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2008-05-27 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

National Academy of Sciences: recent evolution of avian flu increases pandemic risk

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Posted by lotp 2008-05-27 08:49|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 This is an ugly turn of events, but it only came to light because of the H5N1 research. The bottom line is that there are 16 different types of "H" (hemagglutinins) variants, only H1, H2, and H3 currently able to easily infect people. But H5 is stepping up to the plate and H7 is in the batter's box. No surprise if others eventually join in the mix.

Even worse is the "N" (neuraminidase) factor. Right now, only N1 and N2 (plus a few isolated N3 and N7 deaths), have made it into the human species. But there are 137 known varieties of "N", so you known there is a lot of potential here.

Ironically, the "H" factor just means how the virus gets into cells, and the "N" factor just means how after reproducing, they get out again.

Posted by Anonymoose 2008-05-27 09:23|| 2008-05-27 09:23|| Front Page Top

#2 We're GOING to get one of these sooner or later, and probably sooner. If you're not making preparations already, you should start doing so because when it comes the dominoes are going to start falling very quickly. Life is going to get very interesting.

Posted by Thaimble Scourge of the Pixies4707 2008-05-27 17:45|| 2008-05-27 17:45|| Front Page Top

#3 I'm a big advocate of the great question: "And then what happens?"

This is generally how things will go.

1) Town or City "zero" happens. The local authorities will be all over it, and will appear to stop it. Then, just inside of the maximum incubation period, there will be a few outlying cases. After they are taken care of, the assumption will be that it has stopped. Then, at about twice the incubation period, there will be another batch. After that, it explodes.

Critically, you have to assume that it reached your town or city about it week before anyone starts showing symptoms.

2) Right now, you should have about 12 quart sized bottles of hand sanitizer (3 gallons), some 2 oz carry bottles in vehicles, with one carried in purse or pocket. You should also get a few boxes of inexpensive vinyl gloves. None of this will be available in stores after the epidemic breaks. When in public, sanitize hands about six times a day--gloves can be sanitized as well.

3) Try to go to public places, like stores, on off hours, early and late. Avoid people who might be sick without embarrassment. Do not use public restrooms or restaurants.

4) There may be lots of dead birds and animals out in the open, and it is likely both dogs and cats will be affected. A favorite pet can kill you with a kiss, so be careful.

5) Even loved ones may be infected, and this love can kill as well.

6) The epidemic may last from six months to a year. It comes in waves, for unknown reasons, so don't assume if it has passed through, it won't be back.

7) Knowledge about killer flu is limited, and even most doctors have little idea of what to expect. Government response to epidemics is almost universally too late, however. Individuals that know about the epidemic are key to informing the public and government.

Posted by Anonymoose 2008-05-27 20:28|| 2008-05-27 20:28|| Front Page Top

#4 People get infected mostly by touching their own mucous membranes - mouth, nose, eyes.

People do this unconciously all the time. The only way to stop it is to cover your mouth, nose, eyes, i.e. face mask and goggles.

Otherwise wash your hands at every opportunity. Use real soap. It's more effective than sanitizers.

BTW, it will start in some place where government control is weak or goverments like to hide things - Burma, Indonesia, all of Africa, Iran, etc.

One of the first consequences will be a complete shutdown of international travel and most national travel.

Posted by phil_b 2008-05-27 22:06|| 2008-05-27 22:06|| Front Page Top

#5 See GEORGE WILL's commentary on the agenda of the GREEN LEFT vv the State.

ION IPSNEWS > GLOBAL WARMING CASTS MARINE SCIENCES ADRIFT, + TOPIX > GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS MAY LEAD TO WATER RATIONING.

GOOD NEWS - LESS HURICANES
BAD NEWS - ATMOSPHERIC GRAVITY WAVES may lead to STRONGER, MORE POWERFUL TORNADOES + WATER SPOUT STORMS.

Rest assured that Science wants to make it absolutely positively categorically undeniably intrinsically, crystal clear, Nuns-wid-Rulers clear to any and all IT CANNOT CONFIRM OR DENY ANYTHING.

AND KNOWING = NOT KNOWING IS HALF = NOT/ALL THE BATTLE ...................uh, uh, GI JOE????

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-05-27 22:24|| 2008-05-27 22:24|| Front Page Top

23:42 RD
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