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2014-08-02 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Ebola: the WHO stats show the real story

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Posted by anon1 2014-08-02 12:19|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 Sorry, those WHO stats can be accessed here

Posted by anon1 2014-08-02 12:34|| 2014-08-02 12:34|| Front Page Top

#2 Saudi Arabia acted fast according to wikipedia here:

From 1 April, Saudi Arabia stopped issuing visas for the Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca to those from Guinea and Liberia.

Posted by anon1 2014-08-02 12:49|| 2014-08-02 12:49|| Front Page Top

#3 looking at the numbers, transmissibility (the average number of people infected by a case) looks to be around 1.5 with the measures in place currently. Down from around 2 previously.

1.5 means it will exponentially spread without further measures, and when it exhausts the limited capacity of the current measures it goes back toward 2.

The question I am asking is, how transmissible is this outside tropical Africa?

Posted by phil_b 2014-08-02 13:45|| 2014-08-02 13:45|| Front Page Top

#4 how transmissible is this outside tropical Africa?

Never lick a gift bat in the mouth.

Posted by SteveS 2014-08-02 14:25|| 2014-08-02 14:25|| Front Page Top

#5 Its driving me crazy that they are bringing patient zero to the US, not really Ebola patient zero, but for the US he will be.
They are bringing the two here because they have an experimental treatment for them. Great! Frigging great! The CDC said there is little to no risk. Yup, little to nor risk, from the folks that sent the active plague FexEx to another facility. I feel safe. They say it is fluid transfer so its really really hard to get. Then they say the two will be brought over in a special aircraft, in a cocoon. Then transferred in a special vehicle to a state of the art infectious disease ward. All this effort for little to no threat. While in Africa the doctors are in MOP3 and go through full decontamination after, oh ya, and they still caught it! So I looked it up, not wiki but med sites. It is transferred by fluids. A good sneeze will get it there. All the typical, blood, semen etc... It is also in waste, urine and feces. It stays alive in these liquids for an extended period of time, not hours or days but weeks. This means everything will need to be incinerated. Urine could contaminate water supplies, Atlanta recycles and processes all waste. Just one of these little bugs is all it takes.
Then comes the gestation period, 21 days before they show symptoms. Within 21 days every infectious disease doctor will have visited, for their research papers. They will board planes, visit girlfriends, wives, family, etc... I'm not being hysterical here, just real. All of this risk so we can do what? Study them? This just is not right.

Posted by 49 Pan 2014-08-02 15:29|| 2014-08-02 15:29|| Front Page Top

#6 Nicely done, anon1. Thank you.

Posted by Steve White 2014-08-02 15:57|| 2014-08-02 15:57|| Front Page Top

#7 I'm not mathematician but extrapolate x4 per month equates to about 5 billion in a year in arithmetic progression. Please tell me I'm wrong.

Posted by BrerRabbit 2014-08-02 17:10|| 2014-08-02 17:10|| Front Page Top

#8 I wonder why only one case (the new case did die) showed up in Nigeria only lately (7-24 to 7-27) whereas the other countries have a fairly large number of new cases. What is it about Nigeria that ebola has been slow to take hold?

Posted by JohnQC 2014-08-02 19:25|| 2014-08-02 19:25|| Front Page Top

#9 Incubation is fairly slow for a virus, up to 3 weeks.

Which makes it particularly hard to contain.

Posted by phil_b 2014-08-02 22:18|| 2014-08-02 22:18|| Front Page Top

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