Article

2019-09-11 Britain

Brexit has its risks. But staying in the EU is now unthinkable

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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-09-11 09:41|| || Front Page|| [11138 views ] Top

#1 Story repeated in many countries, many eras, just different actors.

Posted by Bobby 2019-09-11 10:06|| 2019-09-11 10:06|| Front Page Top

#2 The opportunities of proceeding with Brexit outweigh any risks.

Staying in the decaying EUSSR is a much greater risk.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2019-09-11 10:55|| 2019-09-11 10:55|| Front Page Top

#3 1947

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-09-11 13:29|| 2019-09-11 13:29|| Front Page Top

#4 What No Deal really means:

1) Considerable turbulence on the stock markets, above all a collapse of the Pound. Increase in import prices, annual inflation of up to 5.25%, recession.

2) Border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland becomes the new EU external border. This threatens to undermine the peace that was achieved with the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. One third of Northern Ireland's goods that cross the border face tariffs of 15% or more. In combination with non-tariff barriers to trade, such as checks on compliance with sanitary and hygiene standards, trade could fall by 20%. One in twenty jobs in the region would be threatened.

3) The Irish government assumes that an unregulated Brexit will cost 55,000 jobs in the short term and another 30,000 jobs in the medium term. It expects severe disruptions in Irish-British trade. No-Deal-Brexit will reduce Irish economic performance by 3.3% over five years and by 5% in ten years. Employment falls by 2 to 3.4%.

4) Half of all British goods exports are threatened by delays and price increases. Substantial EU tariffs would mainly apply to car parts and agricultural goods; in addition there would be the necessary checks on compliance with product standards. Emergency planning at ports should mitigate the consequences, but not eliminate them. Some trade agreements with third countries, including Canada, Turkey and Japan, also lose their validity.

5) Some 245,000 small UK companies are currently trading with the EU without having to report it. For No-Deal-Brexit they need an Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number and customs declarations. Only 30% of them have applied for an EORI number. For a no deal Brexit, the number of customs declarations to be processed increases from 55 million annually to 250 million. The UK would need about two years to set up an adequate registration system.

6) The British government has announced that it will almost not impose customs duties on imports from the chaotic Brexit. This will expose British manufacturers to a blow of cheap competition from third countries, which until now have been held back by EU external tariffs.

7) The highly competitive British food trade is based on low margins and low logistics costs. Even small increases in delivery times and costs can have a strong impact. 30% of food consumed in the UK comes from the EU, for example an important proportion of fruit and vegetables come from Spain. Delays at ports would have the greatest effect on perishable goods.

8) The manufacturing industry depends on deliveries in real time and without large stocks. This affects aircraft (parts) and car manufacturers. The automotive industry accounts for 13% of British exports and directly employs 186,000 people. Around 60% of the parts used in a British car are imported from the EU. Another important supplier is Turkey, which is in a customs union with the EU. The British supplier landscape is not large enough to compensate foreign suppliers. Customs duties would make the export of a British car to the EU, the largest sales market in the industry, an average of £2700 more expensive.

9) The government plans to allow many products into the country duty-free in the case of No-Deal-Brexit in order to mitigate price shocks. Conversely, British farmers will not have this advantage when exporting to the EU. The EU accounts for two thirds of British food exports.

10) 40% of British food exports pass through the Dover and Folkestone ports. Deliveries would have to be inspected and tested either at or near the border when entering the EU. Animal feed must be checked for correct labelling. Organic food requires a special import permit. The UK would be excluded from access to the European Food Safety Authority and its rapid alert system for health risks.

11) Great Britain has one of the world's largest pharmaceutical industries. The sector generated sales of £64 billion in 2016 and employed 233 000 people. 48% of exports were exported to the EU in 2015 and 74% of the sector's imports came from there. Here, too, supply chains are highly integrated across countries and do not require long storage periods. According to a government estimate, the No-Deal-Brexit could reduce the gross value added of the sector by more than 20% over 15 years compared to remaining in the EU. Another threat is the possible decoupling from the EU regulatory framework for medicines and medical devices. The UK needed its own authorisation system. The approval burden for companies would double and delays would weaken the attractiveness of the location.

13) The British chemicals sector supplies 60% of its goods to the EU and procures 75% of its raw materials from there. Every chemical sold to the EU must have an authorisation under the unregulated Brexit, and this must be issued to a company established in the EU. Conversely, any chemical imported into the UK must also be registered there. The EU database, called Reach, contains 21 000 chemicals. Of these, 5000 chemicals are registered with companies established in the UK. In extreme cases, the UK industry loses access to 16 000 chemicals.

14) Services account for around 80% of the UK's economic output. The UK is the world's second largest exporter of services. Of the £283 billion worth of exports in 2018 (45% of all UK exports), £117 billion were delivered to EU customers. In this field, the country generates a large trade surplus. The No-Deal-Brexit and the abolition of the internal market mean great legal uncertainty for British suppliers in the EU. The recognition there of many professional approvals, for example by doctors and architects, would be called into question because it has to come from an EU country.

15) Without so-called EU equivalence recognition, EU companies would no longer be able to transfer personal data to British companies without difficulty. For example, a UK conference centre could lose bookings from European customers because they violate data protection rules when they send the list of participants to the conference provider.

16) Financial services from banks, brokers and exchanges, as well as related services from insurance companies and law firms, are an important pillar of the UK economy. Their contribution to gross domestic product in 2018 was just under 8%. Without EU equivalence recognition, they face exclusion from the EU market.

17) The supply of medicines is also likely to be affected by bottlenecks and delays at the ports. Every month, 37 million packages of medicines are shipped from the EU to the UK and 45 million packages in the opposite direction. The British government has called on pharmaceutical manufacturers to build up stocks for three months. One particular concern is the supply of insulin, which is almost entirely imported from the continent.

18) Almost 6% of the labour force in the English part of the NHS comes from other EU countries, compared with 3% in Scotland. Their residence status must be clarified and secured. Similar to research and education, Brexit already discourages European professionals. There is great concern about a shortage of medical personnel, especially nurses and in rural areas.

20) The United Kingdom is part of various police and judicial systems in the EU. These include the European Search System (European Arrest Warrant), the Schengen Information System (a database on border management), Europol (a judicial authority) and databases on visa issuance, criminal records, law enforcement coordination and fingerprint identification. The No-Deal-Brexit interrupts the active participation in these systems as well as the access to all data.

Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-11 15:06|| 2019-09-11 15:06|| Front Page Top

#5 This assessment is part of our own contingency planning within my company.

Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-11 15:07|| 2019-09-11 15:07|| Front Page Top

#6 And Times River will run blood. And all the firstborn Britons (most of whom are named Muhammad) will die.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-09-11 15:31|| 2019-09-11 15:31|| Front Page Top

#7 This is not about ideology, just about cold hard money. We are prepared.

Are you?

Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-11 15:33|| 2019-09-11 15:33|| Front Page Top

#8 Jeez I've seen some crap from Y2k but that one's biblically OTT.

Hows the German economy after Merkels ginormous gimmigrant giveaway.

The economy works based on people being productive. No productivity changes in Brexit, in fact with less subsidised migration and swapping out income taxes and upping tariffs the economy can improve, after all there's no lead for the 20% internal EUSSR tariff called VAT.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2019-09-11 15:44|| 2019-09-11 15:44|| Front Page Top

#9 I loved the last one. #20.

But #19 is especially valid. Tell your planning dept head to fire his secretary, EC.☺

Posted by Dron66046 2019-09-11 15:51|| 2019-09-11 15:51|| Front Page Top

#10 Not all points are relevant to us and these are worst case scenarios but backed up by reliable sources.

Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-11 15:54|| 2019-09-11 15:54|| Front Page Top

#11 Some divorces are amicable and some are messy.

Might be somewhat of an oversimplification, I suppose.

Posted by Bobby 2019-09-11 16:08|| 2019-09-11 16:08|| Front Page Top

#12 "Tell your planning dept head to fire his secretary, EC"

LOL. But I edited #19 out myself so I'd need to fire myself :-)

Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-11 16:08|| 2019-09-11 16:08|| Front Page Top

#13

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-09-11 16:12|| 2019-09-11 16:12|| Front Page Top

#14 European Conservative, you forgot one.

The British will be able to sell their goods around the world (especially in the Commonwealth) without restrictions put in place because of EU protections on member products.

Posted by ruprecht 2019-09-11 16:26|| 2019-09-11 16:26|| Front Page Top

#15 If you read what I posted: The British will first have to MAKE all these products without relying on the European supply chain AND if they do, they will first have to make up for the losses they will suffer in the EU market and cope with new competition from all those Commonwealth countries which will be able to now sell their products in the UK at bargain prices.

Just an example: Pharmaceutical products.

Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-11 16:37|| 2019-09-11 16:37|| Front Page Top

#16 Yes people will just stop buying and selling things they'll be no substitution and the EUSSR is such an efficient market that doesnt charge high tariffs and produce such unique items that cannot be found elsewhere without any substitution.

No wonder the EUSSR economy is so screwed if what EC emotes is mainstream economic "thought".

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2019-09-11 17:15|| 2019-09-11 17:15|| Front Page Top

#17 Ask your own government:

The Yellowhammer document predicts that a no-deal Brexit would lead to food, medicine and petrol shortages, with a hard border in the island of Ireland, and "three-month meltdown" at ports unable to cope with extra checks. There could be protests requiring police action, and thousands of jobs could be lost as two oil refineries closed. A senior Whitehall source said "This is not Project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case."

Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-11 17:30|| 2019-09-11 17:30|| Front Page Top

#18 "A senior Whitehall source "

Whitehall is the centre of remainiac idiocy.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2019-09-11 18:55|| 2019-09-11 18:55|| Front Page Top

#19 This is not Project Fear? Sounds like FUD to me.

It was costly to fight Hitler and Napoleon but the British decided that independence was more important. In the end, Hitler and Napoleon paid even higher prices. The people who run the EUSSR might want to consider the lessons of history. And, once again, the British might find Americans, Canadians, New Zealanders and Australians to be helpful.

Posted by Abu Uluque 2019-09-11 19:47|| 2019-09-11 19:47|| Front Page Top

#20 I'm having Y2K flashbacks.

Posted by ruprecht 2019-09-11 19:58|| 2019-09-11 19:58|| Front Page Top

#21 Northern Ireland's goods that cross the border face tariffs of 15% or more.

I assume this already applies to US-EU trade. Pres Trump is gonna have a field day with this. What will the Euro nations do when reciprocal tariffs are applied?

Posted by Vinegar Protector of the Slytherins7734 2019-09-11 21:25|| 2019-09-11 21:25|| Front Page Top

#22 It should be part of any US-Brit free trade agreement that reciprocal EU tariffs apply. My checkbook has worn out paying others bills.

Posted by Vinegar Protector of the Slytherins7734 2019-09-11 21:28|| 2019-09-11 21:28|| Front Page Top

#23 EC, I forgot to compliment you on your elegant Shakespearean riposte last night.

I feared that someone might reply with Hotspur's "shame the devil" retort, but I see now I underestimated you.

Touche. Well done.

Posted by Lex 2019-09-11 21:58|| 2019-09-11 21:58|| Front Page Top

#24 One has to wonder how GB survived WWII.

Posted by JohnQC 2019-09-11 23:28|| 2019-09-11 23:28|| Front Page Top

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