sunday, the U.S. navy said that vessels from the United States, Britain, France, Italy, Australia and Bahrain began a naval training exercise off the Iranian coast in the Gulf aimed at blocking smuggling of nuclear weapons and arms proliferation.

Iran will not bothered about the military maneuvers because the country "is powerful in all fields," the official IRNA news agency quoted Elham as saying.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran will not accept threats. Iran is a strong and powerful state and will not take maneuvers as a threat," he said.
Posted by RD 2006-11-01 10:13||   2006-11-01 10:13|| Front Page Top

#2 ...Man, the LAST time the Iranians got froggy with us in the Gulf, we cleaned their clocks. Apprently there's zero corporate knowledge up there at Tight Turban Central...

Mike
Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2006-11-01 10:15||   2006-11-01 10:15|| Front Page Top

#3 And German naval vessels are on interdiction patrol off the cost of Lebanon.
Posted by mrp 2006-11-01 10:24||   2006-11-01 10:24|| Front Page Top

#4 What's their ROE, mrp? Shoot off the scallywag's rudders or café und schnitzel served promptly at 3:00?

Just askin...
Posted by .com 2006-11-01 10:46||   2006-11-01 10:46|| Front Page Top

#5 Dunno, .com. There was an article posted earlier stating that the Germans couldn't patrol within 12 (I think) miles of the Lebanese coast without Lebanon's permission.

A brief DW background article on the mission here.
Posted by mrp 2006-11-01 11:02||   2006-11-01 11:02|| Front Page Top

#6 There's two sets of Germans, in essence. One with Unifil and one with the German troops. The one's the Israelis buzzed was apparently an intelligence gathering ship in support of German troops. Sort of a German Liberty. They've probably got different ROE depending on which force they're with, including rights to cruise in Lebanese waters.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-11-01 11:06||   2006-11-01 11:06|| Front Page Top

#7 I asked TGA, once upon a time, about this if Iran were blockaded. He had suggested that Germany would likely participate if the blockade was the result of a UNSC resolution, IIRC. And I asked him if Germany would be willing to actually disable, i.e. shoot off the rudder, of a ship running the blockade. He did not have an answer to that and I took it to mean that Germany is still wrestling within regards force and power. I appreciate that they have taken the issues of aggression and anti-Semitism to heart, no one else has ever done as much to atone for past actions, but it has left them in a quandary to find their balance that remains unresolved 60 years on.
Posted by .com 2006-11-01 11:22||   2006-11-01 11:22|| Front Page Top

#8 .com

I look at an 8-ship committment as a pretty serious deployment. And with a contingent of 1000 German marines, that looks to me like prep for a possible shooting campaign. Everyone in that area seems to be set for a major balloon lift.
Posted by mrp 2006-11-01 13:04||   2006-11-01 13:04|| Front Page Top

#9 What difference would a military inclined Germany make? Not much in the overall scheme of things. But the German infrastructure and logistical support would be appreciated to any active response in the area. I would prefer France, Germany and Spanish moral support (I like to dream big) than their basically uneffective and degraded military. As my Belgian brother in law likes to say about NATO - Nato is the US.
Posted by Jack is Back!">Jack is Back!  2006-11-01 13:10||   2006-11-01 13:10|| Front Page Top

#10 Paraphrasing someone else hereabouts, what good is it if you aren't willing to use it? Time will tell, as always.

As I said, TGA chose not to respond.

Gawd I miss that guy. Sigh.
Posted by .com 2006-11-01 13:14||   2006-11-01 13:14|| Front Page Top

#11 The Guards' speciality is small boats that blow up. This is a more worrisome Navy than China of the old Soviets. Harder to keep track of little boats in a sea full of little boats.
Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins  2006-11-01 14:23|| http://northshorejournal.org]">[http://northshorejournal.org]  2006-11-01 14:23|| Front Page Top

#12 Mmmm, war games. Are the Iranians offering to play OPFOR?
Posted by SteveS 2006-11-01 14:50||   2006-11-01 14:50|| Front Page Top

#13 It amuses me. They keep saying they want us out, and then do things that keep us there. When is the Muslim street going to realize this?
Posted by plainslow 2006-11-01 15:19||   2006-11-01 15:19|| Front Page Top

#14 Actually, with the Marines using SuperCobras and Apaches, and the coverage from the Hawkeyes, the light suicide boats are not that big of a concern anymore. Also, remember that we have Coast Guard cutters in the area because of the new Customs inspection agreement; some of the newer Coast Guard cutters are pretty impressive light warships.
Posted by Shieldwolf 2006-11-01 17:26||   2006-11-01 17:26|| Front Page Top

#15  Just what are the rules for a simultaneous exercise by non invited nations? I mean how close can they get to each other? Too close and the enemy will penetrate umbrella coverage between groups or god forbid, individual ships! Do we still have a "Don't fire, till you see the whites of their eyes" rule?
Posted by smn 2006-11-01 19:17||   2006-11-01 19:17|| Front Page Top

#16 Nope, there is a set distance that foreign naval vessels can come to from a carrier battle group. That distance tends to expand and contract based on known threat level of the foreign navy.
Posted by Shieldwolf 2006-11-01 20:15||   2006-11-01 20:15|| Front Page Top

#17 guarantee that level extends to Iran's 12 mile limit, just to piss them off :-)
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-11-01 20:20||   2006-11-01 20:20|| Front Page Top

#18 To, or within?
Posted by trailing wife 2006-11-01 20:36||   2006-11-01 20:36|| Front Page Top

#19 whatever it takes to push the MM's and IRG to respond with the provacation
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-11-01 20:39||   2006-11-01 20:39|| Front Page Top

#20 On Sunday, the U.S. navy said that vessels from the United States, Britain, France, Italy, Australia and Bahrain began a naval training exercise off the Iranian coast in the Gulf aimed at blocking smuggling of nuclear weapons and arms proliferation.

"This calls for a really stupid, and yet futile gesture."
Posted by Otter Aminejihad 2006-11-01 21:08||   2006-11-01 21:08|| Front Page Top

#21 It amuses me. They keep saying they want us out, and then do things that keep us there. When is the Muslim street going to realize this?

This reminds very little of the old Vaudeville act where a young maiden is being somewhat roughly introduced to the finer points of lovemaking while she exclaims;

"Don't! ... Stop! Don't .. Stop! Don't . Stop! Don't stop! Don't stop!!!
Posted by Zenster">Zenster  2006-11-01 21:28||   2006-11-01 21:28|| Front Page Top

#22 Operation "Hidden Imam in the Urinal" should also disrupt the Iranian state broadcasting with our war exercise videos - just to let the people know we're there
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-11-01 21:35||   2006-11-01 21:35|| Front Page Top

#23 Notes for an analysis: Provoking Iran

-provocation against Iran, as pretext for mass destruction.

-explicit discussion of fabricating/creating a provocation

-discussion of Germany's U.N. role in the region and as a world power

-discussion of the options using some military terms

-ease and comfort amongst commenters

---

May good judgment rule. Contrary to the tendencies above, I wish for no provocation in the region but rather the U.S.'s acceptance of Iran's developing a nuclear program under the auspices of the IAEA. Hard, tough, negotiating but no more. Even manoeuvres. But. No. More.

With the resolve of a leader of the free world. Rather than the leader of a very different world.
Posted by HighVoltage 2006-11-01 21:45||   2006-11-01 21:45|| Front Page Top

#24 HighVoltage, I do believe you've fried your brain.
Posted by Darrell 2006-11-01 21:48||   2006-11-01 21:48|| Front Page Top

#25 Were Iran a remotely civilized, trustworthy nation, I'm sure we'd all agree with HighVoltage's vision... after all, we accept a nuclear armed France without a quibble. However, Iran's leadership awaits an imminent Shiite Armaggedon led by a decendent of their Prophet who has spent the past millenium at the bottom of a well. You'll understand why we're a bit uncomfortable about said Iranian leadership's ability to analyze the situation realitically.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-11-01 21:55||   2006-11-01 21:55|| Front Page Top

#26 I'd say you're right on the money, Darrell.

Sparky's #23 ranks among the stupidest brain farts I've ever seen. Dhimmitude at its finest.
Posted by .com 2006-11-01 21:57||   2006-11-01 21:57|| Front Page Top

#27 apparently HighVoltage doesn't include neurons firing
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-11-01 22:08||   2006-11-01 22:08|| Front Page Top

#28 Note: Addition

-the tendency to use Ad Hominems

---

trailing wife:

-I think that Iran is not nearly so fearful a nation as your colourful description would have it - the people, or the leadership, or even the structure of governance for that matter (where the President has not nearly so much authority as the U.S. President).

-They really are not a bunch of crazies. They are tough, hard minded and rational. Even in Iran, politicians play politics when appealing to an electorate.

-That this nation could seriously be regarded as somehow outside of rational, pragmatic relations because of political and religious beliefs baffles.Why? America is regarded as a rational player despite the influence of religious beliefs on U.S. foreign policy. It actually has the nuclear weapons.

So, like, what's the fear factor here? What is being feared?
Posted by HighVoltage 2006-11-01 22:10||   2006-11-01 22:10|| Front Page Top

#29 feared? I detect several sneers and ridicule. Little fear
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-11-01 22:11||   2006-11-01 22:11|| Front Page Top

#30 And your expertise in this matter is what, Mr. HighVoltage? You've been here before, and never yet explained why we should value your opinion over the information collected directly from the words and actions of the parties we hold in such low esteem.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-11-01 22:15||   2006-11-01 22:15|| Front Page Top

#31 Hmmmmmmm...my recommendation to HighVoltage would be to throw a few more hamsters on the treadmill. Trust me on this...
Posted by tu3031 2006-11-01 22:22||   2006-11-01 22:22|| Front Page Top

#32 What is being feared is a country that seized our embassy, held embassy workers hostage for over a year, calls us "The Great Satan" (for over a quarter of a century), materially supports terrorism worldwide, denies the Holocaust, ran a clandestine nuclear program for a long time in defiance of its treaty obligations, claims "peaceful" nuclear plans even though putting its facilities into hidden and hardened underground locations, is building longer range missiles regularly, threatens Israel's right to exist, and operates on homicidal religious fervor rather than logic. Aside from that, they suppress women, suppress free speech, censor media, and do generally despicable things like using children to clear mine fields. Nitwit.
Posted by Darrell 2006-11-01 22:23||   2006-11-01 22:23|| Front Page Top

#33 Sparky's #23 ranks among the stupidest brain farts I've ever seen. Dhimmitude at its finest.

lotp, does the above qualify as a well thought-out argument? just wonderin'

You've been here before, and never yet explained why we should value your opinion...

And we should value YOUR opinion because....???
Posted by Shath Hupumble6441 2006-11-01 23:26||   2006-11-01 23:26|| Front Page Top

12:45 bk
23:53 Hyper
23:48 Hyper
23:37 Zenster
23:26 Zenster
23:26 Shath Hupumble6441
23:24 Grunter
23:20 Zenster
23:11 .com
23:08 Old Patriot
23:06 Jan
23:04 mcsegeek1
23:01 Pappy
22:54 FOTSGreg
22:53 Frank G
22:53 OldSpook
22:48 DanNY
22:45 Mike
22:42 Pappy
22:36 Eric Jablow
22:35 Chineck Snaing5260
22:32 .com
22:29 Frank G
22:26 phil_b









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