Article

2009-11-19 Economy

Week ending Nov 14, jobless claims unchanged at 505,000

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Posted by Besoeker 2009-11-19 08:34|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top

#1 New jobless benefit claims unchanged at 505K
Even as claims are falling and the economy has started growing, the unemployment rate is continuing to rise. It jumped to 10.2 percent in October from 9.8 percent, the highest level in more than 26 years, the government said earlier this month.
AND
most economists say weekly claims would have to fall to about 425,000 for several weeks to signal that the economy is actually adding jobs.

So if the job loss claims follow trend and lose a net average of 80K/week, that means November's unemployment rate will end at 10.4-10.5%.

Posted by ed 2009-11-19 09:23|| 2009-11-19 09:23|| Front Page Top

#2 note that the 4 week moving average (for initial claims)is still going down

that's the more relevant figure

Posted by lord garth 2009-11-19 09:30|| 2009-11-19 09:30|| Front Page Top

#3 More BS from the wimps. The 10.2% figure is too low by at least 4 percentage points. First, their own estimates use outdated and inaccurate sectoral employment assumptions-- for ex., finance/insurance/real estate (FIRE) jobs have shrunk drastically since last October, yet the BLS is still using pre-10/08 baseline assumptions for FIRE employment. That's undercounting by at least several hundred thousand lost jobs right there.

Second, there are at least a million people who've been out of work for so many months, they've stopped looking. Add a point there to the overall unemployment rate.

Third, plenty of unemployed don't ever apply for benefits-- some are nominally "self-employed", if only to get access to group health insurance, for ex.-- and are likewise off the radar. Add another point.

Fourth, nearly every major corporation now imposes furloughs of up to 20% of pay periods, IOW, many of those with supposedly stable jobs are not fully employed. Cumulatively, that's at least another point, perhaps two.

In reality, the unemployment rate passed 15% many months ago. The stimulus has been a complete joke. The stock market recovery is fueled entirely by the same f***ing cheap money and liquidity bubble that got us into this mess.

But hey, bubbles are fun while they last.

Posted by lex 2009-11-19 10:02|| 2009-11-19 10:02|| Front Page Top

#4 If the economy needed a plane the government would build this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3Lxx2VAYi8

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2009-11-19 11:52|| 2009-11-19 11:52|| Front Page Top

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