Article

2011-02-03 --Tech & Moderator Notes

Egypt expects to up energy subsidies, maintain food subsidies ($10b on fuel in 2009)

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-02-03 18:52|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 Notice that Egypt's food and fuel subsidies are 10x the military aid Uncle Sam provides. These subsidies are the numbers that will make or break Mubarak, not the measly amount of military aid we provide him. What he needs to do is open up* segments of the economy Chinese-style to foreign investments in light industry. There is no reason that clothing currently labeled Made in China or Vietnam should not be assembled in Egypt. Egyptian wages are way lower than China's (min Egyptian wage per month is $6.50, compared to $100 for many Chinese cities), and its close proximity to Western end markets ought to be a real advantage.

* Egypt's ultimate problem, like that of many Third World countries, is that the economy is relatively closed to competition. The real benefit of East Asian-style export-driven growth is political - governments do not have to stage knock-down drag-out fights against the interests representing minuscule but powerful domestic monopolies, since the markets being fought over are not only foreign (i.e. Western), but massive and unregulated (from the standpoint of market shares not being allocated based on political pull, as in most Third World countries).

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-02-03 19:21|| 2011-02-03 19:21|| Front Page Top

#2 "now now - let's not get too far ahead of our Egyptian selves. If they have increased wages, soon they'll want clean water and sewerage systems. Imagine!"

Posted by Frank G 2011-02-03 19:38|| 2011-02-03 19:38|| Front Page Top

#3 After which the masses get the uppity idea that they're smarter than the idiots in the stifling government bureaucracies. Then comes the revolution.

Which is why Hosni won't take Zhang's advice.

Posted by Steve White 2011-02-03 20:46|| 2011-02-03 20:46|| Front Page Top

#4 Hosni is already hosed. If he moves, he will make them too late. Game is all over except for the crying.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2011-02-03 23:17|| 2011-02-03 23:17|| Front Page Top

#5 After which the masses get the uppity idea that they're smarter than the idiots in the stifling government bureaucracies. Then comes the revolution.

Which is why Hosni won't take Zhang's advice.

The Chinese Communist Party seems to have pulled it off without losing power. If the bulk of the population benefits, even if some benefit more than others, there are not enough real hardship cases to form the ranks of people who want to revolt. This is why the Chinese Communist Party is still standing - most people have benefited, such that only a fringe are deprived enough to risk their lives taking on the government.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-02-03 23:56|| 2011-02-03 23:56|| Front Page Top

23:56 Zhang Fei
23:55 JosephMendiola
23:53 JosephMendiola
23:39 JosephMendiola
23:38 JosephMendiola
23:36 JosephMendiola
23:33 JosephMendiola
23:24 OldSpook
23:17 Alaska Paul
23:09 Barbara Skolaut
23:08 Blossom Jutch5669
22:56 Barbara Skolaut
22:45 USN,Ret
22:44 Steven
22:35 Frank G
22:32 SteveS
22:27 Grunter in Sydney
21:56 Richard Aubrey
21:47 Frank G
21:41 tu3031
21:31 Pappy
21:26 Frank G
21:13 tu3031
21:09 Pappy