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2009-06-17 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Steve White 2009-06-17 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

#1 I don't see how a popular uprising in a place like Iran can triumph. Yet, there have been a few bloodless revolutions when the military and police simply refused to kill their own people en masse. Is this possible in Iran? Probably not.

Posted by Richard of Oregon 2009-06-17 07:09|| 2009-06-17 07:09|| Front Page Top

#2 One of the key elements is that the 'guard dogs' are first generation. First geners can still taste blood and historically don't have the qualms about taking out the 'heretics'.

Posted by Procopius2k 2009-06-17 07:35|| 2009-06-17 07:35|| Front Page Top

#3 Khamenei (Obama, disgustingly and supinely calls him Supreme Leader) has several layers of support in the para military. There is the Revolutionary guard (aka the Basij) and the Special Revolutionary Guard (aka the Pasdaran or IRG or IRGC). Together they probably have a deployable strength of loyal (to Khamenei although they may be more loyal to Ahmadinejad) troops of nearly 1M. The Army has about 800k but is not thought to be loyal to Khamenei.

Interestingly, Khamenei has been thought to have had some serious illnesses in the past few years. If he was to be incapacitated, that would shake things up.

Posted by Lord garth 2009-06-17 11:17|| 2009-06-17 11:17|| Front Page Top

#4 Question: didn't an article posted here a few days ago mention that the Basij Guards included a lot of Arabs? If so, then they'd have no qualms whatever about shooting Iranians, who are not their own people.

Posted by mom">mom 2009-06-17 12:02|| 2009-06-17 12:02|| Front Page Top

#5 I think the Times said the same thing about the Chinese right after Tiananmen Square...

Posted by tu3031 2009-06-17 12:05|| 2009-06-17 12:05|| Front Page Top

#6 The question is:

Will these security forces stay loyal when their relatives start dying then disappearing due to other parts of the security apparatus take then down (cousins, etc).

And will the regular army stand by when the same goes on? With millions protesting, its likely that the "degrees of separation" are shrinking rapidly.

Posted by OldSpook 2009-06-17 13:27|| 2009-06-17 13:27|| Front Page Top

#7 Read an article saying that the military had said they won't be used in putting down the demonstators, but on the other hand the real power is with the Revolutionary Guards backed up by the Basij militia. Think of the RG as something like the SS - both a secret police and a waffen aspect.

Posted by Thor Crolusing5809 2009-06-17 15:02|| 2009-06-17 15:02|| Front Page Top

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